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This is a guest post by Megan Quinn Bachman.

The failure of the Copenhagen climate talks taught us one thing—that hoping for intelligent responses to climate change from the world’s governments is an exercise in futility. It’s just not going to happen in time.

But my disappointment in government leaders in the U.S. and elsewhere is matched by my admiration for a new influential group of Americans, whom I call lifestyle leaders—for they are taking matters into their own hands, such as through building gardens, weatherizing their homes, getting rid of their cars, moving off-grid, bartering with neighbors and joining Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) programs.

Top Ten Careers

Believing this group may hold the key to the rapid dissemination of low-energy lifestyles among the general public, I conducted an online survey on two sustainability-oriented listservs in late 2009 of 2,005 of those who have made changes to their lifestyles in response to climate change, peak oil and other environmental threats.

What have these early adopters done in response to these threats? More than two-thirds of survey takers said they cut purchases, bought more local goods and services, conserved energy in their homes and put in a garden. One-sixth have started new careers, such as a truck driver who became a permaculture teacher.

And these early adopters are reaching out to others. Nine out of ten are helping others to make similar changes, mostly by talking to people and modeling sustainable behaviors. Take the case of a 40-year-old man from Pennsylvania, who helps his neighbors grow their own food. “Our goal is to produce an example of what suburbanites must do to survive the collapse of our current system,” he wrote.

What were the hardest changes to make? Driving less and changing their diet, both a product of bad habits. “Not jumping into a car every time I turned around,” was how one respondent, a 52-year old man from rural Wisconsin, explained it.

What To Do? Other barriers to effective action were cost, especially financing expensive home retrofits and renewable energy systems, lack of support from one’s family, especially when it comes to diet change, and lack of community and societal support, particularly when local food products and mass transit services were not available.

Understanding these barriers is critical—for if these exceptionally motivated individuals are held back, we can assume other people will have similar difficulties. These findings may help us all to learn what to expect.

Lifestyle changes

The good news is that it hasn’t been all hard times for these lifestyle leaders. Many changes have made their lives better, like adopting a low-energy and local diet, gardening (which was frequently described as “fun”) and walking and bicycling more. More than three-quarters of respondents reported greater happiness satisfaction or personal growth since embracing new ways of living.

Those lifestyle change leaders making the more significant reductions in fossil fuel use are pioneering a new way to live on this planet that everyone will eventually have to adopt to preserve climate stability and survive the end of the fossil fuel age. Some survey findings that may help those working to accelerate awareness and action among the general public are:

• People are driven to act in the face of global threats largely by a sense of right and wrong – their conscience – with some encouragement and inspiration from books, movies, media programs and articles.
  
• Emphasizing the positive consequences of particular lifestyle changes, and focusing on health and wellness benefits and a simpler, more satisfying life may be more effective ways to encourage change than promoting financial savings.
  
• The lack of support from one’s community and family and lack of assistance with overcoming unhelpful personal habits and attitudes are more significant roadblocks to effective response than not having enough information on what actions to take.
  
• Growing one’s own food is a popular and transformative way to begin living a more sustainable lifestyle, and may lead to a new career opportunity and the development of more community support.
  
• Most people do not feel they need to measure the impact of their lifestyle changes, but some think such feedback would motivate and assist them with doing more. Setting goals, even without measurement, is extremely helpful.
  
• Nine out of ten people plan to make additional changes, including starting or expanding a garden, installing a renewable energy system, or working with others in their local community to make broader, more systemic changes.

Instead of waiting for the results of the next climate change summit in Mexico, why not get to work as individuals and communities? Ultimately whether we meet carbon dioxide reduction targets or not comes down to what we do, or not do, as energy consumers.

As a 59-year-old rural Kentucky man said in the survey, “Though I don’t have much faith that we as a nation, or world, are willing to make the needed changes, I believe we must work toward those changes...The only true way to fail is to not try.”

Megan Quinn Bachman did this survey as part of her course work for a master’s degree in earth and environmental education at Wright State University in Fairborn, Ohio. For a complete report on the survey’s findings, email her at megan@ecowatch.org

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/55p28DaX-PM/6261

This is a guest post by Megan Quinn Bachman.

The failure of the Copenhagen climate talks taught us one thing—that hoping for intelligent responses to climate change from the world’s governments is an exercise in futility. It’s just not going to happen in time.

But my disappointment in government leaders in the U.S. and elsewhere is matched by my admiration for a new influential group of Americans, whom I call lifestyle leaders—for they are taking matters into their own hands, such as through building gardens, weatherizing their homes, getting rid of their cars, moving off-grid, bartering with neighbors and joining Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) programs.

Top Ten Careers

Believing this group may hold the key to the rapid dissemination of low-energy lifestyles among the general public, I conducted an online survey on two sustainability-oriented listservs in late 2009 of 2,005 of those who have made changes to their lifestyles in response to climate change, peak oil and other environmental threats.

What have these early adopters done in response to these threats? More than two-thirds of survey takers said they cut purchases, bought more local goods and services, conserved energy in their homes and put in a garden. One-sixth have started new careers, such as a truck driver who became a permaculture teacher.

And these early adopters are reaching out to others. Nine out of ten are helping others to make similar changes, mostly by talking to people and modeling sustainable behaviors. Take the case of a 40-year-old man from Pennsylvania, who helps his neighbors grow their own food. “Our goal is to produce an example of what suburbanites must do to survive the collapse of our current system,” he wrote.

What were the hardest changes to make? Driving less and changing their diet, both a product of bad habits. “Not jumping into a car every time I turned around,” was how one respondent, a 52-year old man from rural Wisconsin, explained it.

What To Do? Other barriers to effective action were cost, especially financing expensive home retrofits and renewable energy systems, lack of support from one’s family, especially when it comes to diet change, and lack of community and societal support, particularly when local food products and mass transit services were not available.

Understanding these barriers is critical—for if these exceptionally motivated individuals are held back, we can assume other people will have similar difficulties. These findings may help us all to learn what to expect.

Lifestyle changes

The good news is that it hasn’t been all hard times for these lifestyle leaders. Many changes have made their lives better, like adopting a low-energy and local diet, gardening (which was frequently described as “fun”) and walking and bicycling more. More than three-quarters of respondents reported greater happiness satisfaction or personal growth since embracing new ways of living.

Those lifestyle change leaders making the more significant reductions in fossil fuel use are pioneering a new way to live on this planet that everyone will eventually have to adopt to preserve climate stability and survive the end of the fossil fuel age. Some survey findings that may help those working to accelerate awareness and action among the general public are:

• People are driven to act in the face of global threats largely by a sense of right and wrong – their conscience – with some encouragement and inspiration from books, movies, media programs and articles.
  
• Emphasizing the positive consequences of particular lifestyle changes, and focusing on health and wellness benefits and a simpler, more satisfying life may be more effective ways to encourage change than promoting financial savings.
  
• The lack of support from one’s community and family and lack of assistance with overcoming unhelpful personal habits and attitudes are more significant roadblocks to effective response than not having enough information on what actions to take.
  
• Growing one’s own food is a popular and transformative way to begin living a more sustainable lifestyle, and may lead to a new career opportunity and the development of more community support.
  
• Most people do not feel they need to measure the impact of their lifestyle changes, but some think such feedback would motivate and assist them with doing more. Setting goals, even without measurement, is extremely helpful.
  
• Nine out of ten people plan to make additional changes, including starting or expanding a garden, installing a renewable energy system, or working with others in their local community to make broader, more systemic changes.

Instead of waiting for the results of the next climate change summit in Mexico, why not get to work as individuals and communities? Ultimately whether we meet carbon dioxide reduction targets or not comes down to what we do, or not do, as energy consumers.

As a 59-year-old rural Kentucky man said in the survey, “Though I don’t have much faith that we as a nation, or world, are willing to make the needed changes, I believe we must work toward those changes...The only true way to fail is to not try.”

Megan Quinn Bachman did this survey as part of her course work for a master’s degree in earth and environmental education at Wright State University in Fairborn, Ohio. For a complete report on the survey’s findings, email her at megan@ecowatch.org

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/m3hEzvq2378/6282

This is a guest post by Richard Heinberg. It is a shortened version of a longer post published by the Post Carbon Institute.

What if the economy doesn’t recover?

In 2008 the U.S. economy tripped down a steep, rocky slope. Employment levels plummeted; so did purchases of autos and other consumer goods. Property values crashed; foreclosure and bankruptcy rates bled. For states, counties, cities, and towns; for manufacturers, retailers, and middle- and low-income families, the consequences were—and continue to be—catastrophic. Other nations were soon caught up in the undertow.

In late 2009, the economy showed some signs of renewed vigor. Understandably, everyone wants it to get “back to normal.” But here’s a disturbing thought: What if that is not possible? What if the goalposts have been moved, the rules rewritten, the game changed? What if the decades-long era of economic growth based on ever-increasing rates of resource extraction, manufacturing, and consumption is over, finished, and done? What if the economic conditions that all of us grew up expecting to continue practically forever were merely a blip on history’s timeline?

It’s an uncomfortable idea, but one that cannot be ignored: The “normal” late-20^th century economy of seemingly endless growth actually emerged from an aberrant set of conditions that cannot be perpetuated.

That “normal” is gone. One way or another, a “new normal” will emerge to replace it. Can we build a different, more sustainable economy to replace the one now in tatters?

Let’s be clear: I believe we are in for some very hard times. The transitional period on our way toward a post-growth, equilibrium economy will prove to be the most challenging time any of us has ever lived through. Nevertheless, I am convinced that we can survive this collective journey, and that if we make sound choices as families and communities, life can actually be better for us in the decades ahead than it was during the heady days of seemingly endless economic expansion.

Four Propositions

The following summary statements are fundamental both to grasping our current situation and managing our way toward a desirable future:

1. We have reached the end of economic growth as we have known it. The “growth” we are talking about consists of the expansion of the overall size of the economy (with more people being served and more money changing hands) and of the quantities of energy and material goods flowing through it. The economic crisis that began in 2008 was both foreseeable and inevitable, and it marks a permanent, fundamental break from past decades—a period in which economists adopted the unrealistic view that perpetual economic growth is necessary and also possible to achieve.

As we will see, there are fundamental constraints to ongoing economic expansion, and the world is beginning to encounter those constraints. This is not to say the U.S. or the world will never see another quarter or year of growth relative to the previous year. Rather, the point is that when the bumps are averaged out, the general trend-line of the economy (measured in terms of production and consumption of real goods) will be level or downward rather than upward from now on.

2. The basic factors that will inevitably shape whatever replaces the growth economy are knowable. To survive and thrive for long, societies have to operate within the planet’s budget of sustainably extractable resources. This means that even if we don’t know exactly what a desirable post-growth economy and lifestyle will look like, we know enough to begin working toward them.

3. It is possible for economies to persist for centuries or millennia with no or minimal growth. That is how most economies operated until recent times. If billions of people (cumulatively) through countless generations lived without economic growth, we can do so as well—now and far into the future. The end of growth does not mean the end of the world.

4. Life in a non-growing economy can be fulfilling, interesting, and secure. The absence of growth does not imply a lack of change or improvement. Within a non-growing or equilibrium economy, there can still be a continuous development of practical skills, artistic expression, and technology.

In fact, some historians and social scientists argue that life in an equilibrium economy can be superior to life in a fast-growing economy: while growth creates opportunities for some, it also typically intensifies competition—there are big winners and big losers, and (as in most boom towns) the quality of relations within the community can suffer as a result. Within a non-growing economy it is possible to maximize benefits and reduce factors leading to decay, but doing so will require pursuing appropriate goals: instead of more, we must strive for better; rather than promoting increased economic activity for its own sake, we must emphasize whatever increases quality of life without stoking consumption. One way to do this is to reinvent and redefine growth itself.

The transition to a no-growth economy (or one in which growth is defined in a fundamentally different way) is inevitable, but it will go much better if we plan for it rather than simply watching in dismay as institutions we have come to rely upon fail, and then try to improvise a survival strategy in their absence.

In effect, we have to create a desirable “new normal” that fits the constraints imposed by depleting natural resources. Maintaining the “old normal” is not an option; if we do not find new goals for ourselves and plan our transition from a growth-based economy to a healthy equilibrium economy, we will by default create a much less desirable “new normal” whose emergence we are already beginning to see in the forms of persistent high unemployment, a widening gap between rich and poor, and ever more frequent and worsening financial and environmental crises—all of which translate to profound distress for individuals, families, and communities.

Journey to a New Economy

The propositions described above are the starting points for a search that can be summarized in a single question: What are the guideposts toward a livable, inviting post-growth society?

This search has in many instances entailed a literal, geographic journey. During the past few years, as I traveled the lecture circuit, I met thousands of people who had already concluded on their own that the global stage was being set for an economic crash of epic proportions. They had passed through the psychological stages of grief—denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. They were thinking creatively, building new lives, and experimenting with a wide range of strategies for meeting basic human needs while using much less of just about everything.

Some of these folks, like me, had been thinking along these lines for a long time—since the 1970s. Many were much younger, though, had learned about Peak Oil or climate change just within the past few years, and had recently decided to devote their lives to building a post-hydrocarbon world. Some were clearly members of what was known in the 1970s as the “counterculture.” Others were mainstream citizens—investment bankers, real estate sellers, high school teachers, small business owners, corporate middle managers—who had chanced upon information that awakened them forcibly from their routines. Many of these folks lived in large cities, but others in small towns or on farms; some were rich, some poor (a few by choice); some were devout, others agnostic or atheist; some were working alone on survivalist projects, while others were building community organizations; some saw the transition as a business opportunity while others were working through non-profit organizations. Here are just three examples that stand out.

In 2005, while on a lecture tour in Ireland, I met a young college teacher named Rob Hopkins who believed that life could be better without fossil fuels. He had led his students in developing an “Energy Descent Action Plan” for their town, and believed he had the seed for something larger and more significant. He soon moved back to his native England to earn his Ph.D., and designed his thesis project around helping the village of Totnes begin a cooperative, phased process of transitioning away from its dependence on fossil fuels. This project in turn led to the start of a series of Transition Initiatives in villages, towns, and neighborhoods throughout the U.K. In 2007, a version of Rob’s written Ph.D. thesis was published as a book (The Transition Handbook) that quickly began inspiring others to take up this strategy. Today there are hundreds of Transition Initiatives at various stages of development in a dozen countries (including about 60 in the U.S.).

While in Montana for a speaking engagement at the University of Montana in Helena in spring 2009, some local Peak Oil activists drove me to the town of Ronan and introduced me to Billie Lee, who had helped start Mission Mountain Food Enterprise Center. The Center is housed in a fairly small, non-descript building and features medium-scale food processing equipment that local small food producers can rent at reasonable rates. This enables small farmers to produce value-added products (everything from canned soups to herbal tea bags) that are profitable and are price-competitive with those made by industrial food companies located hundreds or thousands of miles from Ronan. Local food has become an obsession for the sustainability-minded during the past few years, and local food systems will be a necessary pillar of post-growth economies. Yet aspiring small-scale farmers often have a hard time getting started because they cannot afford the equipment to enable them to produce profitable value-added products. Here in the tiny hamlet of Ronan was an ingenious solution to the problem, and one that deserves to be replicated in every agricultural county in the nation.

On a trip to New England in 2007, I met Lynn Benander, a community energy activist and entrepreneur who had started a project called Co-op Power to bring renewable energy to low-income and multi-ethnic communities throughout the Northeast. Typically, renewable energy projects cost more to get going than conventional coal or gas power projects, and so they tend to be found in wealthier communities and regions. Conversely, the most polluting energy projects tend to be sited in or near poor neighborhoods or regions. Co-op Power aims to change that imbalance of power—in a way that any community can copy. A typical project: You help four people put up a solar hot water system and everyone comes to help you put up yours; you save 40 to 50 percent off your total system price, get to know your neighbors, and learn how your system works. Co-op Power had also pioneered a cooperative financing method that cuts through the usual roadblocks to renewable energy projects in poorer neighborhoods by leveraging member equity.

Individually, these initiatives and projects may seem to be on too small a scale to make much of a difference. But multiplied by thousands, with examples in nearly every community, they represent a quiet yet powerful movement.

Few of these efforts have gained national media attention. Most media commentators who address economic issues are focused on the prospects—positive or negative—of the existing growth-based economy. These projects don’t seem all that important within that framework of thinking. But in the new context of the no-growth economy, they may mean the difference between ruinous poverty and happy sufficiency.

The trends are already in evidence: as the financial crisis worsens, more people are planting gardens, and seed companies working hard to keep up with the demand. More young people are taking up farming now than in any recent decade. In 2008, more bicycles were sold in the U.S. than automobiles (not good news for the struggling car companies, but great news for the climate). And since the crisis started, Americans have been spending much less on non-essentials—repairing and re-using rather than replacing and adding.

Many economists assume these trends are short-term and that Americans will return to consumerism as economic crisis shifts into recovery. But if there is no “recovery” in the usual sense, then these trends will only grow.

This is what the early adopters are assuming. They believe that the nation and the world have turned a corner. They understand something the media either ignore or deny. They’re betting on a future of local food systems, not global agribusiness; of community credit co-ops rather than too-big-to-fail Wall Street megabanks; of small-scale renewable energy projects, not a world-spanning system of fossil-fuel extraction, trade, and consumption. A future in which we do for ourselves, share, and cooperate.

They’re embarking on a life after growth.

* * *

The realization that growth is at an end raises many questions. Will the financial impact be inflationary or deflationary? Will some nations fare better than others, leading to protectionist trade wars? Will the “down-sizing” of social and economic complexity lead also to a substantial die-off of the human species? How quickly will all of this happen?

There simply are no hard and fast answers to such questions. The financial, energy, food, transport, and political systems on which we rely are complex, so it is almost impossible to reliably model their response to a shock such as a resource limits-imposed end to economic growth. The only reasonable response, it seems to me, is to act as if survival is possible, and to build resilience throughout society as quickly as can be, acting locally wherever there are individuals or groups with the understanding and wherewithal. We must assume that a satisfactory, sustainable way of life is achievable in the absence of fossil fuels and conventional economic growth, and go about building it.

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World crude oil production may peak a decade earlier than some predict

In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 — almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS' Energy & Fuels, a bi-monthly journal.

Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil" — the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.

The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast.

Shale Gas Can Transform U.S. Power Generation, IHS CERA Says

(Bloomberg) -- Technology to develop natural gas from hard-to-access rock formations can expand U.S. supplies, shift the price outlook for gas and realign choices for fueling power generation, according to a study by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Gas locked in shale formations is expected to account for 50 percent of U.S. supply by 2035, up from 20 percent today, according to the report released today at the CERAWeek Conference in Houston. Shale gas is produced by a technique known as hydraulic fracturing in which millions of gallons of chemically treated water are forced into wells to break up rock and allow gas to flow

Skepticism Over OPEC's Demand Forecast

One analyst is skeptical about reports of consumption increases in China. While the OPEC report states that oil demand in China is expected to grow 4.7% year-over-year in 2010, Mark Gilman, an oil analyst with The Benchmark Company, thinks that is an overstatement.

While many reports have pointed to China as the center of spiking oil consumption, Gilman contends that the increased demand is actually a factor of inventory building rather than increased consumption. Moreover, he points out that OPEC has an interest in increasing supply in the market.

How a 22-year-old student uncovered peak oil fraud

Lionel Badal was working on his undergraduate dissertation when he suddenly found himself privy to information that he knew must be made public.

The Three most IMMINENT Economic Disasters. How to survive...

Disaster #2: Peak Oil Is Rushing Toward Us Like a Runaway Train. The only reason oil prices aren’t higher right now is because of weakness in the U.S. and European economies.

Meanwhile, however, the two most populous countries in the world — China and India — are adding to their fuel demand at a rip-roaring pace.

The Myth of Energy Breakthroughs

Renewed belief in the concept of Energy Breakthrough seems resurgent these days, as a versatile scientist now helms the Department of Energy, and famous people such as Bill Gates invoke the need (and thus our quest) for energy miracles. The notion of a technological breakthrough was also, unsurprisingly, at play this weekend when I attended the MIT Energy Conference. And of course, in February, the world was treated to the roll out of Bloom Energy’s Bloom Box.

The problem with energy breakthroughs is that they actually require a Built Environment breakthrough. Energy transition, or the notion of disruptive energy technologies, are affairs that occur at the interface between an energy-source, energy-tools, and the built environment. I suppose coal was a kind of breakthrough for early 18th century (and wood-based) England but the barrier to coal adoption was that alot of England’s built environment was running on wood. You see, new energy sources or new energy technologies don’t distribute easily, or quickly, through the built environment.

How to Reduce Foreign Oil Imports

It makes no sense for Americans to have to ditch their $30-40K SUVs in order to purchase an electric car. What we should be doing is converting these vehicles to run on natural gas. These conversion kits would cost much less than buying a new electric car and the cost of the kits would be drastically reduced were the volume to go up with prudent government policy changes.

Norway Oil Output Falls, May Signal Lower Statoil Production

(Bloomberg) -- Norway’s crude production fell for a second consecutive month in February from a year earlier, possibly signaling lower-than-estimated output at Statoil ASA in the first three months of the year.

Norway’s oil production dropped 7.4 percent to 2.007 million barrels a day in February from a year earlier, after a 5.7 percent annual decline in January, according to preliminary figures published today by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. Stavanger-based Statoil operates about 80 percent of the Scandinavian nation’s petroleum production.

Argentina May Limit Fuel Exports to Ensure Supply

(Bloomberg) -- Argentina may limit fuel exports and force refineries to step up production to ensure domestic supplies after Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc cut output.

Petrobras and Shell pared refinery output in Argentina to push up gasoline prices, Planning Minister Julio de Vido said today in a statement.

“There’s been a decision by these companies to refine less oil to cause this shortage situation,” de Vido said in the statement. The government may “regulate fuel exports so that local markets may be properly supplied” and “intervene so that these refineries utilize their maximum capacity.”

Where Policy Starts for Right Now

Here in the United States, consumers expect to have a reliable and affordable supply of energy that helps them heat their homes and fuel their transportation needs. Consumers today also are grappling with a serious economic environment. Job losses and uncertainty make it difficult to plan for the future. Having a stable source of energy can help. In fact, expanding energy exploration and production can have a positive impact on the U.S. economy and the lives of all Americans.

Google Maps now features bike lanes

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. - Google Inc. is adding a bike lane with its latest online mapping option.

The new bicycling directions available on Google Maps starting Wednesday supplement the guidance already provided to motorists and pedestrians. The biking directions initially will be available only for the United States.

Oil King Warns Of 'Green Bubble'

It's Ghawar that is of utmost interest to the industry. The biggest oilfield ever found, it has been producing for five decades, often putting out more than 5 million bpd, a level that Aramco has been able to maintain by injecting millions of barrels a day of water into the field to push up the oil. Cynics in the Peak Oil crowd say that an ulterior motive of Aramco adding so much unneeded capacity is to prepare for the pending collapse of Ghawar.

Al-Khalid says that couldn't be further from the truth. Ghawar is currently producing above 5 million bpd, and he says it will be able to do 4 million bpd for more than a decade. "Ghawar still has recoverable reserves equivalent to 55 billion barrels. As we improve our technology we will add to Ghawar's reserves." This is not a homogeneous field, he says. "There are reservoirs in the north that are in gentle decline. While some areas of the field like Haradh are nearly virgin."

Official: Saudis have plenty of oil capacity as demand returns

Arabia’s 4 million barrels a day of spare capacity can easily be absorbed into the market when global energy demand recovers after the recession, the head of the kingdom’s state-owned oil company said today.

“Oil supply will decline if there is no investment, so that 4 million could be absorbed by demand alone,” said Khalid al-Falih, chief executive officer of the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., in a speech today at a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston.

CERAWEEK - Oil companies take more risks with price rebound

HOUSTON (Reuters) - A rebound in oil prices has encouraged oil and gas companies to take more risks in their quest for reserves, drilling deeper in more remote waters or finding new sources of energy, top executives said on Tuesday.

After the trauma of oil's 2008 collapse and tentative recovery last year, oil executives at the CERAWeek annual conference brimmed with confidence in the future of oil, particularly in the wake of high-profile successes in the ultradeep waters in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil.

CERAWEEK 2010: On ‘Oil Day,' most see a future in fossil fuels

On one side was the oil and gas industry, which said fossil fuels will be the dominant energy source for decades and that improving technology and abundant natural gas supplies hold the potential to extend that life further.

Vastly outnumbered on the other was Energy Secretary Steven Chu, who said the U.S. must accelerate efforts to wean itself from oil in what will amount to a “new industrial revolution,” or risk losing the clean technology race to other countries and doing further damage to the environment.

Top oil user, producer agree on oil dominance

HOUSTON (Reuters) - The world's top oil producer and consumer agreed on one thing when they took the podium at a high-profile energy conference on Tuesday: The world is unlikely to kick its oil habit anytime soon.

Jeff Rubin: Looking for oil demand in all the wrong places

It certainly wasn’t U.S. fuel demand that took oil prices over $100 (U.S.) in the first place, and it won’t be U.S. fuel demand that will push them back into that range any time soon. U.S. oil consumption is almost 3 million barrels per day short of its pre-recession peak -- a level never to be regained, just as U.S. motor vehicle sales will never again see the levels that prevailed before the recession. Ditto for oil consumption in Canada, Western Europe, Japan, or, for that matter, anywhere in the OECD economies.

Back in the 1990s, that kind of demand contraction in the OECD would have foretold a big decline in oil prices, since those countries accounted for almost three quarters of global oil demand. Today, they account for barely half, and tomorrow they will account for even less.

Is East Africa the Next Frontier for Oil?

According to local lore, Portuguese travelers as far back as the late 19th century suspected oil might lie beneath parts of East Africa after noticing a thick, greasy sediment wash up on the shores of Mozambique. More interested in finding cheap labor, though, the explorers had little use for oil.

A century on, it turns out the Portuguese were right. Seismic tests over the past 50 years have shown countries up the coast of East Africa have natural gas in abundance. Early data compiled by industry consultants also suggest the presence of massive offshore oil deposits. Those finds have spurred oil explorers to start dropping more wells in East Africa, a region they say is an oil and gas bonanza just waiting to be tapped, one of the last great frontiers in the hunt for hydrocarbons.

Gazprom Neft Posts $638 Million Quarterly Net, Reversing Loss

(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russia’s state gas producer, posted profit in the fourth quarter as crude prices and output rose.

Net income increased to $638 million after a net loss of $543 million in the year earlier period, the St. Petersburg- based oil producer said today in an e-mailed statement. Adjusted for a loss on asset sales, net came to $861 million. The result missed the $955 million median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Europe Needs to Push Gas Infrastructure Spending, Scaroni Says

(Bloomberg) -- Europe should promote spending on infrastructure to deliver natural gas to consumers from new sources of the fuel from Africa, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, Eni SpA Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni said.

FACTBOX - Facts about Venezuela's energy crisis

(Reuters) - Venezuela's worsening electricity crisis, caused in part by a drought linked to the El Nino climate phenomenon, puts its $300 billion economy at risk of contraction and may cut the OPEC country's oil product exports.

Report: Egypt imports 47% of its diesel fuel

A recent report issued by the state-run Egyptian General Petroleum Authority (EGPA) revealed that Egypt imported 5.6 million tons of diesel fuel in the 2008/2009 fiscal year at a total cost of LE9.5 billon, accounting for 47 percent of total domestic consumption. The figures suggest that the country is suffering from a serious shortage of petroleum resources.

Diesel shortage claims first fatality

Shortages of diesel fuel and gasoline continued for the third consecutive day in Cairo and the governorates. The crisis claimed its first fatality on Tuesday in Sharqiya, where a local resident was reportedly killed in a fight with his relatives over who would be first to fill up their tractors.

Argentina to import gasoline for first time in 30 years

Argentine oil company YPF has said that it plans to import 50 million litres of gasoline as demand outstrips supply in the South American nation.

Argentina, an oil-producing country where fuel is subject to government price controls, has not imported gasoline in 30 years.

Indonesia: Natural gas supply to see 23.3 percent deficit this year

Natural gas supply and demand in 2010 will see a deficit of 23.3 percent based on demand specified in contracts and commitments combined in relation to available supply. The shortage equals to 2,554 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), an official says.

Monbiot vs. Leggett duking it out over solar panels and feed-in tariffs

Those who hate environmentalism have spent years looking for the definitive example of a great green rip-off. Finally it arrives, and nobody notices. The government is about to shift £8.6bn from the poor to the middle classes. It expects a loss on this scheme of £8.2bn, or 95%. Yet the media is silent. The opposition urges only that the scam should be expanded.

North Korea Trying to Reverse Urbanization

The North Korean authorities are reportedly offering an incentive to city dwellers, cadres of the party apparatus and the People’s Security Agency in an attempt to encourage them to move to rural areas.

...In the lectures, the authorities explained that a severe shortage of manpower in agricultural areas needed to be made up, and asked cadres to step forward and help.

Korea faces a long road in resources race

Korea’s state-run energy companies, such as the KNOC, are now struggling to secure independent supplies, but the country lacks China’s financial resources. Government officials who toured oil-rich nations in Africa said they now realize how aggressive China has become.

“I was puzzled after hearing from Angolan government officials that there was no point in talking unless we were going to invest billions of dollars,” Lee Jae-hoon, a former vice minister of knowledge economy, said at a seminar, discussing a trip to explore and acquire rights to African oil fields. “China was easily offering billions of dollars, while we only suggested hundreds of millions maximum. We were simply no competition for China.”

China's Feb copper, oil imports surprisingly strong

BEIJING - Copper and oil were in surprisingly strong demand in China in February, with imports rising despite a week-long Lunar New Year holiday and a crippling winter freeze that iced up many of the country's northern ports.

Trade in other commodities, such as iron ore, steel, and soybeans, slowed or remained close to sluggish January levels.

World Bank Gives South Africa Lumps of Coal

In case you didn't catch it, the World Bank's top official for Africa just thumbed her nose at the dozens of renewable energy companies lining up to build clean energy in Africa's dirtiest economy.

Obiageli Ezekwesili, the Bank's Vice President for Africa, defended a controversial $3.75-billion loan to build a massive coal plant in South Africa with this head-in-the-sand statement: "There is no viable alternative to safeguard South Africa's energy security at this particular time."

Alternative energy 'needs to be proven'

Australia will struggle to reduce its contribution to global greenhouse emissions unless a viable alternative energy source can be developed within the next decade, Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson says.

The federal government is investing in biofuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS) research, but beyond that, it insists it does not want to pick winners in the alternative energy sector.

German fishing boat flies giant kite to save fuel

Germany's largest fishing vessel will leave the Netherlands this week, towed by a giant kite harnessing trade winds for South America that will help cut its fuel consumption by up to a third.

The 15,000 tonne 'Maartje Theadora' is the first fishing vessel to use the system, in which a 160 square metre blue and white kite similar to a paraglider pulls the ship on a 300 metre rope, assisting its main engine.

Impact of 'Cash for Clunkers' was underestimated, researchers say

Search online for “Cash for Clunkers,” and here’s one thing you’ll find: stories about its negligible overall impact on the economy.

Wrong, says Maritz Automotive Research Group. The Toledo, Ohio, independent automotive research company recently surveyed participants in last summer’s federal program designed to stimulate new-car sales and get gas-guzzlers off the road. On Tuesday, the company shared its results.

One key finding: 90 percent of those participating in Cash for Clunkers said they would not otherwise have bought a new car.

Increased Solar Radiation Requires Additional CO2 Reduction of 50 Million Tonnes, Analysis Finds

ScienceDaily — The recently observed reduction in air pollution implies that more solar radiation reaches the Earth's surface. This could lead to a far more rapid increase in the Earth's temperature in the coming decades than has previously been expected based on calculations of CO2 emissions alone.

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Looming Fiscal Storm

All this says that despite the incessant media repetition that the economic situation is getting better, there is growing evidence that the economy is in fact growing worse. Federal Reserve support of the Treasury security market and purchases of mortgage backed securities is supposed to end in the next few months. Many fear that this action will send interest rates much higher before the year is out.

Where all this leaves oil prices is not yet clear. Gasoline has been rising in recent weeks and now averages $2.75 nationwide. If normal patterns pertain this year, we could see $3 gasoline by summer, but these are not normal times. Two years ago high gas prices are believed to have done much damage to the economy. Asian and Middle Eastern demand for oil appears to be on track to remain strong. But even China's leaders are becoming concerned about too much pointless growth. Geopolitical dangers ranging from the Venezuelan drought to Iran and political stagnation in Iraq remain.

Oil drifts near $81 amid mixed US inventory data

Crude inventories jumped last week by 6.5 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday. Analysts, eyeing a cold weather spell in much of the U.S. this month, had expected a drop of 1.6 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

However, inventories of gasoline and distillates fell more than analysts expected, the API said.

Gas prices’ run likely won’t top $3

As the economy recovers, energy prices are rising and that is placing extra strain on families' budgets.

Each spring brings a familiar ritual in gasoline markets — rising prices — and this year won't be an exception. But motorists aren't likely to pay much more than $3 a gallon, on average, during the peak summer driving season.

OPEC Raises Forecast for Oil Demand on Lower NGL Estimate

(Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it will need to pump more crude than previously forecast this year after cutting its outlook for production of natural gas liquids.

OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, predicts members will need to produce 28.94 million barrels a day to satisfy demand in 2010. That’s about 190,000 barrels a day more than last month’s projection. Still, OPEC expects demand for its crude this year to be lower than last year after it increased its estimate for 2009 by 200,000 barrels a day.

Saudi Aramco to Invest $90B in O&G Projects to 2015

The development and deployment of viable alternatives to fossil fuels "does remain an open question," Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Khalid Al-Falih said Tuesday.

Speaking at an IHS CERA conference in Houston, Al-Falih said that oil still underpins the global economy and is likely to remain at the core of the world's energy needs in the future. The conference, known as CERAWeek, reunites some of the world's top oil and gas executives.

OPEC President Vows to Reduce Oil-Price Speculation, Volatility

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Germanico Pinto said he will seek to reduce price speculation and volatility during his term as leader of the oil cartel, adding to calls from the U.S. to Europe for measures to minimize market swings.

“The fact that there’s volatility produces difficulties in the markets and in defining a long-term strategy for public investment in the oil industry,” Pinto, who is also Ecuador’s minister of natural non-renewable resources, said yesterday in a statement.

Natural gas focus of oil conference, pointing to source of future

For years, the so-called Oil Day of the annual IHS CERA energy conference, which draws thousands of industry executives to Houston, has been the highlight of this weeklong event. It comes first - before Gas Day and Power Day. The biggest names are keynote speakers that day (This year, for example, Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, was among the keynote speakers). And attendence is at its highest.

But the irony of how natural gas is beginning to overtake oil in importance to the industry was underscored by the lunchtime keynote speaker Jim Mulva, chief executive of ConocoPhillips, the third biggest US oil and gas company. Even though Conoco is an oil company first and foremost, and Mr Mulva was speaking on Oil Day to a room filled with oil executives, his speech was called Natural Gas - The Gift.

Musings: Gas Shales May Change More Than U.S. Energy Markets

The U.S. natural gas industry has been focused on the effect the commerciality of gas shale formations is having on the domestic industry. One result is that after years of declining gas production, the U.S. has experienced a rise in domestic supplies. Secondly, the Potential Gas Committee has suggested, based on its study, the country has huge gas resources that can be developed with today’s drilling and completion technologies. They did not, however, suggest that all the potential natural gas resources identified are commercial at current gas prices, and especially at the sub-$5 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) prices being experienced now. One of the key new basins that will supply this growth in natural gas production is the Marcellus Shale that extends from West Virginia through Pennsylvania and Ohio and into New York. Reportedly this is the largest basin in areal extent (95,000 square miles vs. 5,000 square miles for the Barnett Shale) and possibly in the amount of gas potential with an estimated 500 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of reserves.

Royal Dutch Shell stops gasoline sales to Iran - trade

DUBAI (Reuters) - Oil major Royal Dutch Shell has stopped gasoline sales to Iran, oil traders said on Wednesday, the latest addition to a growing list of firms that have halted supplies under threat of future U.S. sanctions.

The Anglo-Dutch oil firm will join the likes of BP, Reliance Industries (RELI.BO), and independent Swiss trader Glencore, among suppliers that have either stopped fuel sales to Iran or have made a decision not to enter into new trading agreements with the world's fifth largest oil exporter.

"Shell has stopped selling gasoline to Iran, we have not seen them there for a while now," a gasoline trader said.

Russia lowers oil export tariff

The Russian government said it had lowered its oil export tariff from the current 270.7 U.S. dollars per ton to 253.6 dollars, starting March 1.

Tullow Says Total, Cnooc to Help Ramp Up Ugandan Oil Production

(Bloomberg) -- Tullow Oil Plc said the addition of China National Offshore Oil Corp. and Total SA as its partners in Uganda will allow the U.K. explorer to ramp up production from the African nation.

Ugandan oil output may exceed 200,000 barrels a day beyond 2014 after starting next year, Chief Operating Officer Paul McDade said today. Tullow expects Cnooc and Total to each take a one-third stake in its three blocks in the Lake Albert region, subject to government approval.

Land Rig Review: Land Rig Utilization Trends

Although the recent land rig hiring spree has gone a long way towards improving utilization, total land rig utilization still has room for improvement. With the 2005-2009 construction cycle helping to increase available land rig supply by over 1,000 net units, a rig surplus remains despite the ongoing recovery. It is also worth noting that today's hottest onshore plays require higher spec rigs, thus some of the more marginal capacity has been left out of the recovery in demand and overall supply should be discounted to some extent due to legacy equipment.

OPEC's Oil Output on the Rise - Platts Survey

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' crude oil production rose to 29.31 million barrels per day (b/d) in February, an increase of 60,000 (b/d) from an estimated January level of 29.25 million b/d, according to a just-released Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts.

Excluding Iraq, which does not participate in the oil producing group's production agreements, output from the 11 members bound by quotas (OPEC-11) -- under a 24.845 million b/d collective target -- dipped by 10,000 b/d to 26.75 million b/d in February.

Increases totaling 170,000 b/d from Angola, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Venezuela were partly offset by decreases totaling 110,000 b/d from Libya and Nigeria, the latter's production dropping by 100,000 b/d to 1.98 million b/d in February.

PREVIEW - Arms, energy to dominate Russia's Putin India trip

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Premier Vladimir Putin will offer a traditional cocktail of arms and oil deals when he travels to India on Thursday to persuade a Cold War ally to buy new weapons amid rising competition with the United States.

The Russian economy shrank by 7.9 percent last year after a decade of oil-fuelled boom and Putin sees the defence sector as key to reviving growth. But Moscow often needs to offer incentives to sell its usually outdated military equipment.

India Is Seeking Coal Deals in Australia, ANZ Says

(Bloomberg) -- Indian companies are stepping up interest to secure coal resources in Indonesia and Australia to meet the power needs of the world’s second-most populous country, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

Natural gas crystals: Energy under the sea

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It looks like ice -- but this ice could one day be used to heat your home.

It's actually not ice at all, but crystallized natural gas, and if scientists can figure out how to harvest it cheaply enough, it could become a vast new source of energy available in just about every country in the world.

Offshore wind farm a no-go in Jefferson County

The head of the New York Power Authority addressed the Jefferson County Legislature Tuesday night to clear up misconceptions and encourage the board to entertain the idea of an offshore wind farm, but legislators were not swayed on their opposition.

A Rough Rollout for Smart Meters in Texas

So-called “smart” electric meters, heralded as vital for an energy-conscious era, are having a rough rollout in Texas.

The devices, which enable utilities to vary their rates according to the time of day, allow consumers to save money — in theory. But according to The Dallas Morning News, hundreds of Texas customers have called to complain that the meters, which are being installed by a Dallas-based electric company called Oncor, are inaccurately raising their electric bills.

Japan, New Mexico collaborate on smart grid tech

SANTA FE, N.M. – Two national laboratories, the state of New Mexico and a Japanese agency are developing smart grid technology to give homeowners and businesses more access to renewable energy sources by controlling the supply and demand of electric power.

US Department of Energy to grant $40m for development of next generation nuclear plant

The award has been made to Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse Electric and San Diego-based General Atomics.

The US Department of Energy (DoE) has revealed selections for the award of approximately $40m in total to two teams led by Westinghouse Electric and General Atomics for conceptual design and planning work for the next generation nuclear plant (NGNP).

Debating the Nuclear Waste Problem

With Nevada’s Yucca Mountain facility apparently out of the picture as a nuclear waste repository, government nuclear experts say interim measures might be needed for a very long time.

Drought Has Venezuela Looking at Alternatives to Hydropower

A severe drought in Venezuela appears to be pushing the country’s president, Hugo Chávez, to ramp up efforts to diversify the country’s energy portfolio.

Up to now, hydropower has been the major energy source in Venezuela — providing residents and industry with up to two-thirds of the total electricity produced. But a record lack of rainfall has resulted in low water flows and several power interruptions — as well as angry recriminations of the government from some Venezuelans ahead of upcoming legislative elections scheduled for September.

New Zealand: Govt's $21 Billion Bet On Cheap Petrol

This week, Shell CEO Peter Voser joined a growing chorus of voices announcing the end to cheap oil. When asked about whether the theory of "peak oil" was dead the theory that oil production will no longer be able to keep up with demand Mr Voser said "I think what is dead is cheap oil."

"This Government is placing all their bets on electric car technology to keep us moving in the future. But the new cars are expensive, their uptake will be slow, and they don't solve the problem of congestion or where the power will come from," said Dr Norman.

Rail summit rallies support

Mark Robynowitz, was one of two attendees to frame the projects through the lens of peak oil projections, said he believed the federal money would probably only be enough to fix up existing wear and tear, and less highway- and automobile-related expenditures to fund the project should be considered.

“One of the ways that we could afford to improve the trains is to transfer funds from widening (Interstate 5), which the state has to spend billions on, towards fixing the rail ... The Amtrak Cascade is capable of going a 120 miles per hour, but it can barely go half that on most of the routes because the rail network is decrepit.”

Future of public transit in Orillia is now

There are many reasons why limiting automobile useage is considered important -- in large cities gridlock is a multimillion-dollar problem; air pollution is far worse than many people believe (5,800 premature deaths due to smog in southern Ontario, according to the Ontario Medical Association in 2005); climate change; inactive lifestyles leading to fantastically spiking diabetes and obesity rates; parking problems; and recurrent "peak oil" concerns regarding how much petroleum is actually left in the earth to fuel our cars.

All of these problems were considered in a 2007 report titledHealthy Communities, Sustainable Communities: The 21st Century Planning Challenge.

Write a sequel to Ridge author’s book

“GETI’s main objective in promoting the writing contest is to create awareness that peak oil and climate change are issues that will force change upon us,” said CEED director, Gerry Pinel.

“To prepare for those changes, GETI’s mandate is to build resiliency into our area through grassroots-driven, community-based initiatives. We have a positive vision of our community’s future and this writing contest is a great start in that direction.”

Athamas Hedge Fund Will Sell More Wood, Fewer Carbon Credits

(Bloomberg) -- A forestry and carbon hedge fund proposed by Athamas SA will focus on wood rather than carbon credits after United Nations climate talks in December failed to set international targets after 2012.

First Climate Seeks $136 Million for Carbon Credits After 2012

(Bloomberg) -- First Climate AG said it signed letters of intent with major European utilities to invest in projects that may generate emission credits good after 2012.

Sun Activity Reaches Century Low, May Slow Warming ‘Slightly’

(Bloomberg) -- Solar activity is at its lowest level in almost 100 years and should that continue may slow the pace of global warming “slightly,” Potsdam Institute for Climate Research scientists said today in a study.

Climate Myths and Questions, Part II

In Part One of our series, we looked at polar bears, hockey sticks, Medieval Warm Periods and Little Ice Ages, among other topics. Today our list includes water vapor, volcanoes, and CO2.

California global warming law may lead to job losses, report says

Debate over the economic effects of California's first-in-the-nation global warming law flared this week, with a report saying short-term job losses can be expected.

China unsure on warming cause, to stick with CO2 cuts

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's top climate negotiator said on Wednesday that the cause of global warming was still not clear but the problems it was creating were so serious that the world must anyway act to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

China urges greater US commitments on climate change, technical and financial support

BEIJING - China told the United States on Wednesday to make stronger commitments on climate change and provide environmental expertise and financing to developing nations.

At the same time, China said its own efforts to reduce energy intensity have been hampered by its economic recovery in the latter part of last year, which brought growth in heavy energy-consuming industries.

At White House: 14 senators discuss climate-energy legislation

The fate of President Obama's plan to shift America toward renewable energy and away from fossil fuels may depend on the outcome of a crucial White House meeting Tuesday with 14 key senators, many from coal- and oil-producing states, who have long opposed curbs on carbon emissions.

Mr. Obama – often criticized for being too hands off on complex and controversial climate-energy legislation after it became stalled in the Senate last year – now appears to be making a full-court press to win the 60 votes he needs for Senate passage of revamped climate-energy legislation, several observers agree.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/5nzrHB3uhjE/6268

This is a guest post by Brian Gordon.

If employment is inversely proportional to oil prices (it is), and oil prices are only going to trend up…then employment by necessity is going down. Because oil is so fundamental to our economy, oil price increases ripple through the entire economy.

Take food as an example: current factory farming methods are entirely dependent upon oil from planting to processing to getting the food to market. Certain types of food are also heavily subsidised, especially meat and dairy. Note that these subsidies do not necessarily include oil subsidies, taxpayer-provided roads, subsidised water, and so on. As the price of oil increases, so goes the price of food; in fact this has already been happening in Canada and the United States. Note especially the increase in transportation costs, and both sources cite rises in fuel as a primary driver of inflation, so-to-speak.

If we take subsidised, oil-based factory farming prices as our minimum, and locally-grown, unsubsidised, organic (requiring little or no oil) prices as our maximum, in an environment where oil prices are increasing then the prices of factory-grown foods will tend to approach – and ultimately exceed – those of locally-grown organic.

Now, anybody who has done any grocery shopping recently knows that organic produce, meat, and dairy costs considerably more than factory-grown food, sometimes double or more. As the price of oil increases, more shoppers will switch to organic. Why not? If the cost differential evaporates, why not buy organic?

There is a big problem with this.

Let’s assume this does not drive up the price of organic, because factory farms switch to organic. This is easier said than done, and there are still plenty of oil-based costs (e.g.: for transportation) that will drive up the price of both organic and non-organic food. However, let’s be generous and ignore that.

If all food approaches the price of organic food, everyone not currently buying organic will see their food budget increase proportionally. As food is a necessity, cutbacks will be made elsewhere. Entertainment, purchases of non-necessities, etc. will decline, reducing jobs in those sectors.

Voila, food price increases translate to lower overall employment, aka a recession.

On the plus side, organic agriculture requires more labour and less oil, so there will be jobs there. On the downside, those jobs are typically very hard work for very little pay, which is why we use migrant workers. As long as we continue to do that, there will be unemployed Canadians and Americans with no income to buy the now much more expensive organic produce and animal products.

One way for people to compensate will be to eat less meat, as factory-grown meat is far more energy-intensive compared to vegetables, and therefore will be affected more by oil price increases. Compare the price of free range, organic beef to feedlot beef in your local grocery store, for example. Meat is also one of the most heavily subsidised foods, and no doubt there will be considerable pressure on governments to increase subsidies to keep meat prices down.

How long that can go on is uncertain. Because Canadian and U.S. governments are already heavily in debt and running deficits, any additional subsidies are added to the national debt and increase the deficit. That is clearly unsustainable, and eventually real food prices will have to be paid. The longer the subsidies remain in place, the greater the ultimate pain.

Suggested books if you want to learn more

The books below discuss in more detail some of the ideas mentioned in this post.

The first book (see Book 1) is Plenty: Eating Locally on the 100-Mile Diet – something the authors found a tremendous challenge. And they live in British Columbia, where far more can be grown than anywhere else in Canada. They found certain foods were simply no longer available. As oil prices rise, locally-grown foods will be favoured, so there are important lessons in this book.

Book 1: Plenty: Eating Locally on the 100-Mile Diet

The second book (see Book 2) specifically discusses the link between fossil fuels and our food. Pay special attention to the third bullet point…

The miracle of the Green Revolution was made possible by cheap fossil fuels to supply crops with artificial fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation. Estimates of the net energy balance of agriculture in the United States show that ten calories of hydrocarbon energy are required to produce one calorie of food. Such an imbalance cannot continue in a world of diminishing hydrocarbon resources.

Eating Fossil Fuels examines the interlinked crises of energy and agriculture and highlights some startling findings:

• The worldwide expansion of agriculture has appropriated fully 40 percent of the photosynthetic capability of this planet.


• The Green Revolution provided abundant food sources for many, resulting in a population explosion well in excess of the planet’s carrying capacity.


• Studies suggest that without fossil fuel-based agriculture, the United States could only sustain about two-thirds of its present population. For the planet as a whole, the sustainable number is estimated to be about two billion.

Book 2: Eating Fossil Fuels

The next two books (see Books 3 and 4) are about growing your own vegetables, something we might all want to look into.

Book 3: Solar Gardening

Victory Gardens provided much food to Britons and Americans during World War II, and Dmitri Orlov has said that home gardens saved a lot of Russians following the collapse of the Soviet Union. We should all be developing some self-sufficiency skills.

Book 4: The New Organic Grower

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/Rs0AKoJR-vk/6280

Shell's discounted bid for Arrow reflects the present world oversupply of gas

The bid and Arrow's decision to take it seriously despite the price discount reflect the much more complicated outlook for gas in the wake of the global financial crisis, and after the development of technology that is capable of doubling the world's gas reserves.

There is an awful lot of gas in the ground, enough perhaps to break the nexus between gas prices and oil prices. The peak oil argument that oil prices will rise inexorably as producers fail to bring new production on stream fast enough and cheaply enough to replace diminishing reserves simply does not apply. That knowledge both impels the $3.2 billion offer Shell and PetroChina have launched, and dictates that Arrow take it seriously.

Saudi Aramco chief warns of 'green bubbles'

Saudi Aramco chief Khalid Al-Falih warned today of "green bubbles" and expressed worry about "assumptions" in the political realm that alternative energy sources could "transform the face of energy overnight".

Gazprom Neft Says Russian Taxes Tripping Up Deals, Expansion

(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russia’s gas export monopoly, said Russian taxes are hindering ventures with international oil companies and are the main obstacle for its expansion at home and abroad.

“The main problem is the tax regime,” Alexander Pankratov, head of business development at the St. Petersburg- based company, said yesterday in an interview at the CERAWeek conference organized by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Houston.

US Crude Outlook - Improving crack spreads give lift

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Improving refinery crack spreads could boost feedstock demand and lift cash crude differentials, especially if oil futures back away from the $81 level as many analysts expect,

Chevron Drives Upstream Growth with LNG Projects

Chevron enters the decade with an upstream portfolio of major capital projects that uniquely positions the company for future growth, executives said today at a meeting with financial analysts in New York. In the downstream business, executives highlighted plans to improve returns by aggressively lowering costs, exiting markets and streamlining the organization.

Gabrielli: pre-salt supply chain tight

While operating in Brazil's pre-salt region does require an array of technologies, Petrobras CEO Jose Gabrielli told a Houston lunch that a bigger challenge lies in meeting logistical demands for operating in deep waters offshore. During the Brazil-Texas Chamber of Commerce event on 9 March 2010, Gabrielli said it is important to focus on 'the hubs that we must develop for our people and goods 300km from our coastline.' For the pre-salt, he elaborated, 'the main challenge that we have is much more on logistics, on the optimization of the knowledge we have.'

The opportunities in pre-salt, he said, are big, but they also require a new hub for suppliers. 'We believe the most important constraint that we may have is in the supply chain,' Gabrielli said.

Nigeria May Push for Higher OPEC Oil Quota, NNPC Says

(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria may seek to increase its OPEC oil production quota if output remains free from militant disruption, an official from state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corp. said today.

Chevron cutting 2,000 jobs in refining restructuring

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chevron Corp. said Tuesday it plans to cut 2,000 jobs this year as part of an effort to realize savings in its refining operations, as the oil major signals that recent woes in the business of making gasoline and diesel fuel will persist well beyond 2010.

Sinopec Shanghai Says China Should Raise Fuel Prices

(Bloomberg) -- China should increase fuel prices to prevent domestic refiners from incurring losses in March and April, said a unit of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the country’s biggest refiner.

Egypt: Petroleum ministry denies diesel shortage

Sufficient amounts of diesel are available on the local market as planned, said the Ministry of Petroleum, despite recent overcrowding at gas stations and reports of shortages.

Clashes at gas stations as diesel crisis escalates

Diesel fuel shortages continued in Cairo and the governorates on Monday, leading to clashes between frustrated drivers lining up outside gas stations. The Petroleum Ministry, however, has denied the existence of any shortfalls in the quantities of diesel fuel supplied to gas stations.

Shortages of both 80-octane and 90-octane gasoline have also been reported in a number of governorates.

U.S. Sitting on Mother Lode of Rare Tech-Crucial Minerals

China supplies most of the rare earth minerals found in technologies such as hybrid cars, wind turbines, computer hard drives and cell phones, but the U.S. has its own largely untapped reserves that could safeguard future tech innovation.

Those reserves include deposits of both "light" and "heavy" rare earths — families of minerals that help make everything from TV displays to magnets in hybrid electric motors. A company called U.S. Rare Earths holds the only known U.S. deposit of heavy rare earths with a concentration worth mining, according to a recent report by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

S.Korea unveils 'recharging road' for eco-friendly buses

South Korean researchers Tuesday launched an environmentally friendly public transport system using a "recharging road" -- with a vehicle sucking power magnetically from buried electric strips.

The Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV), towing three buses, went into service at an amusement park in southern Seoul. If the prototype proves successful, there are plans to try it out on a bus route in the capital.

Short-staffed agency overseeing high-speed-rail effort draws fire

WASHINGTON — The federal agency in charge of $8 billion in economic stimulus spending on high-speed-rail projects doesn't have the staff or expertise to properly oversee the money, government investigators and congressional critics say.

The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), whose main job until now had been keeping freight and passenger railroads safe, awarded the high-speed-rail grants in January — months later than planned.

Libraries

Even more useful than the books or activities, though, is the principle behind libraries, that we and our neighbours can pool our resources and hold things in common that all of us occasionally need. Most of the Western World, however, adopted this principle for books and then stopped, never extending it to other obvious areas of life.

In fact, the trend of the last few decades has been the opposite – people bought more and more of their own private stocks of anything, no matter how expensive or little-used: a row of ten family homes might have ten rakes, ten chainsaws, ten barbecue pits and ten Dora the Explorer videos, each of which is used for only a few hours a year.

More urbanites have their pick of fresh fruit

Last fall, Eric Alperin, a San Francisco artist, heard about blackberries, plums and loquats growing on public property in his city and free for the picking.

Armed with bags and a pole device for picking fruit from tall branches, Alperin and his wife went foraging.

"It was great," he said. "We picked as much as we could carry and had beautiful, fresh, free city fruit," Alperin said. "I'll definitely go (picking) again." Fruit-picking opportunities like that are becoming more common, as volunteers in cities including Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia and Madison, Wis., mobilize behind a goal of planting fruit trees on public land in city parks and neighborhoods.

Agritourism helps Tennessee farms stay in business

NASHVILLE — In a tough year for Tennessee's state budget, the departments of tourism and agriculture have found a mutual silver lining: a boomlet in agricultural tourism.

Milking cows (sort of), wandering through corn and cotton mazes, watching chicks hatch, having a country wedding and picking melons are among the activities drawing city folks and their pocketbooks to farms around Tennessee.

CERAWeek panel: Developing nations key to future

A shifting center of gravity from the developed to the developing world will redefine the energy landscape over the next two decades.

That's the theme that emerged from the first panel discussion of this year's IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' IHS CERAWeek conference in downtown Houston. The discussion kicked off five days of panels and lectures featuring top energy executives, policy makers and analysts.

Growing economies in Asia, particularly China, and the Middle East, will shape the supply and demand dynamic of everything from oil and gas demand to electricity to the development of renewable energy sources.

“What will fill the demand?” asked Xizhou Zhou, a China expert with IHS CERA.

“The answer to that question is, really, everything.”

Energy takes stage: CERAWeek offers wealth of information

If you’re into energy, this week is Christmas in March in Houston. It’s CERAWeek, the five-day confab covering all things energy-related. For the cognoscenti, it’s brimful of gifts of information and informed opinion.

CERAWeek is the brainchild of Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power and chairman of IHS-Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a leading think tank/consultant on energy topics.

CERAWeek offers something for everyone interested in energy — oil, alternatives, the environment, coal, utilities and on and on for a full five days. But this year our attention will be focused on Wednesday’s daylong session on natural gas. And T. Boone Pickens is why.

CERAWEEK - FACTBOX: What are the big issues for CERAWeek?

(Reuters) - The symbiotic link between oil and the economy will dominate CERAWeek, the CERA consultancy's annual go-to gathering of elite energy and economic figures and thinkers that begins on Monday in Houston.

CFTC official wants more energy market transparency

Energy commodities regulators worldwide will need to move carefully and cooperatively if they expect to make global oil markets more transparent, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Scott D. O'Malia said in Tokyo on Feb. 26.

"We have to acknowledge that we've witnessed a paradigm shift in the global oil market over the past decade," he said in remarks to the International Energy Agency and Institute of Energy Economics Japan's Forum on Global Oil Market Challenges. "The paradigm has shifted in two significant ways…. First, oil is now a financial asset and its price movements are correlated to economic growth. Second, the growth in oil demand is being led by developing nations."

2010 energy prospects promising, U.K. firm says

Oil and gas services company Petrofac said it was confident for 2010 as it expects further investment in oil and gas projects, after it doubled its order backlog and posted net profit above forecasts in 2009.

Pakistan: Power tariff-hike to destroy economy

FAISALABAD - Proposed increase of Rs1.2 per unit in electricity tariff would push the cost of exportable items, making Pakistani textiles costly and inflicting loss of millions of dollars. It will also cause closure of more industries as industrial sector will not be able to absorb this shock; leading to more unemployment & poverty in the country.

Plans to increase consumption of fuel by 31 percent due to electricity crisis

The Venezuelan government plans to increase its fuel consumption by a third in 2010 to fuel thermoelectric plants with which President Hugo Chávez hopes to overcome energy crisis.

Officials expect a total consumption of 104 million barrels in 2010, about 285,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (bpd) of fuel oil, diesel and gas, which will be used to increase thermoelectric capacity by 4,000 megawatts (Mw).

'Energy crisis just artificial'

MANILA, Philippines - Sen. Richard Gordon said the power crisis in Mindanao is artificial and may be part of a sinister plot, and demanded an explanation from the Arroyo administration.

“They should explain why there is a power shortage. From what I have heard – and I have just been to Mindanao – the water level in Lanao lake is normal. They just opened up a power plant in Cebu and they will open up a couple more. I don’t know what they are talking about,” Gordon, Bagumbayan party presidential candidate, told editors and reporters of The STAR yesterday.

“They have a lot of explaining to do.”

East Kalimantan Demand Higher Coal and Gas Supply

TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta: East Kalimantan administration pleaded to the central government for more allocation of gas and coal for to meet regional demand for energy. Governor Awang Faroek said on Tuesday (9/3) the province accounts for 54 percent of total national gas production and produces 50 million metric tonnes of coal every year, and “Its not funny if East Kalimantan should experience energy crisis.”

Green energy revolution expected in Kingdom

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf signalled their intention to kick-start a renewable energy revolution in the region on Monday.

A panel of experts at the ongoing Gulf Environment Forum in Jeddah, chaired by Assistant Minister for Petroleum Affairs Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, said measures were in place to improve the energy mix and finally reduce Middle East dependence on oil.

Sarkozy: ‘Help poor countries go nuclear in energy crisis’

POOR countries should be helped to build their own nuclear power stations to help fight climate change, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said yesterday.

His vision won over international energy officials from India to Brussels, and French executives eager to market their expertise abroad, at a Paris conference. But some experts said Mr Sarkozy’s push was opening the door to risks of deadly technology getting into the wrong hands, and warned consumers to pay attention to the staggering price tag of potential nuclear energy growth – up to £2.6 trillion worldwide by 2050.

"We need nuclear energy" to meet international goals set for slowing global warming, Mr Sarkozy said.

A reactor to make nuclear affordable

One of nuclear's biggest drawbacks, though, is the multi-billion-dollar price tag for all those new reactors. From the Marketplace Sustainability Desk, Sarah Gardner reports now on a way to make nuclear affordable.

Schools' New Math: the Four-Day Week

Four-day weeks have been in place for decades in states like New Mexico, Idaho and Wyoming and initially came about as states were looking to combat growing energy prices. Last week, Pueblo School District 70 in Colorado said it would adopt the schedule next school year for its roughly 8,000 students.

The shift has drawn scrutiny from some education and parents groups who say the shorter week hurts students academically and complicates child-care efforts.

Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach

VENUSTIANO CARRANZA, Mexico — To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was the day their president kicked out foreign oil companies in 1938. Thus, they celebrate March 18 as a civic holiday.

Yet today, that 72-year-old act has put Mexico in a straitjacket, one that threatens both the welfare of the country and the oil supply of the United States.

The national oil company created after the 1938 seizure, Pemex, is entering a period of turmoil. Oil production in its aging fields is sagging so rapidly that Mexico, long one of the world’s top oil-exporting countries, could begin importing oil within the decade.

Mexico is among the three leading foreign suppliers of oil to the United States, along with Canada and Saudi Arabia. Mexican barrels can be replaced, but at a cost. It means greater American dependence on unfriendly countries like Venezuela, unstable countries like Nigeria and Iraq, and on the oil sands of Canada, an environmentally destructive form of oil production.

“As you lose Mexican oil, you lose a critical supply,” said Jeremy M. Martin, director of the energy program at the Institute of the Americas at the University of California, San Diego. “It’s not just about energy security but national security, because our neighbor’s economic and political well-being is largely linked to its capacity to produce and export oil.”

Oil drops below $81 after monthlong rally

Oil prices dropped sharply to below $81 a barrel Tuesday, due to a stronger dollar and profit taking on a monthlong run fueled by growing investor optimism about global economic growth.

Gasoline prices at high for the year

Motorists are well down the road to higher pump prices as warmer weather and the driving season approach.

Average retail gasoline prices, continuing a surge that started last month, have now matched their 2010 high on the way to prices that many analysts believe will top $3 per gallon this spring.

Exxon Lowers Bar, Buys Assets Previously Deemed Unattractive

(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc and Total SA are investing in assets that previously weren’t worth their time or money after oil-rich nations reduced access to reserves and exploration drilling faltered.

Efforts to find new sources of crude and natural gas are failing more often, with San Ramon, California-based Chevron Corp.’s exploration failure rate jumping to 35 percent last year from 10 percent in 2008. Countries such as Venezuela are making it more expensive for companies to develop their resources, if they’re allowed in at all. And previously developed fields are drying up, reducing oil companies’ future supplies, or reserves.

Samsung Heavy Wins Order From Shell for Floating LNG

(Bloomberg) -- Samsung Heavy Industries Co. won an order to build a floating natural-gas facility for Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the first deal between the two under a 15-year supply contract signed last year.

INTERVIEW - Algeria sees global LNG recovery in 2-3 years

ALGIERS (Reuters) - The global slump in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is temporary and demand will recover within the next two to three years, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said in an interview on Monday.

"If we look at the long term, definitely from the environmental point of view and from the point of view of satisfying global demand, there is going to be a big need for natural gas," Khelil told Reuters.

A conventional fuel, an unconventional future

The recent announcement that Korea Gas Corp. would invest $1.1-billion to participate in the development of EnCana's huge gas shale holdings in northeastern British Columbia is another signal that Canada's natural gas industry has entered a profoundly important new stage that, at earlier times, government policies made impossible.

Shell’s Arrow Bid May Spur Coal-Bed Gas Takeovers

(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc and PetroChina Co.’s A$3.3 billion ($3 billion) bid for Arrow Energy Ltd. may spur more takeovers of Australian producers of coal-bed gas, a growing source of supply for Asian energy importers.

Sasol may abandon fuel liquids plant if no govt funding - paper

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Petrochemical group Sasol (SOLJ.J) may abandon its planned 80,000 barrel-a-day South African coal-to-liquid Mafutha plant if the government does not help finance it, the Business Day newspaper reported on Tuesday.

The paper quoted Sasol Chief Executive Officer Pat Davies as saying the world's top maker of motor fuel from coal would let the government determine its funding component for the project, while the company proceeds with its preparatory works currently in feasibility stage.

Mitsui Said to Consider Returning to Singapore Oil Trading

(Bloomberg) -- Mitsui & Co., the Japanese trading group that earns half its profit from energy, may restart oil product trading in Singapore after withdrawing from the city- state in 2007, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The Tokyo-based company pulled out from Asia’s biggest oil- trading center when it shut its Singapore unit Mitsui Oil (Asia) Pte in 2007 after losing $81 million from naphtha transactions hidden by a trader. The cover-up resulted in the imprisonment of three former employees by Singapore courts last year.

Time for ‘bold action’ to reduce oil use in Greater Sudbury

Canada’s economy is highly dependent on oil. Many Canadians believe western Canada’s oil sands deposits will be our salvation. The oil sands, however, are a major atmospheric carbon emitter, which will exacerbate global climate change significantly, while also fouling the region’s water supply.

Should we all be driving hybrids to prepare for the impending high oil prices and volatility? Perhaps, but the report asserts, “There is real danger that the focus on technological advances in cars is making consumers and governments complacent.”

EPA probes whether shale gas drilling contaminates water supplies

The top U.S. environmental regulator said she was "very concerned" about fluids blamed by some for polluting water supplies near sites where drillers use them to extract natural gas from shale deposits. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chief Lisa Jackson said she hopes her agency will launch a study this year into the nature of fluids used in the hydraulic fracturing process of natural gas drilling.

Fracking Fluids Part I: A controversy coming to an energy investment near you

The controversy surrounding fracking fluids is getting louder. Websites and media savvy organizations are getting more press on this issue, using a very simple and powerful pitch – are the chemicals used in fracking fluids in oil and gas wells contaminating our drinking water?

North American investors have not been directly hit by this issue yet, meaning that a company’s stock hasn’t plummeted because they had to stop drilling over these concerns – yet.

Challenging conventional wisdom on renewable energy's limits

In making the case for a rapid conversion away from heavily polluting energy sources like coal and nuclear power to cleaner generation, renewable energy advocates often confront the argument that their scheme is impossible due to the intermittent nature of sun and wind.

But a groundbreaking study out of North Carolina challenges that conventional wisdom: It suggests that backup generation requirements would be modest for a system based largely on solar and wind power, combined with efficiency, hydroelectric power, and other renewable sources like landfill gas.

Tuning the energy innovation engine at MIT

BOSTON--The MIT Energy Conference here on Saturday covered a little bit of everything--"China speed," climate change, financing gaps, government policy, nuclear and natural gas, and, of course, science experiments--as entrepreneurs, business people, and academics tried to get their arms around big-picture energy challenges.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has become a hotbed for clean-energy innovation over the past four years, attracting students and faculty to the field, some of whom have spun out promising companies.

I.B.M. Opens Energy Lab in Beijing

In another sign of China’s emergence as an epicenter of green technology, I.B.M. has opened a lab in Beijing to develop smart grid software for the global market.

IEA: safety, non-proliferation key premises for nuclear development

Safety and non-proliferation are two key premises for global expansion of nuclear power and countries seeking nuclear use must adhere to these principles, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka stressed here Monday.

UAE believes in responsible use of nuclear power

The United Arab Emirates’ interest in developing nuclear energy is motivated by the need to develop additional sources of electricity.

This is to meet future demand projections and to ensure the continued rapid development of the country's economy, UAE Foreign Minister H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan affirmed here today.

Israel 'to unveil plans to build nuclear power plant'

Israel is expected to unveil plans this week to build a nuclear power plant, reports say.

They say an announcement will be made by Israeli Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau at an energy forum in Paris.

Israel is facing a crisis over electricity supplies, but environmental objections have blocked efforts to build a new coal-fired plant.

Don't buy Obama's greenwashing of nuclear power

Last month, inspectors found dangerous chemicals in the groundwater near the Vermont Yankee nuclear reactor. The situation demonstrates that from the mining of uranium ore to the storage of radioactive waste, nuclear reactors remain as dirty, risky, and as costly as they ever were. If President Obama's recent enthusiasm for nuclear reactors has led you to believe otherwise, you've bought in to the administration's greenwashing of nuclear.

Solar Industry Learns Lessons in Spanish Sun

Farmers sold land for solar plants. Boutiques opened. And people from all over the world, seeing business opportunities, moved to the city, which had suffered from 20 percent unemployment and a population exodus.

But as low-quality, poorly designed solar plants sprang up on Spain’s plateaus, Spanish officials came to realize that they would have to subsidize many of them indefinitely, and that the industry they had created might never produce efficient green energy on its own.

Lending Scheme to Bring Solar to Cambodia’s Poor

With access to solar-powered energy products for Cambodia’s rural poor extremely limited, the solar energy company Kamworks and the Cambodia Mutual Savings and Credit Network are partnering to provide low-interest loans to customers hoping to outfit their homes with solar panels, while Kamworks will provide and install the equipment.

Ethanol Making Comeback as Valero Sees Profit Where Gates Lost

(Bloomberg) -- Ethanol, the commodity that cost Bill Gates more than $44 million the last time prices collapsed, is poised to rally as much as 20 percent as the fastest drop since 2008 spurs demand.

Falling corn prices and record ethanol supplies have driven the price down 17 percent in three months to $1.634 a gallon, its worst run since 2008’s fourth quarter. It will average $1.96 a gallon at the peak of the U.S. summer driving season as refiners from Valero Energy Corp. to Sunoco Inc. mix more into gasoline made from increasingly pricey oil, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

European Activists Sue Over Biofuels Studies

Environmental lawyers and activists on Monday sued the European Commission for failing to release studies investigating the impact of biofuels on the environment.

Whetting Singapore's thirst for rice

"To produce one bowl of rice it takes about 500 liters of water," said Dr. Bouman.

"For a city like Singapore, the question is whether the 688 billion liters of water needed to produce the country's rice will remain available."

Worldwide, water for agriculture is becoming increasingly scarce as groundwater reserves drop, water quality declines because of pollution, irrigation systems malfunction, and competition from urban and industrial users increases.

Climate change will also reduce water availability in large parts of the world. And, by 2025, 15-20 million hectares of irrigated rice will suffer some degree of water scarcity.

Cool it on efforts against new rules, EPA chief asks

WASHINGTON — The head of the Environmental Protection Agency on Monday pushed back against lawmakers' attempts to halt the EPA's regulation of greenhouse gases from power plants, refiners and other industrial facilities.

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson said the agency's proposed new rules, which would take effect next year, could help ignite new demand for clean energy technology.

Instead of trying to block new rules, lawmakers should spend their energy focusing on “new legislation to do something” about climate change, Jackson told reporters after a speech at the National Press Club.

Asking “what would nature do?” leads to a way to break down a greenhouse gas

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – A recent discovery in understanding how to chemically break down the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into a useful form opens the doors for scientists to wonder what organism is out there – or could be created – to accomplish the task.

University of Michigan biological chemist Steve Ragsdale, along with research assistant Elizabeth Pierce and scientists led by Fraser Armstrong from the University of Oxford in the U.K., have figured out a way to efficiently turn carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide using visible light, like sunlight.

California to amend 'cool cars' rule

The state, which gave initial approval of the new rules in June, aims to sharply reduce solar energy in vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The California Air Resources Board is working to finalize the regulations in the coming weeks. The final rules must be in place by May 7.

But the California Police Chiefs Association, California State Sheriffs Association, Crime Victims United of California and other groups warn that the new standards, requiring window glazing to keep car interiors cool, could degrade signals from cell phones, and from ankle monitoring bracelets worn by felons.

Fidel Castro warns of dangers threatening humanity

Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro warned of many dangers currently threatening the planet and the humanity such as mass destructive weapons and climate change.

"For the first time, the human species, in a globalized world full of contradictions, have created the ability to destroy themselves," Castro said in an article released on Monday.

How does America end up with such terrible national security strategies?

Last month I wrote a blog post on the appallingly, monumentally bad Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) of 2010 — the document the US Defence Department is required to produce as a basis for developing the military force structure and strategic requirements for the next four years. This document, meant to analyse the threats to the United States, failed to mention radical Islam as a threat in its over 100 pages. It also passed over the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons with only a one-sentence mention. Yet the top officials of the Defence Department did not fail to notice the REAL threat facing the United States. The QDR devoted several pages to the serious threat inherent in… climate change.

Monbiot: The trouble with trusting complex science

There is no simple way to battle public hostility to climate research. As the psychologists show, facts barely sway us anyway.

Wild relatives of crops seen aiding climate fight

(Reuters) - Farm experts plan to track down wild relatives of crops such as rice or wheat with traits that make them able to resist global warming in a project costing perhaps $50 million, a leading expert said on Tuesday.

"The wild relatives of cultivated crops ... are largely uncollected or conserved in gene banks," said Cary Fowler, head of the Rome-based Global Crop Diversity Trust which co-manages a "doomsday" seed vault on an Arctic island north of Norway.

Move to train truckers to be greener

The UK government has launched a new proposal to encourage more lorry drivers to take eco-driver training in a move to save up to 3m tonnes of carbon emissions.

Over five years, a saving of around £300m in fuel costs could be achieved, according to transport minister Paul Clark.

India backs Copenhagen climate deal: minister

NEW DELHI (AFP) – India has decided to formally back a climate change accord struck in Copenhagen last year that includes non-binding limits on global warming, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said Tuesday.

Climate forest deal in sight: Indonesia

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Wealthy and developing nations should be able to seal an agreement this year on deforestation, unlocking a key part of the next treaty on global warming, Indonesian negotiators said Monday.

Should Scientists Fight Heat or Stick to Data?

You want to know why Al Gore and his movie have proven to be such an abject failure? (And yes, failure is the right word — polling shows no net increase in public concern about global warming in the years following the movie — for two decades its been roughly a third of the public who are seriously worried about global warming.) It’s for this very reason. A very dull and dispassionate voice was chosen to deliver a supposedly dire and passionate message. It was one of the worst cases of bad casting in history. Gore is ultimately “a scientist” when it comes to communication instincts. You can see it played out in his movie and two books as he’s slowly come to the realization that you need something more than information to reach the masses. Duh.

Post Carbon

Contrary to popular belief, young people are not more politically engaged on the issue of climate change than older Americans, according to a new climate poll conducted by researchers at American, Yale and George Mason universities.

The researchers found "adults under the age of 35 are significantly less likely than their elders to say that they had thought about global warming before today, with nearly a quarter (22 percent) of under-35s saying they had never thought about the issue previously. Only 38 percent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 say that they had previously thought about global warming either 'a lot' (10 percent) or 'some' (28 percent), compared to 51 percent of those 35-59 and 44 percent of those 60 and older.

When the Water Rises

It’s easy to imagine an apocalyptically soggy future for New York—high waves soaking the hem of Lady Liberty’s robes, flash floods roaring through subway tunnels, kayakers paddling down Wall Street—and just as easy to dismiss it all as another end-of-days Hollywood fantasy. Global warming may be powerful and real, but so is denial, and the urge to postpone thinking about that particular item on the world’s to-do list is almost irresistible. Coastal cities, however, don’t have that luxury. For centuries, New York has been steadily expanding into its harbor; when the steroidal storms of the not-too-distant future start pummeling our shores, the waters will push back.

So Barry Bergdoll, the head of the Museum of Modern Art’s architecture and design department, divvied New York Harbor among five teams of designers and challenged them to figure out how a low-lying metropolis might deal with rising sea levels and violent storm surges. Their answers will appear (starting March 24) in the MoMA exhibit “Rising Currents: Projects for New York’s Waterfront,” and they vary from spongy streets to reefs made of glass or oysters to apartment buildings dangling above the brine.

Developed countries outsource emissions: study

Developed countries are "outsourcing" more than a third of their carbon emissions associated with products and services to other countries, researchers say.

A study of trade data found that some countries in Western Europe have more than half of their total carbon dioxide emissions occurring elsewhere, especially in developing countries such as China.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/more-on-sun-

Four new papers discuss the relatiosnhip between solar activity and climate: one by Judith Lean (2010) in WIREs Climate Change, a GRL paper by Calogovic et al. (2010), Kulmala et al. (2010), and an on-line preprint by Feulner and Rahmstorf (2010). They all look at different aspects of how changes in solar activity may influence our climate.

The paper by Judith Lean (2010) has the character of a review article, summarizing past studies on the relationship between solar forcing and climate. The main message from her article is that the solar forcing probably plays a modest role for the global warming over the last 100 years (10% or less). It’s a nice overview, but I miss treatment of uncertainties.

Her analysis is based on the HadCRUT3 data, and I wonder if she would get similar results if she chose the GISTEMP or NCDC instead. The choice may in particular be relevant for the discussion of the temperatures after 1998.

Personally, I regard the data on solar activity before 1900 as quite uncertain too. The reason is that there are strange things happening to the solar cycle length in the shift from the 19th to the 20th century. Hence, any analysis based on the past centuries is uncertain because of suspect data quality in the early part of the record. Lean mentions that proxy-based records are uncertain, however.

Another source of uncertainty stems from the analysis itself – a regression analysis with chaotic data can easily yield misleading results. Gavin and I showed in a recent paper that multiple regression can produce strange results when applied to the global mean temperature and a number of forcings.

In other words, I think the reader may get the wrong impression from Lean (2010) that the link between solar activity and climate is better established than the data and methods suggest. Especially when she discusses forecasts for the near future (eg. for year 2014) – I fear that such a discussion can be misinterpreted and misused. However, that’s my view, and it does not necessarily mean that her paper is incorrect – quite the opposite, I think her main conclusions are sound (Her estimate of the solar contribution to the global warming over past century – 10% or less – is in good agreement with the figure Gavin and I got in our analysis).

The positive side is that the paper is probably clearer and more accessible without all these caveats. I also think she makes an interesting point when she discusses ‘fundamental puzzles’ associated with claims of strong solar role in terms of the past warming. She puts this into the context of climate sensitivity, arguing that it would imply that Earth’s climate be insensitive to well-measured increases in GHG concentrations and simultaneously excessively sensitive to poorly known solar brightness changes. Furthermore, Lean argues that it would also require that the Sun’s brightness increased more in the past century than at any time in the past millennium – a situation not readily supported by observations.

The paper of Calogovic et al. (2010) is a follow-up of a recent paper by Svensmark et al. (2009), looking into the claim that the cloud water content drops after a Forbush event. Their work involved estimating cosmic ray fluxes for the whole planet, and comparing it to local cloud information derived from satellites. They concluded that the Forbush events had no detectable effect on the clouds.

Moreover, they also argued that the analysis of Svensmark et al. (2009) gave unreliable results since it included a Forbush event on January 20, 2005 which was accompanied by a strong solar proton event. However, they did not explain explicitly why such proton events would disturb the measurements, but referred to another study by Laken et al. (2009) in Geophysical Research Letter. Laken et. al. only discusses the proton events briefly, and refers to a study by Fluckiger et al. (2005), who state that “The cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) on January 20, 2005 is ranked among the largest in years, with neutron monitor count rates increased by factors of more than 50″.

But there is no reference to proton events in Fluckiger et al. (2005), so I’m not convinced that proton events will invalidate the analysis of Svensmark et al. (2009). Perhaps I’m missing something? Anyway, this is only a minor detail, and the rest of the analysis of Calogovic et al. (2010) seems more convincing. Their conclusion is supported by Kulmala et al. (2010): “galactic cosmic rays appear to play a minor role for atmospheric aerosol formation events, and so for the connected aerosol-climate effects as well”. Kulmala’s group in Finland boasts many world-renowned aerosol physicists.

The study by Kulmala et al. (2010) was based on near-ground measurements of aerosols, magnetic field, cosmic rays, sunlight intensity (solar radiation), and ionization over a 13-year long period (~1 solar cycle). They also used airborne Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer, LIDAR and Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe measurements. They failed to detect any correlation between cosmic ray ionization intensity and atmospheric aerosol formation.

Feulner and Rahmstorf address a speculation stated by Lean: the possibility of solar forcing countering anthropogenic global warming. Their paper examines the effect a solar grand minimum (low solar activity similar to that inferred for the Maunder Minimum) would have on the global mean temperature by 2100. By accounting for a corresponding reduction in forcing for the future in a climate model study, they conclude that the effect is negligible (less than 0.3K compared to 3.7 – 4.5K if the SRES A1b or A2 emission scenarios were assumed).

So what can we learn from these articles? What we see is how science often works – increases in knowledge by increments and independent studies re-affirming previous findings, namely that changes in the sun play a minor role in climate change on decadal to centennial scales. After all, 2009 was the second-warmest year on record, and by far the warmest in the southern hemisphere, despite the record solar minimum. The solar signal for the past 25 years is not just small but negative (i.e. cooling), but this has not noticeably slowed down global warming. But there are also many unknowns remaining, and the largest uncertainties concern clouds, cloud physics, and their impact on climate. In this sense, I find it ironic that some people still rely on the cosmic rays argument as their strongest argument against AGW – it does involve poorly known clouds physics!

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/96Jv-R7ZGig/3102-nations-

Warren County Kentucky is building the first net-zero energy school in the country.  Richardsville Elementary School will operate free of the grid by generating its own renewable energy, incorporating smart architectural features and a major emphasis on efficiency.

The list of features for this school is mind-boggling.  The school will have thin-film PV roof arrays, solar water heating, geothermal HVAC, insulated concrete form walls, a rainwater collection system and energy-efficient lighting.  The building is designed to take full advantage of natural light and wind for cooling. The plot of land includes a reclaimed brownfield, preserved woodland, a protected stream and bioswales.

Read more...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/WsAk_IXySFY/3101-report-s

A new report from technology research corporation iSuppli warns that we're facing a global LED shortage in 2010.  Hooray!

Why am I cheering?  Because the reason for this shortage is a huge surge in demand for the energy-efficient lighting in the electronics industry.  Yes, it's bad that the supply is low, but it's great news that the use of more efficient lighting is becoming more mainstream.

The report says that demand for LEDs is expected to rise by double-digit percentages for at least the next three years.  In 2009, 63 billion units were consumed out of the 75 billion unit capacity worldwide.  The worst-case scenario is a rise in prices for mid-range and high-end computers and HDTVs because of their larger displays.

The solution is simple enough though:  increase production.  The two largest suppliers have gotten the hint -- Aixtron and Veeco Instruments are doubling their production by the end of this year.

via PC Mag

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/n7QmfbvmiaY/6267

After showing you pictures of offshore wind turbine foundations in this story, I am pleased to be able to now post pictures of the above-the-water parts, before their installation at sea:

Left: nacelles with the hubs being installed
Right: blades (45m long) stacked

Part of the Wind power series. More below:

If you remember, there were ovality issues with one foundation last time round - well, that was solved and that foundation has now been corrected and installed at sea. The foundation site has just one big item remaining:

the transition piece for the offshore high voltage transformer station

This transition piece is heavier than the others, and required a re-fit of the jackup barge to be installed. That refit was being done when we visited:

Left: two of the legs that go down in water to lift the platform above the water when it needs to work
Right: the jackup is in the "raised" position in order for the re-fit work to be done in perfectly stable conditions, even in the port

After installing the foundation for the transformer, the vessel will be refitted a second time to begin in a few weeks' time the installation of the towers and turbines, which are arriving at a nearby site:

the nacelles (Vestas V90 - 3MW)






the hubs






the blades



the first part of the tower

The installation method chosen for this project is to install the turbines with the hub (but not the blades) on top of the towers (which are brought in two parts and are assembled on site) onshore, and transport the full unit to the site at sea in one piece, in a vertical position. Thus, other than the installation of that unit on top of the foundations, the only work offshore will be the installation of the blades, one by one, on the hub.

On the port site, various bits of assembly are happening now: the towers are being erected:

The fully erected towers stand at above 100 meters

The hubs are being attached to the nacelles:

The hubs are first positioned alongside the nacelles




after having being raised into position (something I did not witness), the hubs are bolted to the nacelle




a complete nacelle + hub set in front, with one to be installed behind it

I hope to be able to post more installments in the future - but joining the installation work at sea is usually more difficult as the safety requirements are absolutely stringent and the boats can be mobilised for more than a few days... to be continued.