http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/JmTcHh6J7us/6174

Obama 2011 budget request: Energy Department

The Energy Department would get the ability to guarantee an additional $36 billion in loans for the construction of new nuclear plants under President Obama's budget request, twice as much as the previous loan guarantee program. The loan guarantees would sharply reduce the financing cost of capital-intensive nuclear plants, and proponents hope it would help jump start an additional half-dozen nuclear power plants.

The budget would eliminate funding, however, for the long-discussed Yucca Mountain, Nev., repository for nuclear waste. The budget proposal says that Yucca "is not a workable option."

O&G Execs Tout Increase in Upstream Employment

Half of U.S. oil and gas senior executives expect to increase employment this year and two-thirds believe that the recession burdening 2009 will end this year, according to Grant Thornton LLP's eighth annual Survey of Upstream U.S. Energy Companies.

Reed Wood, Grant Thornton LLP’s partner-in-charge of the firm's energy practice, detected optimism from the respondents of the 2010 survey. "It was convincingly evident in their outlooks for prices, capital expenditures and employment."

Fuel Exports From India Fall as Reliance Raises Domestic Sales

(Bloomberg) -- Fuel exports from India’s west coast, the home of two Reliance Industries Ltd. refineries, fell in January as the company increased domestic sales.

Shipments of at least 690,000 metric tons, or about 5.87 million barrels, of oil products left west India for places such as Japan, the U.K., and South Korea, down from 1.39 million the previous month and 1.28 million a year earlier, data collected by Clarkson Research Services Ltd. showed.

Kjell Aleklett: The OPEC bulletin and focus on Angola

At the moment it seems like everyone wants a piece of Angola. The queue of prominent visitors is long with the USA’s Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at its head. Where it smells of oil one can also find China and they mention that China is thought to have contributed $5 billion in loans to develop Angola’s infrastructure. The investment is necessary after 25 years of civil war. The repayment will, presumably, be made in the form of oil.

China to Raise Resource Acquisitions as Car, Home Sales Jump

(Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s largest metal consumer, will add to last year’s record $32 billion spending on resource acquisitions as demand for iron ore, copper and oil soars with the fastest economic growth since 2007.

Chinese companies will hunt for iron ore, coal, oil, copper and gold assets, said Jing Ulrich, the chairwoman of China equities and commodities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong.

Chinese oil giant leads pack in bid to build Saudi fuel hub

China's Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corp has submitted the lowest bid to build a new fuel distribution plant for Saudi Aramco, industry sources said.

Saudi to up March crude prices to Asia - poll

SINGAPORE - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to raise prices of all its crudes heading to Asia for March on healthy fuel oil cracks and improving refining margins, after cuts last month, traders said on Monday.

In a poll of five refiners and traders, all expected the official selling prices (OSPs) to rise across the board.

Russia oil output to hit 500 mln T in 2010 - Sechin

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil production will rise to 500 million tonnes this year and zero export duties for East Siberian fields will remain in place, the country's foremost energy official said on Monday.

State Won Big in Sakhalin Buy

Immediately after Gazprom bought out international companies' stakes in Sakhalin-2, the state received a privileged share in Sakhalin Energy, which paid a $1.35 billion dividend.

"I want to thank our partners for their flexibility," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said when Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi agreed to cede control over Sakhalin Energy, the operator of the Sakhalin-2 natural gas deposit, to Gazprom for $7.45 billion.

Exxon Mobil profits fall 23% in fourth quarter

US oil giant Exxon Mobil has reported a 23% drop in profits, but the result was better than many analysts had expected.

Chavez announced a billion dollar boost to Venezuela's power grid

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez on Sunday announced in its Sunday TV program a special one billion dollar fund to strengthen Venezuela's power grid and prevent another energy crisis like the one the country is now suffering.

Countering energy crisis with alternative resources

As Pakistan grapples with acute energy shortage due to fast depleting conventional resources combined with a struggling economy, there is an urgent need for adopting energy conservation measures.

Experts believe that by harnessing the alternative methods for energy generation, Pakistan can overcome the present crisis to a great extent. A number of western countries have successfully developed renewable energy sources based on wind, sun, biomass, geothermal, ocean tides and bio fuels to minimize dependence on fossil fuels.

Are We Yeast in a Wine Vat? Reflections on Sustainability

From Bill O’Reilly to Bill Moyers there is consensus that a return to growth is the remedy for what they see as an economic recession. Their political divisions arise over how to rekindle demand and consumption, with the right favoring a market led recovery and the left typically advocating massive government stimulus spending.

Were I to meet O’Reilly or Moyers I would ask, “Since we live on a finite planet, with finite resources, why is economic growth the solution and not the source of our dilemmas?” The failure of media, political, educational, scientific, and cultural leaders to consider this question illustrates what Joseph Campbell calls the power of myth. Questioning growth is at odds with our faith in the American Dream, whose main promise is that future generations are entitled to a higher material standard of living than their parents enjoyed.

Kunstler: The Jive Economy

Memo to nation: we're not really growing, we're shrinking. Is this necessarily a bad thing? I dunno. Unlike, say, the stockholders of Toll Brothers I'm not so sure that "housing starts" represents my idea of a healthy economy -- since it really means we're destroying every cornfield and cow pasture left outside our cities, which will play havoc with our national life when the reality of our Wile E. Coyote agribusiness fiasco starts to hit home and we discover what cornfields and cow pastures were really all about in the first place.

'Climate emails hacked by spies'

A highly sophisticated hacking operation that led to the leaking of hundreds of emails from the Climatic Research Unit in East Anglia was probably carried out by a foreign intelligence agency, according to the Government's former chief scientist. Sir David King, who was Tony Blair's chief scientific adviser for seven years until 2007, said that the hacking and selective leaking of the unit's emails, going back 13 years, bore all the hallmarks of a co-ordinated intelligence operation – especially given their release just before the Copenhagen climate conference in December.

Japan JGC in deal to cut Saudi refinery emissions

KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - State oil firm Saudi Aramco and Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday they signed a deal with a unit of Japan's JGC to improve the environmental performance of their joint Sasref refinery.

JGC Gulf International will carry out the engineering, procurement and construction work to add two units to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions at the Sasref refinery in Jubail on Saudi Arabia's Gulf coast, a statement said.

Environmental groups losing interest in lobbying Prentice

Canada's leading environmentalists say they're losing interest in lobbying federal Environment Minister Jim Prentice because the government has locked itself into an environmental policy "bunker" and is not giving their ideas serious consideration.

Meanwhile, according to the Registry of Lobbyists, representatives for big oil companies frequently lobby the minister, and appear to be a major source of policy advice on energy and climate issues.

A Review of ‘Climate Cover-up’ by James Hoggan

This very timely book is essential reading for those bewildered by the recent backlash against climate science. It takes things back to basics, and rather than being an exploration of the climate science itself, it seeks to equip the reader with the tools to be able to distinguish between the sources of climate-related information. If you want to board an aeroplane, but were told by a large group of aeronautical engineers that the plane was 90% certain to crash upon take-off, would you listen to them, or to a small group, comprising a PR consultant, a botanist and a plumber, who presented as evidence an article from Readers Digest magazine? The debate as to whether climate change is happening or not, and the need felt by media organisations to always present ‘both sides’, was over several years ago, yet since just before Copenhagen, contrarianism is back, and is back bigtime. So who are these people? Are they right? And how can we tell the difference?

Crack Spreads Widen as Refineries Close in the U.S.

(Bloomberg) -- As refineries from New Jersey to New Mexico close at the fastest pace in three decades, traders in Singapore are profiting from a new plant on India’s west coast and a ship heading for Florida filled with jet fuel from Taiwan.

The so-called refinery crack spread in Singapore, representing the value of fuels minus the cost of crude oil, may climb 50 percent to as much as $4.50 a barrel this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of five analysts. U.S. refinery margins will drop 35 percent by December, futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange show.

That means higher profits for oil companies and traders in Asia, where consumption is growing 13 times faster than in Europe and the U.S. That’s also why Morgan Stanley can buy jet fuel in Taiwan and ship it 11,500 miles to Port Everglades, Florida, and still make money.

Oil drops in Asia as stock markets extend slide

BANGKOK – Oil prices extended losses Monday in Asia as stock markets fell and hopes faded for a sudden revival in energy demand.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 23 cents at $72.66 a barrel by early afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract dropped 75 cents on Friday to settle at $72.89.

South Korea Crude Oil Imports Decline for Third Month

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest buyer of crude oil, imported less of the fuel by volume for a third month as refiners maintained low crude run rates.

Imports dropped 20 percent to 74.5 million barrels in January from 93.3 million barrels a year earlier, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in an e-mailed statement today. Imports gained 5.5 percent from December.

Cosmo to cut refining capacity as demand wilts

TOKYO (Reuters) - Cosmo Oil Co Ltd will cut refining capacity by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Tuesday and consider further reductions at mid-year, becoming the latest Japanese refiner taking action on declining domestic demand.

Taiwan LNG Imports Drop for First Time on Recession

(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan, Asia’s third-biggest importer of liquefied natural gas, reduced purchases of the fuel for the first time last year because of the global recession.

Imports of LNG, used as a fuel in power stations, fell 2.5 percent to 19.4 million kiloliters, or 8.78 million metric tons, from 19.9 million kiloliters in 2008, e-mailed data from Taiwan’s Bureau of Energy showed today.

Russia Suffered Record Economic Contraction in 2009

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s economy shrank the most on record in 2009 after the price of oil slumped 77 percent from peak to trough and left businesses to start the year trying to adjust to smaller profits as banks cut off credit.

Peak Oil Debate Piques Interest at Davos

The BP-Shell duo have a long road to go to convince all markets of their point of view. It is said that the oil majors are creating speculative pressure on the commodity markets with the help of commodity speculators and banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley . Europe’s falling oil output at North Sea has been the talk of the energy circles during the last few years, even as intense speculative activity around Brent Oil at the London Exchange has been driving oil prices upwards.

Fire breaks out at Kuwait oil gathering centre

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) – Firemen were on Monday trying to douse a blaze that broke out at an oil gathering centre, the state-run Kuwait Oil Company said, adding that production has not been affected.

Falkland Plans to Drill Toroa Well in April, CEO Says

(Bloomberg) -- Falkland Oil & Gas Ltd., a U.K.-based explorer in the south Atlantic, plans to start drilling a well southeast of the Falkland Islands in April.

Four shot dead at PNG LNG site

ExxonMobil has suspended work near a liquefied natural gas (LNG) site in Papua New Guinea after four local villagers were killed in a tribal dispute.

The clash between two rival coastal villages near the capital Port Moresby occurred in an area where ExxonMobil is to build a plant to liquefy, store and load gas for shipment overseas.

Shell Shuts Nigerian Oil Flow Stations After Sabotage

(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Nigerian unit halted some flow stations in the country’s southern oil region after sabotage caused a pipeline leak.

“We have shut in some flow stations which produce into the line and the leak has stopped,” Precious Okolobo, Shell’s spokesman in Nigeria, said today in an e-mailed statement. “Repair work will commence as soon as possible.”

Nigeria militants deny Shell pipeline attack

LAGOS, Nigeria — The main militant group in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta says they were not involved in the rupture of an important Royal Dutch Shell PLC pipeline.

Incremental Steps in Iraq To Let Kurdistan Oil Flow

ERBIL, Iraq — The semiautonomous region of Kurdistan is the one place in battered Iraq that promised economic boom times, but some of the foreign oil companies that rushed in over the past few years are becoming increasingly restless.

Their multibillion-dollar deals are still mired in a bitter political dispute between the Kurdish region and the central government in Baghdad.

They may have a stake in what is shaping up to be one of the greatest oil bonanzas of modern times, but the prospect of earning a profit, let alone recovering their costs, remains highly uncertain.

Voser’s Shell Overhaul May Signal Output Revival in BP Fight

(Bloomberg) -- Peter Voser is using lessons from his two-year stint rescuing Swiss engineering company ABB Ltd. from near bankruptcy to turn around Royal Dutch Shell Plc by selling assets, cutting thousands of jobs and speeding up decisions.

Not only has Shell suffered six years of falling output, it’s been overtaken as Europe’s biggest energy producer in terms of market value by BP Plc for the first time since 2006.

Oilpatch expected to post solid Q4 earnings

"Oil producers should have a pretty solid quarter," said Chris Feltin, an analyst at Macquarie Group in Calgary. Crude prices, he noted, climbed "materially" in the fourth quarter over the third, as well as in the same period last year.

"Those exposed to natural gas are likely to show weaker results because natural gas prices were still relatively weak," he said.

Gazprom Profit Rises on Weaker Ruble, Tax Decline

(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom’s profit climbed a more- than-expected 33 percent in the third quarter after the Russian gas export monopoly paid less tax and the ruble weakened against the dollar.

Net income rose to 174.6 billion rubles ($5.75 billion) from 131.7 billion rubles a year earlier, the Moscow-based company said on its Web site. That beat the median estimate of 156 billion rubles in a Bloomberg survey of 12 analysts.

Russia, Venezuela step up oil cooperation

High-ranking officials from Russia and Venezuela on Sunday discussed oil cooperation and export of Russian cars to the Latin American country, Russian news agency reported.

Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin and Venezuelan Oil and Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez held talks in Moscow over the operation of the Russian National Oil Consortium in Venezuela, the reports said.

Do you use more energy than your neighbors?

More than 1 million U.S. households now receive reports on how their energy consumption compares with their neighbors as utilities encourage conservation, some with smiley faces for those doing well.

The reports — deployed by 25 utilities, including six of the 10 biggest — have resulted in households cutting energy use an average of 2% to 3%, says Alex Laskey, co-founder of Opower, which provides the reports.

Getting connected: Europe's green energy 'supergrid'

It is a criticism frequently leveled at those promoting wind or solar power as an alternative to fossil fuels: what happens when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine?

Well, now there is a smart answer, at least in Europe -- we'll simply and instantly switch to another source of clean, green power.

Plans for a massive electricity grid dedicated to uniting the varied sources of renewable energy available in northern Europe have taken a step forward in January as nine countries formally agreed to work together on the project.

Speed is only part of rail project scope

In all, President Barack Obama funneled $8 billion in stimulus funds to high-speed rail projects across the country. Missouri is getting money, too — $31 million — but that won't let trains run faster than 79 mph between St. Louis and Kansas City. Instead, it will reduce delays with such improvements as a parallel bridge over the Osage River, crossed now by a single track.

"This whole package is being sold as high-speed," said Matt Van Hattem, senior editor for Trains magazine. "But in fact, $5 billion of the $8 billion is being used to upgrade existing systems."

The great uranium stampede

Bakouma is not an isolated case.

It’s just one example of a silent landgrab unfolding around the globe. After decades as a forgotten commodity, uranium, the radioactive element used as the primary fuel for nuclear power, is hot property again. Agents for companies, many of them government-controlled, are fanning out across the globe to gain access to the powdery, radioactive ore.

The scramble has been set off by the comeback of nuclear power. In the past couple of years countries that for decades had shunned it as an expensive, pariah technology have embraced it anew. Britain is leading the charge. The government envisages a new generation of reactors to replace the rickety old stations that will be retired in the coming years. The renaissance has taken hold elsewhere, from America to the Middle East and China.

Singapore to Consider Nuclear Power, Fewer Foreigners

(Bloomberg) -- Singapore should consider using nuclear power and depend less on foreign workers in its efforts to transform the economy in the next decade, a government- appointed panel said.

World's most powerful laser to trigger fusion reaction this year

A pivotal step in the march towards fusion power, the ''holy grail'' of sustainable clean energy, could be taken this year.

Brazil Cosan, Shell in $12 billion ethanol merger deal

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's Cosan, the world's largest ethanol and sugar processor, said on Monday it signed an agreement to merge its ethanol and fuels distribution business in the country with Royal Dutch Shell in a deal valued as much as $12 billion.

Fuel the future

Lithium is touted as the ‘new oil’ but the debate rages if it’s a long-term solution or short-term burst of optimism.

Canada: Residents fear prospect race for lithium

The rush to find lithium in West Quebec has some residents concerned that prospectors will cut trees and tunnel or drill on their land to meet the demand for the volatile metal used in rechargeable electric car batteries.

"Energy-Louisiana Style" at the 2010 Washington Mardi Gras

The theme of the 62ND annual Washington Mardi Gras Ball is "Energy-Louisiana Style." That's why Louisiana's business leaders in attendance were looking forward to hearing from the luncheon's keynote speaker Matthew Simmons, chairman emeritus of Simmons and Company, an investment banking firm for the nation's energy industry. But when a technical snafu prevented Simmons from presenting his original Power Point presentation detailing the history and future of Louisiana's energy industry, many in the audience, including executives of the nation's leading oil and gas corporations, were taken aback when Simmons decided to call up his favorite "go-to" topic, wind energy in the state of Maine, and why he feels that windmills may one day replace oil derricks and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as the supplier of our nation's energy needs.

Cuba: creative, complex and contradictory

The Cuban travel experience is otherworldly. It’s like falling into a Caribbean Stargate, constructed from rusting Russian tank parts, vacuum tubes and Marxist boilerplate, and stumbling out into a Terry Gilliam fever dream.

On the surface, Cuba would seem to have little to offer the rest of the world, other than a lesson in stubbornness and staying power – especially considering this nation of 11 million people is only 140 kilometres from its erstwhile enemy, the US. But with today’s contentious issues of diminishing resources, food security and healthcare, Cuba may have a hard-won lesson for westerners about getting by in hard times.

Town joins Transition network

A CORNISH town has become the latest to join the Transition network of communities encouraging sustainable development.

Saltash, in South East Cornwall, is the latest addition to the network of more than 160 communities across England.

How Can We Talk About Transformational Change Without Losing Hope?

Every time we're subjected to more dramatic predictions of global warming without being given solutions, a seed of helplessness is planted in our souls.

Poisoned Shipments: Are Strange, Illicit Sinkings Making the Mediterranean Toxic?

In October 2009 the government of Italy announced that a wreck discovered off the southwestern tip of the country is the Catania, a passenger vessel sunk during World War I—and not the Cunski, a cargo ship loaded with radioactive waste, as alleged by district authorities from nearby Calabria. Few locals are reassured, says Michael Leonardi of the University of Calabria. He and others maintain that the putative Cunski is still out there and is just one of numerous ships full of poisonous garbage that a crime syndicate has scuttled in the Mediterranean Sea. Such a startling allegation, if true, would not only damage the tourism and fishing industries along this idyllic coast but also compromise the health of Mediterranean residents.

Emissions of Potent Greenhouse Gas Increase Despite Reduction Efforts

Despite a decade of efforts worldwide to curb its release into the atmosphere, NOAA and university scientists have measured increased emissions of a greenhouse gas that is thousands of times more efficient at trapping heat than carbon dioxide and persists in the atmosphere for nearly 300 years.

The substance HFC-23, or trifluoromethane, is a byproduct of chlorodifluoromethane, or HCFC-22, a refrigerant in air conditioners and refrigerators and a starting material for producing heat and chemical-resistant products, cables and coatings.

IMF plans 100 billion fund to help poor mitigate climate impact

The International Monetary Fund is planning a 100 billion dollar fund to help countries mitigate the effects of climate change, the agency's head said.

"The new growth model will be low carbon," Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, told political and business leaders meeting at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos this weekend.

Germany Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Fall 22%; Kyoto Target Achieved

(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s greenhouse-gas emissions fell 22 percent between 1990 and 2008, the environment ministry said today.

China Reaffirms Greenhouse-Gas Goals to UN, Yu Qingtai Says

(Bloomberg) -- China told the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change it supports the Copenhagen Accord reached in December and reaffirmed its goal to cut carbon-dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 40 percent to 45 percent from 2005 through 2020.

Rudd Takes Up Fight With ‘Mad Monk’ on Australian Climate Bill

(Bloomberg) -- Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd this week will make a third attempt to introduce a carbon trading bill, confronted by a new opposition leader who views the climate-change debate as his ticket to power.

Brown Says UN Climate Negotiations Were ‘Flawed,’ Need Reform

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the climate negotiations that failed to produce a binding treaty to rein in greenhouse gases were flawed, putting pressure on the United Nations to change the way the talks are structured.

Ecologists Outline Necessary Actions for Mitigating to a Changing Climate

Global warming may impair the ability of ecosystems to perform vital services -- such as providing food, clean water and carbon sequestration -- says the nation's largest organization of ecological scientists. In a statement released Jan. 26, the Ecological Society of America (ESA) outlines strategies that focus on restoring and maintaining natural ecosystem functions to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

"Decision-makers cannot overlook the critical services ecosystems provide," says ESA President Mary Power. "If we are going to reduce the possibility of irreversible damage to the environment under climate change, we need to take swift but measured action to protect and manage our ecosystems."

GFDL Study Suggests Doubling of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes this Century

A team of scientists from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) used a unique downscaling approach to model hurricane activity through the end of the 21st century, and their results produce nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/3mnxUHRlhj0/6166

This is a guest post by Suraj Kumar, who posts under the name sunson. He is a software engineer living in Bangalore, India. This is a link to his blog.

Picture this: A remote Indian village in the Ganges delta a few hundred years ago. The farmer starts his day by letting his flock of ducks into his irrigated fields. The water from the river brings with it, besides nutrients and alluvium, some unwanted (for the crops) pests too. But that is not a problem--the ducks will keep the pests in control. Not only that, they will turn those pests into manure and drop it right inside the pool of collected water to be anaerobically decomposed under the water.

Maybe the farmer doesn't realize it and thinks the Sun god and Nature goddesses are helping him. But that's just a coincidence that's helping him continue his ways. They worship the arrival of the stork--which, by the way, even the Japanese and Chinese do. Coincidence? (I'm willing to bet Mexicans do that too!) There are still pockets in India where people's lifestyles are frozen in time and haven't changed much.

The thorns that plants developed are the results of selection pressure. Blind nature can out-do our smartness in several unimaginable ways. Photo from this blog.

The saying goes Unity in Diversity, and it's true for stable ecosystems. Agriculture as it has been practiced in India over centuries has relied and depended on nature's forces. Whether we evolved our practices, designed the system by hand, or got it by sheer luck overnight... every Indian alive today is a proof that we survived in this region for several thousand years. The fertility due to the unique geographical structure of the sub-continent is a natural gift. Consciously/sub-consciously/systemically realizing it and living on it for thousands of years is wisdom.

The Great Change

Then came along the colonialists. We all kinda know what happened. I'd just like to place an exerpt from Lord Macaulay's speech in the British Parliament on 2nd Feb 1835 (quoted elsewhere in various contexts on the web--typically nationalistic sounding ones). I first found it in Amartya Sen's book The Argumentative Indian:

"I have traveled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such calibre, that I do not think we would ever conquer this country, unless we break the very backbone of this nation, which is her spiritual and cultural heritage, and, therefore, I propose that we replace her old and ancient education system, her culture, for if the Indians think that all that is foreign and English is good and greater than their own, they will lose their self-esteem, their native self-culture and they will become what we want them, a truly dominated nation."

Several things changed after the advent of the colonialists. Some for "our" good, one could argue? For instance, the colonialists left at the end of a major war. (One of the root-causes was colonisation itself!) India was freed, right? The specific form of exploiting of India's resources changed from that of direct occupation to a more subtle and effective form called "Free Trade". The Bretton Woods system ratified all capitalist nations' interests in continued exploitation of natural resources by the still-ruling powers of the world (namely US, Britain, France, etc.). Free Trade, in other words, is a system of exploitation of a so-called Third World nation's resources by someone with Little Green Pieces of Paper on the lines of, "If you let me take your stuff, you'll get these little green pieces of paper with which you can buy the finished goods I produce using your nation's resources."

Female infanticide

Besides improvement in the quality of lives of those people who accepted the little green pieces of paper, there were arguably some other improvements. For instance, they "taught" the peoples what it means to be "humane". Female infanticide, what a terrible and ruthless thing it is! But... it is also important to realize that this so-called "inhumane" killing of the girl baby is a very effective means of population control. (By no means am I justifying or arguing for female infanticide here. Far from it.)

In the wild, many males go unmated. A male doesn't mean more individuals. A female that survives, however, very likely results in more children. Educating the females coupled with eradication of female infanticide would have worked. But with India, it was a half done job... and that's worse than not doing the job at all.

Take away that population stabilisation mechanism of female infanticide and add to it the joke called the Green Revolution, and India saw her population rise and her once-stable ways of life completely changed forever. Today, we're a billion+ and to feed that growing population, we had to adopt ways of agriculture that were previously not thought of. Today, India boasts of vast areas of degraded soil. It was a forgone conclusion that she would end up in this situation given the decisions that were made by the so-called Leaders of that Era.

Where be the Wisdom?

The colonialists are back (strong statement, indeed ;-) )--under the name of Monsanto, DuPont and several other MNC "Agri Businesses" who promise to solve the problem of the world's poverty. (Does that ring a bell?) Last time, it was by releasing the locked up nitrogen in a finite endowment of natural gas to create fertilizers, developing an infrastructure of farm mechanisation that relied (and still relies) on fossil fuels (specifically diesel) and quickly releasing water stored up in deep aquifers through the use of, yet again, cheap fossil fuels. (A significant portion of electricity comes from Coal + Oil + Natural Gas.)

This time, they're back with the same old excuse of attempting to solve world's poverty by manipulating our domesticated life forms' DNA.

So what exactly is their system of "solving world hunger"?

1. The company has had a successful herbicide product called Round Up. (Remember, Agent Orange?) The herbicide kills just about anything in its way. Earlier, farmers had to exercise care when spraying the herbicide because they ran the risk of killing their own crops too. Roundup is a non-selective weed killer. The paradox with life is that, the more we apply selection pressure, the more "evolved" the species we're trying to kill becomes. This is because those individuals that could be killed are already gone! The ones that remain are the ones who were difficult to kill in the first place, and if they manage to leave their progeny, those progeny are likely equally difficult too! Over just a few generations, things become very difficult for one generation of humans. The use of just the herbicide alone didn't scale well. We talk "scale" only when we talk growth. However, stability needs resilience. The job done by the frogs, the sparrows, the spiders, the lizards and the earthworms were now replaced by one single plastic bottle with a TradeMarked logo on it. How neat?

2. Since the herbicide solution didn't scale they had to do a round two of their fight against nature - through Genetic Engineering. They "invented" a new "variety" of crop that was resistant to the herbicide (called "Round Up Ready Whatever"). All was good for a while, until recently (2 years ago) when farmers started reporting Super Weeds. Life evolves in amazingly powerful ways. This was just one example.

3. Genetic Engineering has two peculiar problems:

a. Bugs: If a Microsoft writes buggy code, they can send a "fix". But what happens when there are "bugs" in the genetically engineered code? How do you fix a plant? Today's genetic engineering methods are still crude. It's not like we insert a nano-particle that reads through the genes and "modifies" the genes. They merely insert some other animal's genes that produces the desired proteins!

b. Intellectual Property: Life replicates. That's the equivalent of piracy, only naturally done by the bees.

To avoid these two problems, they introduced Terminator Technology. Simply put, the seeds produced by the GM crops aren't seeds. They cannot produce new plants when sown. They're merely grains for consumption. Seed saving--the very practice that brought about agriculture, will no longer be applicable since the seeds are all impotent. I'm sure we have all read about farmer suicides and the wide-spread cause of suffering due to this very enslavement.

Ah, solve hunger by killing people? That makes sense! Oh wait, that "scale" requires farm machinery which, by today's infrastructure, is all designed to run on diesel.

Now, I'd like to draw you to the end of this post by instilling a sense of hope through this real life story that I've been quite proud of...

On our farm, we decided to sow only native variety rice seeds. We picked two varieties namely "Garudan Samba" and "Gandakasala". We had to obtain them with much difficulty since the government makes only narrow-mindedly designed rice varieties from the IRRI available to the farmers. At first, the locals (having forgotten their own ways of traditional, resilient agriculture) laughed at us and even questioned if such things will be "practical" in today's world. Grace be to the all merciless, non-existent God! The rains poured and destroyed their crops at a completely unseasonal time. Our crops were damaged, but not destroyed completely. Now, they are beginning to see the advantanges.

They're curious to find out how to obtain these seeds. They're still using pesticides. But they're beginning to see the birds perched atop our now-growing trees helping with pest control. They're still using fertilizers but that's because:

1. Fertile, naturally rich soils aren't anywhere around. Our soil has just begun the recovery from the damages due to prolonged nitrogen fertilizer use in the past (ie., before we bought this land).

2. Fertilizers are still pretty much free flowing in this Peak Moment.

I've become pretty much cynical that most of the time, it is only the shock doctrine that helps bring the masses to reality. Those very things can also be learnt by applying thought--however challenging or even depressing that might seem initially.

If you'd like to "take away" anything from this post: All I ask the reader to do is to switch to locally produced foods that are not GM. Every paisa is a profit that helps further their ways of enslavement and suffering. It kills our wisdom, however foolish and ridiculous it might sound to the "Free Thinking" West. Ridicule works and we must not fall prey to their old ways. Free Thought brings with it a sense of confidence and a dash of arrogance. Knowing that arrogance is Wisdom. Evolutionary studies today show that the genetic differences amongst the so-called "races" are totally insignificant and that it has just been mere chance that led to the rise and fall of several civilizations. The people of this sub-continent didn't use coal in 19th century and oil in the 20th century like the "Colonisers" were doing. But coal and oil are just finite resources. The success of the West is only temporary, and eventually the West will have to deal with reality in ways we've all come to accept in the past--thousands of years ago.

An American Indian quote to end the post:

Only after the last tree has been cut down, Only after the last river has been poisoned, Only after the last fish has been caught, Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/tJAeUqqSL_8/3057-rubber-m

A new material developed by researchers at Princeton and Caltech is capable of harvesting energy from the simplest of movements like walking or breathing.  This new rubber chip made of PZT (lead zirconate titanate) nanoribbons could eventually power small portable electronic devices like cell phones.

The PZT is embedded in silicone rubber sheets that produce electricity when flexed or other pressure is applied.  The scientists who developed the chip see them being inserted into shoes or even within the body to continually harness power for our portable devices.

Before that freaks you out too much, the scientists envision the chips being placed next to the lungs to utilize breathing motions for powering pacemakers.  Pacemaker users wouldn't have to undergo surgery to replace batteries since their breathing would be a constant source of energy.

The reason this particular material stands out compared to all of the other piezoelectric materials out there is that it's far more efficient.  According to the researchers, PZT can convert 80 percent of mechanical energy applied to it into electric energy, which is 100 times more efficient than quartz.  That efficiency allows it to harness such small movements like breathing and opens up a much greater range of possibilities for its use.

via CNET

 

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/5drFd58t95w/6177

Open Letter to President Obama

Dear President Obama,

Your State of the Union speech last week laudably referenced clean tech and renewable energy several times. We ask that you follow your words with action, by leading the transition to a post-carbon economy and a healthier world.

You also spoke of our need to face hard truths.

Hard truth: Our continued, willful reliance on fossil fuels is making our planet uninhabitable. We are evicting ourselves from the only paradise we’ve ever known.

Hard truth: No combination of current and anticipated renewable sources can maintain our profligate energy usage as the global supply of fossil fuels heads for terminal decline.

Russia's 'fracked' future

MOSCOW (UPI) -- For most of the past decade, Russian leaders and their top officials and businessmen have believed that their huge reserves of oil and gas would guarantee them prosperity and global influence for decades to come. But suddenly some cracks are emerging in that confidence.

As often happens, technology is changing the conventional wisdom. Over the past five years the combination of two technologies has transformed the energy market in the United States and now threatens to do the same elsewhere in the world.

Foreign Firms Angle for Uganda's Oil Reserves

A skirmish over an oil field on the shores of Africa's Lake Albert highlights Big Oil's intense interest in Uganda -- a rising star of African energy.

Doctoral thesis: Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects total natural gas output in the EU to decrease from 216 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/year) in 2006 to 90 bcm/year in 2030. For the same period, EU demand for natural gas is forecast to increase rapidly. In 2006 demand for natural gas in the EU amounted to 532 bcm/year. By 2030, it is expected to reach 680 bcm/year. As a consequence, the widening gap between EU production and consumption requires a 90% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030. The main sources of imported gas for the EU are Russia and Norway. Between them they accounted for 62% of the EU’s gas imports in 2006. The objective of this thesis is to assess the potential future levels of gas supplies to the EU from its two main suppliers, Norway and Russia.

Without action, Texas' power supply will run out

Having an adequate supply of available electric power at reasonable prices is vital to existing business activity, as well as future economic development. However, studies (by my firm as well as other entities analyzing the issue) consistently show a potential shortage of electric power in Texas without significant capacity additions to the electric grid in the coming years.

Nigeria: Banks Behind Oil Marketers Demand For Promissory Notes From FG

Lagos — Strong indications emerged at the weekend that the new demand by oil marketers for issuance of promisory notes before they could access banks loans was actually sponsored by bank executives.

Oil Marketers, under the aegis of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN), have listed issuance of promissory notes by the Federal Government as a part of new requirement before they would resume full importation.

Pakistan: Over 9% rise in petroleum prices a major blow to industry

LAHORE: The business community has strongly criticised the decision of the government for increasing petroleum prices and said it would result in price hike and play havoc with every sector.

Pakistan: Worst gas shortage in the offing

Karachi—To overcome energy crisis Pakistan is currently working on gas import options including LNG imports of 300-600mmcfd of gas in the next three years besides the much talked about piped gas from Iran with total imported quantity quoted at 2100mmcfd.

However the energy experts feel that since both projects will come on stream with substantial time lag, it is feared that the gas shortage will worsen substantially till the time the much delayed Iran gas pipeline project materialized.

The Philippines: Investors urged to put up nuclear plant in Cebu

CEBU — The Provincial Government of Cebu is encouraging investors in the power industry to consider putting up a nuclear plant in Cebu to provide a lasting solution to the power crisis in the Visayas grid.

Russia to supply about 3 bln Kw/h of electricity to Baltics via Belarus in 2010

MOSCOW, February 1 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia’s electricity transit to the Baltic states via Belarus will amount to about 3 billion kilowatt-hours in 2010, an official at the Russian electricity export-import operator Inter RAO UES said on Monday.

“The transit agreement with Belenergo envisions planned capacities and quantitative indicators for Inter RAO UES’s electricity transit through the Belarusian national power grid,” the official said.

BP Expects to Lose $1.6 Billion on Shipping, Solar

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, expects to lose about $1.6 billion in its solar and shipping businesses this year, said Chief Financial Officer Byron Grote.

In 2010, BP expects the quarterly loss, excluding non- operating items, for alternative energy and shipping and some other businesses to average around $400 million.

In winter's chill, cold batteries mean trouble for plug-in cars

Nobody worried about cold-weather performance of electric vehicle battery packs when it was warm outside, but now that Old Man Winter has descended, the problem is beginning to surface. When cars have a range of no more than 100 miles, the loss of 20 to 30 percent of that is a very big issue indeed.

Climate change: 'Berkeley has a special obligation'

The relationship between income and energy use is no coincidence, and recognizing that simple fact is an essential part of getting past the current stalemate and finding answers to climate change, Roland-Holst, an adjunct professor in Berkeley's Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, told the 100 or so climate-change experts gathered at Berkeley Thursday for "Beyond Copenhagen: Forging a Global Response to Climate Change." The conference reviewed what happened at Copenhagen and looked at the future of ongoing negotiations over global warming.

ARE economist David Roland-Holst's chart — which one of his graduate students calls his 'demonic bubble bath' — shows the tight relationship between energy use and prosperity, a key climate change issue. Based on World Bank and International Energy Agency data, the vertical axis plots per capita energy use in terajoules/year; the horizontal is per capita income as measured by the GDP. Bubble sizes represent population.

Oil near $75 in Asia amid improved economic data

BANGKOK – Oil prices headed toward $75 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as regional stock markets snapped a losing streak and economic data suggested U.S. crude demand could improve.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was up 27 cents at $74.70 a barrel at early afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.54 to settle at $74.43 on Monday.

Peak oil looms

As 2009 ended, a report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) received scant media attention, but it has huge implications for future U.S. economic growth and national security.

Faith Birol, chief economist for the IEA, announced that unless there are major new oil discoveries, something his agency does not expect, the output of conventional oil production will peak in 2020. The agency's official conclusion is that production will reach a plateau sometime before 2030.

The news was startling from an agency that had previously refused to predict when oil supplies might stop growing. In fact, the IEA, closely watched by the world energy markets as an objective analytical source, had previously downplayed the prospects that oil production was reaching a peak.

20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon: Which trigger will ignite the Great Depression II, wipe out your retirement?

6. Peak Oil and the Population Bomb. China and India each need 500 new cities. The United Nations estimates world population exploding 50% from 6 billion to 9 billion by 2050: Three billion more humans demanding more automobiles, exhausting more resources to feed their version of the gas-guzzling "America Dream."

Total to Halt Refining Operations at Flanders Plant

(Bloomberg) -- Total SA, Europe’s largest refiner, plans to halt refining operations at its idle Flanders plant permanently after the recession eroded demand for oil products.

“I don’t see the possibility that the refinery will restart,” Total’s head of refining, Michel Benezit, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “It makes no sense to continue refining when there are no clients.”

Israeli Gas Importer Maiman Says Tshuva Find to Increase Demand

(Bloomberg) -- Yosef Maiman, who holds 22 percent of Israel’s only importer of gas from Egypt, said the country’s record gas discovery off the coast of Haifa will increase demand for the fuel and help grow his business.

“Eventually the market will make room for the both of us,” Maiman, 63, said in an interview at the Herzliya Conference, referring to billionaire Yitzhak Tshuva, whose Delek Group Ltd. is part of a partnership that made the gas discovery last year. “Converting an economy from fossil fuels to gas isn’t a quick process, but the more gas we get, the more usages we will find for it. I hope it will benefit our company as well.”

BP Sees ‘Slow’ Recovery as Profit Misses Estimates

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, expects the recovery from last year’s recession to be “slow and gradual” as fourth-quarter earnings missed analyst estimates.

Italy Oil Bill May Rise 36 Percent, Trade Group Says

(Bloomberg) -- Italy will spend as much as 36 percent more on oil this year, the equivalent of about 1.8 percent of gross domestic product, according to industry group Unione Petrolifera.

India steps up scramble with China for African energy

LUANDA (AFP) – India has stepped up its efforts to gain an economic foothold in Africa in a new scramble with China for the continent's resources, signing energy deals with top oil producers Angola and Nigeria.

PetroChina to Sell $1.6 Billion Notes for Expansion

(Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest oil and gas producer, plans to sell 11 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) of notes in its first domestic debt offering this year to help finance domestic and overseas expansion.

Cash requirements for the company’s exploration, refining and pipeline divisions will continue to rise “significantly” this year, PetroChina said in a statement yesterday on the Web site of Chinabond, the nation’s largest debt-clearing house. The sale of the seven-year, medium-term debt will be on Feb. 5.

CEZ Trading Director Sees Power Demand Rising Further

(Bloomberg) -- CEZ AS Trading Director Alan Svoboda said the Czech Republic’s largest utility anticipates continued recovery in power usage.

“Demand should continue to improve” in the first quarter, Svoboda said today in an interview at a conference in Prague, adding that future growth in electricity consumption will be linked to economic recovery.

Nigeria to Auction 2 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves, FT Says

(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria plans to auction some 2 billion barrels of oil reserves by the end of the year, the Financial Times reported, citing comments from Emmanuel Egbogah, special adviser to the president on petroleum matters.

Baylor Researcher Finds Methane Hydrate in Gulf Using New Search Method

A Baylor University researcher has used a new search method that he adapted for use on the seafloor to find a potentially massive source of hydrocarbon energy called methane hydrate, a frozen form of natural gas, in a portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

Dr. John Dunbar, associate professor of geology at Baylor, and his team used an electrical resistivity method to acquire geophysical data at the site, located roughly 50 miles off the Louisiana coast. The Baylor researchers were able to provide a detailed map of where the methane hydrate is located and how deep it extends underneath the seafloor.

Panel Suggests 100 Ways Buildings Can Be Greener

A panel of experts convened by the mayor and City Council issued more than 100 recommendations Monday on how to make New York City’s building codes more environmentally sound by imposing energy-saving requirements on construction and renovation work.

White Roofs May Successfully Cool Cities, Computer Model Demonstrates

ScienceDaily — Painting the roofs of buildings white has the potential to significantly cool cities and mitigate some impacts of global warming, a new study indicates. The new NCAR-led research suggests there may be merit to an idea advanced by U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu that white roofs can be an important tool to help society adjust to climate change.

China’s Smart Grid Investments Growing

China’s overall federal stimulus investments in smart grid projects will surpass the United States’ in 2010, according to a forthcoming market research report — though not on a per capita basis.

Japan leads the race for a hydrogen fuel-cell car

Japanese carmakers, such as Toyota, are developing an affordable hydrogen car using fuel cells. Meanwhile, the government and energy companies are funding hydrogen refueling stations needed for the cars' widespread use.

Converting Coal Plants to Biomass

Coal-powered generating stations retrofitted to run on a mixture of coal and dried wood pellets can produce cost-competitive, emission-reduced electricity even without the advent of a cap-and-trade system, according to a new biomass life cycle analysis published in the Journal of Environmental Science and Technology.

For utilities under pressure to meet renewable portfolio standards, biomass should be considered along with wind, solar and small-scale hydro, says Heather MacLean, the lead researcher and an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Toronto.

Shell Pushes Brazilian Ethanol After Scaling Back Wind, Solar

(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the oil company that started an ethanol venture with Cosan SA Industria & Comercio in Brazil, is pushing biofuels as an alternative energy investment over wind and solar.

Solar Brokering Firm Assesses First Year

A co-founder of the San Francisco solar-purchasing brokerage One Block Off the Grid, or 1BOG, as it is more commonly known, says his business model is proving effective.

"Strong risk" of 2010 famine in Africa's Sahel: EU

DAKAR (Reuters) - Millions in West Africa's arid Sahel belt could face famine this year unless the world acts quickly to help, the European Union's humanitarian aid arm said on Thursday.

The warning came as Niger confirmed the veracity of a leaked government forecast that half its population will face food shortages this year after a dive in grain production, but said it had enough food stocks to care for the most needy.

Study: 1 in 8 get help at food banks

One in eight Americans — 37 million — received emergency food help last year, up 46% from 2005, the nation's largest hunger-relief group reports today.

Children are hit particularly hard, according to the report by Feeding America, a network of 203 food banks nationwide. One in five children, 14 million, received food from soup kitchens, food pantries and other agencies, up from 9 million in 2005, the year of the group's last major survey.

Of Dr. Seuss and Coal Gasification

The company that protects the copyrights on the works of Theodore Geisel, better known as the children’s book author Dr. Seuss, has sent a cease-and-desist letter to a Massachusetts company looking to get into the coal business under the name Lorax — the title character of a story published in 1971.

“There’s no reason for them to use the term,” said Karl ZoBell, the long-time lawyer for Dr. Seuss Enterprises, “except to purloin the good will attached to the book and use it for a company that appears to be the opposite of everything the book is about.”

US firm kicked out of Peru mining group for pollution

LIMA (AFP) – Peru's mining, oil and energy association (SNMPE) said Saturday it has expelled US mining company Doe Run from its roster for not cleaning up its pollution problems, which environmentalists say are among the worst in the world.

Is There an Ecological Unconscious?

In Albrecht’s view, the residents of the Upper Hunter were suffering not just from the strain of living in difficult conditions but also from something more fundamental: a hitherto unrecognized psychological condition. In a 2004 essay, he coined a term to describe it: “solastalgia,” a combination of the Latin word solacium (comfort) and the Greek root –algia (pain), which he defined as “the pain experienced when there is recognition that the place where one resides and that one loves is under immediate assault . . . a form of homesickness one gets when one is still at ‘home.’ ” A neologism wasn’t destined to stop the mines; they continued to spread. But so did Albrecht’s idea. In the past five years, the word “solastalgia” has appeared in media outlets as disparate as Wired, The Daily News in Sri Lanka and Andrew Sullivan’s popular political blog, The Daily Dish. In September, the British trip-hop duo Zero 7 released an instrumental track titled “Solastalgia,” and in 2008 Jukeen, a Slovenian recording artist, used the word as an album title. “Solastalgia” has been used to describe the experiences of Canadian Inuit communities coping with the effects of rising temperatures; Ghanaian subsistence farmers faced with changes in rainfall patterns; and refugees returning to New Orleans after Katrina.

Rock Icon Andy Fraser Champions Global Warming Issue with Powerful Song “This is the Big One”

Nashville, TN (Billboard Publicity Wire/PRWEB ) -- Andy Fraser, founding member of the influential 1970’s rock group, ‘Free,’ and writer of their mega-hit “All Right Now,” continues to spread the message about global warming and resulting catastrophic climate change through his powerful song and video, “This is the Big One.”

Obama's climate change police

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Copenhagen climate talks went nowhere. The Senate's attempt to pass a global warming bill appears stuck. But that's doesn't mean greenhouse gas laws aren't coming.

The Environmental Protection Agency, spurred by a Supreme Court ruling, is racing to fill the void. As early as March, the EPA could be required to cap greenhouse gases from things like power plants and large factories, essentially doing what Senate Democrats want, without a messy vote.

UK emissions drop by nearly 2 per cent in 2008

The UK’s greenhouse gas emissions reduced by nearly 2 per cent during 2008, compared with 2007, the latest statistics from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) show.

Publishing its final estimates for 2008 today, the Department says that the drop show that the UK is ‘on target’ to meet it’s our Kyoto-set target of 12.5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. It total the drop of 1.9 per cent in emissions brings the UK emission-levels to 19.4 per cent below 1990 levels.

Japan Aims to Get Bulk of Emissions Cuts in Japan, Nikkei Says

(Bloomberg) -- Japan wants to achieve 60 percent or more of its target for reducing carbon-dioxide emissions through efforts within the country, Nikkei English News reported, without saying how it obtained the information.

U.S., China, others join Copenhagen Accord on climate

Reporting from Washington - The United States, China and dozens of other countries accounting for nearly 80% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions have signed onto a voluntary agreement to curb climate change.

If the countries make good on their pledges, they will dramatically reduce the emissions scientists link to global warming, but not enough to hold temperatures to levels scientists say are needed to minimize risks of drought, flooding and other catastrophic effects.

Study Finds a Tree Growth Spurt

Forests in the eastern United States appear to be growing faster in response to rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a new study has found.

The study centered on trees in mixed hardwood stands on the western edge of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland that are representative of much of the those on the Eastern Seaboard.

All are growing two to four times as fast as normal, according to a study published in Tuesday’s issue of The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

After controlling for other variables, scientists concluded that the change resulted largely from the increase in carbon dioxide, a major factor in climate change.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/K7gv-eUITo8/6175

This is a guest post by Gregor Macdonald. Gregor's blog is gregor.us.

It was the best of times for the developing world, and the worst of times for the developed world. In the developing world, they built savings. In the developed world, they groaned and sagged under the weight of debt. In a world where the credit of developed nations had always been believed, the serial monetizations and bailouts set loose an emerging incredulity–driving developing nations into gold, commodity currencies, and land. In the aftermath of the financial crisis the developing world, measured at about 4.5 billion people, lumbered forth with its insatiable demand for energy. Mostly coal.

In the developed world? They replaced their lost demand, lost credit, and the loss of cheap energy the best they knew how: with paper.

OECD demand growth for oil faltered years ago, as far back as 2004 when oil went above the “unthinkable” price of 40 dollars a barrel. In the developing world, the escalating price of oil did not as much delay, as divert, energy demand to the powergrid. To an extent that’s hard to measure, but certainly evidenced by power generation buildout and growth in electrified transport, the rising price of oil sent a confirmatory signal to the Non-OECD: stay on your coal trajectory. Of course, overall demand for all types of energy in the developing world took off ten years ago. Indeed, in 2008 for the first time ever, energy demand in the Non-OECD eclipsed by a hair all energy demand in the OECD. Roughly speaking, we can think of the OECD as the oil users, and the Non-OECD as the coal users. Gaze upon the chart below:

When the developing world faced higher oil prices, it guided its development toward power generation. But when the developed world, already married to an oil based infrastructure, faced higher oil prices it guided its development towards growth in credit. The United States is the number 2 user of coal, behind China, at 565 mtoe per year. And Germany is the number 7 user of coal at 85 mtoe per year. But coal demand growth in the OECD is largely halted by infrastructure. Most of the power generation additions in the OECD the past 30 years have been natural gas fired. Take a look at the growth of coal demand over the past 20 years, meanwhile, back in the developing world.

While the United States has little room for growth in coal demand, it does indeed have room to reduce coal demand as the depression rolls onward. It should not have been a surprise to anyone following the latest failed recovery in the housing market, the continued crash in the commercial real estate market, and the predictable fall-offs in auto production (since cash for clunkers) that US electricity demand is going nowhere. Thus, when CSX Railroad announced last week that shipments of coal to US utilities would not be strong this year, it was confirmatory to the macro trend. Although natural gas is “more expensive” on a per unit basis, it generally takes a much bigger spread to get utilities to actually favor coal over natural gas as the latter can be burnt with lower regulatory costs.

The expansion of the FED’s balance sheet and the explosion in government debt issuance, therefore, may have eased the pain of the US industrial and consumer collapse–but they’ve done nothing to revive real demand. And the coming tail-off in electricity use even from low levels is yet another sign that the 2009 stimulus package as well did not come back to Washington in the form of higher industrial activity–and higher tax receipts. Indeed, tax receipts on both the state and federal level are awful and this accounts for recent declarations from Illinois, New York, and California that they are essentially broke. In all that empty commercial real estate across the country, where no shoppers roam, and no sales tax is recorded, the thermostats are turned down, and the lights are turned off.

Meanwhile, there is every indication that the FED is going to have to extend its quantitative easing as the supply of Treasuries continues to ramp higher, while US savings and international capital flows are simply not enough to supply the necessary bid, in US Treasuries. Moreover, it’s likely that a great deal of last year’s bid in US Treasuries was simply the FED’s monetization of the mortgage-backed securities market (MBS) coming back in the form of Treasury demand. The FED in a program of ongoing duration started purchasing 1.3 trillion of MBS starting last year, with the intent to continue through the end of March 2010. Should they not extend the MBS purchase program, I would expect Treasury prices to fall. Foreigners have already been avoiding the longer end of the bond curve, or simply reducing Treasury purchases overall. (See: Debt Burden Now Rests More on US Shoulders.)

Additionally, there is the problem of duration, in that Treasury has been funding a large portion of US deficit spending with shorter duration bonds. That means a larger number of bonds mature in shorter timeframes. Thus, in 2010, the US not only has to float a large new supply of Treasuries but it has to find buyers for its maturing supply of Treasuries. (See: The $700 Billion U.S. Funding Hole; Desperately Seeking A Very Indiscriminate Treasury Buyer.)

Surprisingly, or perhaps perversely, 2010 sees an accelerated continuation of the 10 year trend in developing world coal demand and developed world credit growth. For all of its reflationary firepower, the OECD has at best eased the acute phase of deflation while sparking strong inflation in the Non-OECD. Here in the developed world we continue to see asset price deflation in real estate, though notably, our purchasing power has started to fall in the aggregate in both the US and in Britain. (In China, inflation threatens to rage.)

The problem for the OECD is that energy demand in the Non OECD does not translate well to demand growth for US Treasuries or UK Gilts. Coal prices are strong however because US utilities may not require more coal but pan-Asian utilities continue to build capacity, and the trajectory higher continues.

In January 2009 I asserted that the 27 year bull market in US Treasuries had ended in the blow off panic spike (in prices) just that December. I maintain that view now. And, while Washington may at times entertain thoughts of choosing a deflationary pathway out of the crisis–call it a liquidationist urge, if you will–the voices that beckon to inflate our way out of the crisis will always win out in the end.

The developing world is clear-eyed enough to know that it cannot depend on developed world demand to keep its factories running. This is why a lot of direct trade occurs now within the Non-OECD that is designed to both trigger domestic demand and also facilitate resource-for-resource deals which lock up supply.

It is in the developed world however that the lack of sobriety has reached epidemic levels, as we keep trying to replace both energy inputs and production-–with credit. When the growth in private credit could no longer carry the weight and failed, we embarked on a mad dash to do the same with sovereign credit. If the OECD and especially the United States were building new power generation or electrified transport with this credit, we could at least expect to get some return on the investment. But alas, we are hellbent still in trying to revive consumer demand. Thus, for all the growth in government debt, we are doing nothing more than pouring water on concrete.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/OUlYE7_XhCc/3058-italy-to

Italian port cities are planning to connect large ships like cruise liners to the grid while they're berthed to cut fuel consumption and potentially slash carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent and nitrogen oxides and particulate pollution by more than 95 percent.

Venice, Paolo Costa, La Spezia and Lorenzo Forcieri are all expected to install new equipment to allow the ships to plug in to shore-side electricity.  Other cities around the world are experimenting with the same idea, including Los Angeles and Goteborg, Sweden, hoping to eliminate the fuel needs and emissions of onboard generators.

The Italian electricity utility Enel foresees large reductions in pollution and fuel consumption from the practice, but since so far only a few ships are compatible with on-shore electricity, we won't know the full benefits until ports and ships are equipped and the generators are turned off.

via Green Inc.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/7pziIKR6xM8/6179

Exxon Dives Deep into High-Risk Exploration

Hardly known as a wildcatter, Exxon Mobil Corp. is searching for oil in most of the world's regions where high-risk exploration is under way, even as other big oil companies are being more selective and cutting capital spending.

So far, though, Exxon has little to show from its exploration campaign and needs to make large discoveries soon to justify the increased spending.

Exxon has "tried to put a tiger in the exploration hat," said Neil Mc Mahon, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst. But it has "only pulled out a fluffy bunny so far."

Call made for gas network

The chief of Oman’s main gas transportation firm called for the development of a regional GCC gas pipeline network, but said higher local gas prices would be needed to support such a project.

“We need an integrated approach to putting a gas network in the area,” Yousuf al Ojaili, the chief executive of Oman Gas, told the Gas Arabia Summit in Abu Dhabi yesterday. “Enough studies have been done. We need to move to the next step.”

Why Iraq Remains a Puzzle for the U.S.

(CBS) A professor of sociology at Stony Brook State University, Michael Schwartz is the author of War Without End: The Iraq War in Context (Haymarket Press), which explains how the militarized geopolitics of oil led the U.S. to dismantle the Iraqi state and economy while fueling a sectarian civil war.

'Russia unlikely to make oil tax switch soon'

Russia is unlikely to switch to a profit-based oil taxation system before 2012, chief financial officer at state-controlled oil major Rosneft, Peter O'Brien, said today.

Oil services poised to grow in 2010

Barclays Capital has a bullish report on the global oil service industry, which it says will grow this year after passing the low point for activity in the fourth quarter of 2009. The reports predicts an 11 per cent rebound in worldwide spending on exploration and production this year.

Nigeria Cement Makers Cut By HSBC on Fuel Shortages

(Bloomberg) -- Three of Nigeria’s four biggest cement makers had their recommendations cut by HSBC Holdings Plc on concern fuel shortages in Africa’s biggest oil-producing nation will cause earnings to “disappoint.”

Militant attacks have disrupted pipeline supplies from the Niger Delta oil region, cutting output from four state-run refineries and causing the West African nation to rely on imports to meet 80 percent of daily domestic needs. Fuel shortages have worsened since November after companies including Exxon Mobile Corp. and Total SA stopped importing oil into the country because of debt owed to them by the government.

Valero doesn't see fuel shortage after Quebec fire

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Quebec is not expected to be hit with gasoline shortages as a result of a fire that damaged the Canadian province's biggest refinery, a spokesman for the company that operates the refinery said on Tuesday.

Depletion of Key Resources: Facts at Your Fingertips

Modern industrial society is based on a triad of hydrocarbons, metals, and electricity. The three are intricately connected; each is accessible only if the other two are present. Electricity, for example, can be generated on a global scale only with hydrocarbons. The same dependence on hydrocarbons is true of metals; in fact the better types of ore are now becoming depleted, while those that remain can be processed only with modern machinery and require more hydrocarbons for smelting. In turn, without metals and electricity there would be no means of extracting and processing hydrocarbons. Of the three members of the triad, electricity is the most fragile, and its failure serves as an early warning of trouble with the other two.

White House report: Develop more crops for biofuels

Washington, D.C. — The nation won't meet its biofuels goals unless the government accelerates the development of biofuel crops and products, the White House says.

In a report being released today, an administration task force said the government needs, among other things, to set targets for commercializing new types of fuel crops, such as switchgrass.

Energy Quiz: What renewable fuel delivers the most net energy?

Surprise! Humble firewood yields the highest energy return on energy invested.

Russia boasts 100% reserve replacement

Russia has fully replaced oil output with new reserves since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev said today, as the world's top energy nation seeks to maintain record oil output levels.

Trutnev said in a statement Russian oil reserves as of 1 January were equal to the reserves of 1990.

About 51.3 billion barrels produced since then had been fully replaced with new reserves, he said.

Saudi Oil Flows East: China's Ever Increasing Appetite for Oil

One more measure of China’s growing global clout – so much Saudi oil is flowing China’s way that it may soon replace the U.S. as the leading market for the world’s largest oil exporter.

Saudi Aramco Completes Ras Tanura Asphalt Unit Work

Saudi Arabia, holder of the world’s largest oil reserves and the biggest producer in the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, imports refined products such as gasoline because it lacks capacity to meet domestic demand.

Aramco is investing in refining capacity even given the current poor returns, Chief Executive Officer Khalid al-Falih said at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. Refiners worldwide have postponed expansion projects and idled plants in the past year as the global recession eroded fuel demand, squeezing profit margins for oil processors.

Venezuela Cuts Power Use Amid Conservation Drive

(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela cut electricity consumption last month after President Hugo Chavez ordered homes, businesses and government offices to save power as water levels plunged at hydroelectric dams.

The country used 9,557 gigawatt-hours of electricity in January, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier, according to preliminary figures on the Web site of the National Administration Center, the electricity-grid operator known as the CNG. Consumption fell 8.1 percent from December.

Iran seen boosting gas supplies to Turkey - minister

ANKARA (Reuters) - Iran is expected to boost gas sales to Turkey from current levels of between $1.5-2.0 billion a year, Turkish State Minister Cevdet Yilmaz said after meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Wednesday.

Oil price predicted to be low this year
February 2nd 2010

Despite the world’s long term march toward peak oil – the time when daily oil supply to the world can no longer be expanded – oil may see more downside than upside in this year comments Saxo Bank. Even a dramatic geopolitical disruption related to Iran’s nuclear ambitions may do little to upset the well-supplied energy markets. After the spectacular collapse in oil in late 2008 on the heels of the credit meltdown and worldwide recession, oil went on to rally more than 100% off its lows around $35 dollar per barrel in early 2009 to as high as $82 dollars by later in the year. Prices recovered as risk appetite recovered in general and on higher demand. As well, oil was partially caught up in the USD carry trade and the idea that it was better to own hard goods rather than paper currency, though this effect was far more pronounced for gold than oil.

Shifting More Freight to Rail Isn't Always Such a Great Idea

The U.S. government has introduced various incentives to motivate companies to use rail transportation more often to move their freight, with the goal of a greener transportation system throughout the country. However, there's no real evidence that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would be reduced by forcing truck traffic onto the rails, says Noël Perry, managing director and senior consultant with FTR Associates. In fact, it's quite the contrary -- most freight currently moving by truck would consume more energy if converted to a 100% rail move, he points out.

Lithuanian official sees deal on new nuclear plant by early 2011

Riga - A final agreement on construction of a new nuclear power plant in Lithuania will be signed by early 2011 at the latest, Lithuanian Energy Minister Arvydas Sekomokas said Wednesday.

Speaking to the German Press Agency dpa on the sidelines of an energy and infrastructure conference in the Latvian capital, Sekmokas said an agreement binding together the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, plus Poland and a yet-to-be-chosen private strategic investor, would be signed 'at the end of this year or, in a worst-case scenario, early next year.'

Lack of Australian nuclear plant almost immoral: Cosgrove

FORMER defence force chief Peter Cosgrove has pleaded for Australia to embrace nuclear power, criticising the "daily scrapping" between politicians about climate change.

Addressing a business breakfast in Perth, General Cosgrove said strong action was crucial and it was "almost immoral" to export uranium to less technologically advanced and stable countries to use in nuclear power plants while refusing to have one in Australia.

Tony Abbott's compost idea is not so corny

IT wasn't fear of global warming that prompted farmer Cam McKellar to start producing a humified compost that captures and stores carbon in his soil.

Rather, it was a simple business decision.

"It's about increasing the fertility of the soil, improving yields and producing better-quality food," says Mr McKellar, who runs a 1200ha corn and mixed-crop farm at Spring Ridge, 100km southwest of Tamworth in northeast NSW.

No apology from IPCC chief Rajendra Pachauri for glacier fallacy

The embattled chief of the UN's climate change body has hit out at his critics and refused to resign or apologise for a ­damaging mistake in a landmark 2007 report on global warming.

IPCC flooded by criticism

Just over two years after winning the Nobel Peace Prize, the United Nations panel on climate change is undergoing a period of soul-searching.

Phishing Scam Cripples European Emissions Trading

Sneaky cyber-thieves have made millions by fraudulently obtaining European greenhouse gas emissions allowances and reselling them. The scam has hampered trading of the credits, which are seen as an important tool in curbing climate change, in several European countries.

Jeff Rubin: Why can't we build coal plants, too?

Just because North Americans have lost faith in international environmental summits doesn’t mean that environmental—and, in particular, carbon—concerns don’t factor more and more into our economies and our everyday lives.

Try setting up a brand-spanking new coal-fired power plant, like the 800 China and India will have on the go, and see how far you get in the approval process. With the exception of major coal-producing areas like Wyoming, West Virginia and Alberta, you can’t get new coal-fired facilities licensed anymore, not even in places like Texas, which still get nearly half their power from coal, let alone in holier-than-thou states like California.

Obama pushing clean coal and green jobs

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama is meeting with governors from coal-producing states, hoping to earn their support for a languishing energy bill and to bolster his image as a leader willing to work with Republicans as well as Democrats.

Obama planned to announce on Wednesday new steps to increase the role of biofuels in powering the nation and to release a report detailing how Washington could increase investments in green technologies, an administration official said. The president was also expected to discuss so-called clean coal technologies, said the official, who spoke ahead of the announcement only on condition of anonymity.

Obama Says Senate May Drop Cap and Trade, Pass Energy-Only Bill

President Obama acknowledged yesterday that the Senate may pass an energy bill this year without the cap-and-trade component he has long put at the center of his environmental agenda.

Oil hovers above $77 on demand hopes

Oil prices continued to rise Wednesday as economic reports suggested demand could improve and the dollar weakened, making crude cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for March delivery was up 27 cents at $77.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract jumped more than $2 on Tuesday to settle at $77.23.

Gasoline Poised to Rise Past $2.19 a Gallon: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Gasoline futures are set to rise past $2.19 a gallon after breaking through resistance at $2, according to a technical analysis by Newedge Group.

The March contract “surged higher, pulverizing resistance,” said Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge USA LLC. “It is positioned to continue higher,” and challenge resistance between $2.05 and $2.10.

U.S. Distillate Supplies Fell Last Week, Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably fell last week as wholesalers prepared for colder weather, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.

Corporate Bond Risk Falls on Greek Deficit Plan: Credit Markets

Elsewhere in credit markets, energy companies are increasing bond sales at the fastest rate since October as investors snap up the notes of companies with rising profits while the overall pace of debt issuance slows.

Demand for oil will peak by 2030 – BP chief

GLOBAL demand for oil will peak within the next two decades, the chief executive of Europe's largest oil company has said.
Tony Hayward of BP said the plateau would be reached between 2020 and 2030 as falling demand from developed countries balanced growing demand from developing nations.

BP said it was the first time Mr Hayward had put a date on peak demand, following a range of predictions from other bodies.

His comments also suggest Mr Hayward now thinks the peak will come earlier than he had previously thought.

Ofgem Considers Gas Regulation to Protect U.K. Supply

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. energy regulator Ofgem recommended “far-reaching” measures to protect energy supplies, including dismantling the liberalized natural-gas market, after the recession cut funds for utility investment.

“The credit crisis is taking a serious munch out of this sector,” Ofgem Chief Executive Officer Alistair Buchanan said today on a conference call. “There are tremendous market pressures on discretionary market spend.”

Falklands oil plans anger Argentina

Argentina has lodged a protest with the UK over London's plans to begin offshore oil exploration off the north coast of the disputed Falkland Islands.

Nigerian militants promise strike on Shell line

LAGOS, Nigeria – The main militant group in the restive Niger Delta says they will attack a Royal Dutch Shell PLC pipeline already hit in recent days by saboteurs.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta issued a statement Tuesday saying they would attack the Trans-Ramos pipeline after it is repaired. The group criticized government officials who blamed the pipeline's rupture Saturday on thieves trying to steal crude oil.

The group says that no thief "breaches pipelines with explosives as was done in this attack."

Statoil to Evaluate Listing Retail and Fuel Business

(Bloomberg) -- Statoil ASA, Norway’s largest oil and gas company, started an evaluation of the ownership of its gas station and transport fuel business that may lead to a stock listing at the end of the year.

UK To Struggle To Meet Green Energy Targets

BRUSSELS/LONDON - Britain could struggle to hit its target of getting 15 percent of its energy from renewable resources within the next decade, according to a UK government report submitted to the European Union.

Interim targets for the next six years will cause even greater problems, causing Britain to fall behind its EU neighbors.

Kenya: Jatropha Farmers Walk on Slippery Ground

As the international oil price rallied towards $150 a barrel in 2008, the developed world turned its attention to idle land in Africa, with numerous European NGOs introducing oil plants like jatropha to farmers saying it could be the continent's next big thing - a likely principal export and an alternative fuel that could improve the speed of industrialisation in a continent with eyes on the middle-income status.

Such was the excitement in Majiwa, a remote village in the outskirts of Bondo town in Nyanza Province when the international NGOs came knocking in 2006.

With the encouragement of Mr Tor Steiner Rafoss, one of the international bio-diesel agents, the villagers formed the Nam Lolwe Jatropha Caucus for the purpose of pooling resources to promote cultivation of the hitherto foreign oil plant. Mr Rafoss donated seeds to start the jatropha project.

Years since, the hope for a better life among the farmers is fading. They are asking about the promised "ready market" for the wonder plant.

Iran says ready to send enriched uranium abroad

TEHRAN (Reuters) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday Iran was ready to send its enriched uranium abroad in exchange for nuclear fuel under a plan the West hopes will stop the material being used for atomic bombs.

The U.N. nuclear agency has brokered a proposed deal under which Iran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, would send its low enriched uranium abroad in exchange for more highly enriched fuel to produce medical isotopes.

"We have no problem sending our enriched uranium abroad," Ahmadinejad told state television.

Senators Warned of Terrorist Attack on U.S. by July

WASHINGTON — America’s top intelligence official told lawmakers on Tuesday that Al Qaeda and its affiliates had made it a high priority to attempt a large-scale attack on American soil within the next six months.

In a Renewable Energy World, Is There an Alternative to Growth?

One of many conservative talking points against climate change of late has been that that environmental campaigners are tree-hugging, humanity-hating Luddites. So they really couldn’t have asked for a better present than the latest liberal think-tank report on climate change: “Growth isn’t possible,” cries the New Economics Foundation, in a 145-page jeremiad that compares humanity to an overweight hamster.

It's Resistance Now Or Never!

The other thing a global economy had to have if it was going to work was a plentiful and cheap supply of oil. If the world is not now on the downside of the Peak Oil curve, it's close enough for government work in the US, China, India, Russia, the EU. Rulers in these developed and developing countries have begun to act along those lines. For instance, the US won't be getting out of the Middle East anytime soon because it is a major source of a dwindling world oil supply. US military presence there has nothing to do with politicians' silly bleatings over "underwear bombers" or terrorism. And for another instance, economic nationalism, in the form of US tariffs on Chinese steel to give one example, is the wave of the future. Globalization cannot withstand the end of free trade or oil-driven trade, but it faces both simultaneously. It will crash and burn as a result.

A US soldier or two, away from the harrowing places they have been sent to secure oil, when given time to consider, have probably wondered why their government has contracted with Blackwater (now Xe)-type mercenaries at 10 times the price to pull duties once assigned to them. It is completely absurd on its face. The product of a hidden agenda is always absurdity. Globalization, which seeks privatization of all things, is that agenda.

Brazil uproar over massive Amazon dam plan

BRASILIA (AFP) – Environmentalists, indigenous groups and British rock star Sting have denounced a government plan to build the world's third largest hydroelectric dam in the Amazon river basin, which they claim will devastate the region.

The government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Monday approved the 11 billion dollar Belo Monte project on the Xingu river that will flood 500 square kilometers (193 square miles) and supply 11 percent of Brazil's electricity.

Learn to save money and cut greenhouse gas?

A team from the University of Oregon’s Climate Leadership Initiative developed and tested the Climate Masters at Home program. It is modeled after Extension’s Master Gardener program and will now be delivered by the OSU Extension Service in Lane County.

“The first class we offered in Lane County helped participants reduce their annual greenhouse gas emissions by more than 20 percent — nearly two tons per person,” said Sarah Mazze, climate education director for UO’s Climate Leadership Initiative. “We believe those results are achievable for anyone taking the course and that means significant savings for people’s household budgets.”

House Ag Chairman Backs Bid to Block EPA Greenhouse Gas Regs

A trio of House lawmakers yesterday introduced a bill to block U.S. EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gases, marking the latest in a string of bipartisan attacks against forthcoming climate rules.

California Sets Up Statewide Network to Monitor Global-Warming Gases

SAN FRANCISCO — California is preparing to introduce the first statewide system of monitoring devices to detect global-warming emissions, installing them on towers throughout the state.

The monitoring network, which is expected to grow, will initially focus on pinpointing the sources and concentrations of methane, a potent contributor to climate change. The California plan is an early example of the kind of system that may be needed in many places as countries develop plans to limit their emissions of greenhouse gases.

Industries sue to void California's low-carbon fuel regulations

The suit by the oil and trucking industries alleges that the rules discriminate against corn ethanol and Canadian crude oil. A state official calls the suit 'shameful.'

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/iDX-2dwezCw/6154

Recent statistics have been published showing that Europe has now installed over 2,000MW of offshore wind capacity, with more than a quarter installed in the past year, and lots more to come in the next few years. I discussed these numbers in more detail here, but wanted to give you here some insights on what these numbers mean on the ground.

Left: Offshore wind installations. Source: EWEA - The European offshore wind industry

key trends and statistics 2009 (PDF) )
Right: Transition pieces for the Belwind offshore wind farm, Zeebrugge harbor, 22 January 2010

I recently visited the port site in Zeebrugge, Belgium, where the foundations for the Belwind offshore wind farm (the financing of which I worked on) were stored before their installation. This is a good opportunity to give you a glimpse of the kind of logistics involved, and what kind of problems can happen (and how they are solved), on offshore wind installations.

Follow me below for a tour of a small bit of Europe's fastest growing heavy industry.

Part of the windpower series.

As a quick reminder, there are 3 main types of foundations for offshore turbines: monopiles, gravity-based, and jackets/tripods.

Source: www.offshorewind.net

Here are gravity-based foundations and tripods (you can see more pictures here: The unexpected weight of hope)

Monopiles have typically been used for smaller turbines and lowers depths, as their size (diameter and thickness) needs to increase with the load to be carried and their cost can become an issue. The price of steel will heavily influence the choice between the technologies when several are possible. In this case, with 3MW turbines in 20m depth, monopiles were the most logical choice.

Foundations include two main parts, the foundation itself (the part that's driven into the subsoil) and the transition piece (the part that's affixed on top of the foundation and carries the turbine tower).

two foundations on the ground
with several transition pieces in the background

The transition piece usually includes the boat landing, access platform and j-tubes (the steel tube that protects the electrical cable going to other turbines and/or the transformer station, it is curved near the ground to allow the cable to go from its underground trench to the turbine, thus its name).

On the left, you can see the bottom part of the j-tube,
while the right picture has the more complex set of j-tubes for the transformer station,
which has several cables going to several "strings" of turbines.
Note the anti-corrosion protection on the j-tubes.

It also plays a vital role in that it corrects any flaws in the verticality of the foundation: turbines require the towers to be within one half degree of perfect verticality in order not to have to bear inappropriate loads, and it is not so easy to hammer 50m long steel columns in the sea ground to such precision; the transition piece is designed to be adjusted to provide the perfect position required for the turbine over the water.

Another aspect which requires a lot of precision is the roundness of the foundation and the transition piece. The two of them must fit together (more on this in a second), and the transition piece needs to be in the exact size for the first part of the turbine tower to be bolted on top of it - tolerances are below a centimeter (the bolts are big ones - a couple centimeters thick, but they need to fit in over the whole diameter of the two parts...) for equipment measured in tens of meters.

The foundations here have a smaller diameter in their top part, in order for the transition piece to be lowered on top of them and around them. The two parts are then grouted together (a special concrete is injected between the two pieces, this is done on site, naturally, and under water).

the narrower top part of the foundation is quite visible on this picture.
Note the steel tubes alongside the transition piece in the foreground;
the j-tubes will be attached to these alongside the foundation part under water.

Some offshore windfarms use a different connection between foundation and transition piece, with the trnasition piece snuggling inside the foundation. One European windfarm has quality issues on the grouting in that configuration, and there are worries that the turbines could slip lower into the foundations (which is not that important) and lose their horizontality (which is a big problem...). with the design here this is less of an issue as the wider diameter below acts as a stop should the grouting fail.

"Ovality" is also an issue for foundations as the transition pieces need to fit on top of them, and it needs to be checked carefully.

oops - ovality

As you can see, the above foundation has a serious problem: it's really not round. In that case, it is not a manufacturing problem: that foundation sank during the transport to site and hit the seabed... The project company, together with the insurance companies, is investigating the best way to deal with this problem: replace it completely, try to improve its roundness by squeezing it back into shape (the giant steel "pinch" for that was being prepared on site when we visited) or, quite possibly, use it as it is (by luck, it is the bottom part which was damaged, ie the part that goes in the sand, so ovality is less of an issue there as long as the vertical penetration in the soil can still be controlled).

The reason the foundation sank is that it was transported to site by floating it - plugs were installed on each end and the foundation could simply be pulled on the water.

the two plugs used to float a foundation,
installed on the next one about to go to site.
One of these is filled with foam, as it needs to be taken off underwater,
when the foundation has been raised vertically,
and the foam makes it float back to the surface to be recovered.

But the design of a plug was found (after a number of trips) to be slightly faulty and water seeped in, leading to the incident. The foundation was recovered, and the design flaw was identified and has now been corrected. Transport of the foundations to the site was of course interrupted during the investigation, but by luck the weather was poor at that time so no work could have been done in that period... The pictures above show the new improved plug system, which includes a more comprehensive set of sensors to warn of any risk of infiltrations...

This is a fairly typical offshore construction incident, in that it was unexpected, hitting a system that had worked fine previously and had not altogether minor consequences. It was a technical problem, to which a technical solution could be found reasonably easily. It had an impact on the schedule, which could be absorbed by the buffers put in place (and indeed in this case did not require more buffers than were required because of bad weather anyway). In terms of financial impact for the project, it will be fairly minor as this can be largely minimized by repairs or covered by insurance. It goes to confirm that the goal cannot be to expect a flawless project, but to have teams which are able to deal with problems as they appear, because they _inevitably_ will appear at some point, and to have a budget and scheduled which include contingencies and are able to withstand such incidents. Resiliency is the key word here...

this is the special piece of equipment used to "grab" foundations
and bring them from their horizontal transport position to the vertical on site.
It was temporarily on site for some repairs/maintenance.

The project is expected to finish installing the foundations and transition pieces in the short future, and move on to the installation of the turbines. These are going to be soon delivered to a harbour site nearby (so, no pictures this time), with completion in the course of this year. The turbines will be erected on their towers on the site inland, and transported as a whole to the site - the erection is expected to attract quite a bit of attention in the area as it will be highly visible.

Editorial Note:

This post was originally published on TOD:Europe on 24 January with a slightly different title.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/JGKWfDOyyCM/6178

Does it make sense to move to a new location because of peak oil? I can think of reasons on both sides of the discussion. I list some ideas below the fold. How do readers feel about this issue?

Some reasons one might want to move:

1. To be closer to family. If times get tough, economically or otherwise, it is can be better to be near kin-folk.

2. To own a piece of arable land in an area with good weather. If one actually plans to operate the farm by oneself, one would need the skills to use the land productively.

3. To be closer to energy sources that are likely to continue. This could be as simple as being near wooded areas. It could also be to be near hydroelectric, or some other form of energy (coal, oil, geothermal, wind turbines, etc.).

4. To leave an area with inadequate water supply. Los Vegas and Phoenix come to mind as examples.

5. To be in a better place for long-term jobs. Different people will have different ideas as to where these locations might be.

6. To be part of a Transition Town. Or perhaps some similar group, that is planning to deal creatively with peak oil issues.

7. To be where public transportation is available. If one feels that the major issue will be a lack of cheap fuel, this might be an option.

8. To leave an area that seems to be seriously overpopulated for its resources. This could be a city or a country.

9. To leave an area where the weather is very severe. This might especially be the case if you believe heating is likely to be a problem in the future.

10. To leave an area where obtaining enough fuel (or electricity) is a problem. I understand this is already an issue in parts of Alaska.

Some reasons not to move

1. Have friends, family, and a job where you are now. It would be impossible to move everyone, and find jobs for everyone, in a new location.

2. Not customary to move. In the USA, we think nothing of people moving to a new state every few years. But in many parts of the world, people customarily stay put. Moving is not really an option.

3. Not welcome in the new area. If the new area is a close-knit community, it may be difficult to make new friends.

4. Not enough money. It costs money to relocate. Buying several acres for a farm, plus equipment, is likely to be prohibitively expensive for most.

5. Devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. The new community may only appear to be better than what you have. Trying to farm without the skills will be very difficult.

6. Can't sell your house. Or the price you would get for it would leave your penniless.

7. Too many sunk investments. If you have insulated your home, added solar hot water, and a garden, it will be hard to replace these elsewhere.

8. Inertia. It takes a lot of work to research a new area, uproot family, and get settled in a new area.

What are readers views on this issue?

Have people tried moving to Transition Towns? What has your experience been?

How about people who have moved to a new area on their own, to garden or farm--what have your experiences been?

I would assume that most people who have thought about the idea of moving have decided to stay put, since making a big move is difficult. In recessionary times, it is especially difficult to move, except to move back in with family or friends. If peak oil is likely to cause a worsening recession going forward (as some of us believe), this may affect the kinds of moves people are willing and able to make.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/IGkiDK9qmcQ/6180

Farewell to the moon

It is a strange moment when you see an once cutting edge technology die. Of course, the common wisdom of our age – the so-called myth of progress – claims it cannot happen. Technologies may be made obsolete, they can turn out to be impasses, but it is unthinkable for a whole avenue of progress to simply close down. That is exactly what has happened, however, when President Obama cancelled the Constellation Program, and that tells a lot about the fate of technology in a energy poor future. . .

This pattern is likely to repeat itself as the decline in net energy available to our society makes keeping an advanced technology more and more difficult. There won't be any technological cliff, no abrupt return to the Middle-Ages. Technologies will just lose momentum as the resources needed to advance them become scarcer and scarcer. They will become more and more restricted socially and geographically even as they become more and more advanced until they are reserved to a tiny elite. They then will fade out of public perception. Manufacturing will cease, for lack of a market, even though the technology itself will continue to be used, as it is the case today for the shuttle.

China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing? (Richard Heinberg)

Silly me. Here I had thought that world leaders would want to keep their nations from collapsing. They must be working hard to prevent currency collapse, financial system collapse, food system collapse, social collapse, environmental collapse, and the onset of general, overwhelming misery—right? But no, that's not what the evidence suggests. Increasingly I am forced to conclude that the object of the game that world leaders are actually playing is not to avoid collapse; it's simply to postpone it a while so as to be the last nation to go down, so yours can have the chance to pick the others' carcasses before it meets the same fate.

I know, that sounds unbearably cynical. And in fact it may not accurately describe the conscious attitudes of leaders of some smaller nations. But for the U.S. and China, arguably the countries most likely to lead the way for the rest of the world, actions speak louder than words.

Peak Oil Supply vs Peak Oil Demand: 2020 vs 2010 (Paul Kedrosky)

We have two instructively conflicting views out today on peak oil supply vs peak oil demand. The estimable folks at TOD peg 2010 as peak supply, with perhaps 89mbpd; while BP’s Tony Hayward gave an interview to BBC Radio 4 today suggesting that peak demand would hit first, by 2020 at around 100mbpd.

Check them both:

* Peak oil demand by 2020 at 100mbpd (BBC)

* Peak oil supply in 2010 at 89mbpd (TOD)

The peak oil crisis: revisiting the electric car (Tom Whipple)

Although the current crop of hybrids certainly runs some of the time on electric motors, the future of electric vehicles are those that plug into the grid and get all, or at least much, of their energy from this source. There is no question that electric vehicles are intrinsically superior to the current combustion engines that have dominated personal transport for the last century. They don't use any, or not as much, petroleum-based fuels. They use energy much more efficiently. They have no emissions. Their performance is as good or better than the internal combustion car, and they are much simpler to maintain. Most places in the developed world already have robust or at least an adequate electrical distribution system for the beginning of the electric age. The last 100 feet to the car, however, will be an expensive-to-overcome problem for many.

Endgame by John Michael Greer

What this means, if I’m right, is that we may have just moved into the endgame of America’s losing battle with the consequences of its own history. For many years now, people in the peak oil scene – and the wider community of those concerned about the future, to be sure – have had, or thought they had, the luxury of ample time to make plans and take action. Every so often books would be written and speeches made claiming that something had to be done right away, while there was still time, but most people took that as the rhetorical flourish it usually was, and went on with their lives in the confident expectation that the crisis was still a long ways off.

We may no longer have that option. If I read the signs correctly, America has finally reached the point where its economy is so deep into overshoot that catabolic collapse is beginning in earnest. If so, a great many of the things most of us in this country have treated as permanent fixtures are likely to go away over the years immediately before us, as the United States transforms itself into a Third World country. The changes involved won’t be sudden, and it seems unlikely that most of them will get much play in the domestic mass media; a decade from now, let’s say, when half the American workforce has no steady work, decaying suburbs have mutated into squalid shantytowns, and domestic insurgencies flare across the south and the mountain West, those who still have access to cable television will no doubt be able to watch talking heads explain how we’re all better off than we were in 2000.

“There is no return to self-sustaining growth” (James K. Galbraith interview)

I have read a fair amount on Peak Oil and I do think that the argument in its favor is qualitatively different from, and more serious than, earlier alarmist warnings about the supply of oil. The peak oil proposition relates to supplies of conventional oil, and it relates to the idea that there is a normal (bell) curve associated with discovery and production over time. That strikes me as a plausible hypothesis, and as one that back in 1956, successfully predicted he peak in conventional oil production in the United States in 1970. So it’s been around for a long time. So, I do think that it’s a proposition which needs to be taken seriously. As to your characterization of the actions and motives of large and powerful interests, I don’t have a theory on that.

The Myth of Self Reliance

Claiming self sufficiency in almost anything insults and ignores the mountain of shoulders we all stand on. US permaculturists are a pretty politically correct crew, and it became obvious to some of us that “self sufficient” was not just impossible, but was a slap in the face to all those whose sweat provides for us, and was another perpetuation of the cowboy ethic that puts the individual at the center of the universe. So the term morphed into “self reliance,” to show that we know we are interdependent, but are choosing to be less reliant on others. At its best, self reliance means developing skills to provide for basic needs, so we can stop supporting unethical and destructive industries. But I see much less need for self-reliant people who can do everything themselves, and much more need for self-reliant communities, where not everyone knows how to weave or farm, but there is clothing and food for all.

There is still a deep prejudice in permaculture, as websites and emails show, that doing it all ourselves, and on our own land, is the most noble path. And insofar as our skills make us less dependent on corporate monopolies, developing the abilities that we think of as self-reliant is worth doing. However, the more we limit our lives to what we can do ourselves, the fewer our opportunities are.

Climate change email scandal shames the university and requires resignations (George Monbiot)

This is a tough time for climate science. The Guardian's new revelations about the hacked emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia might help to explain the university's utter failure to confront its critics. They could also explain why the head of the unit, Phil Jones, blocked freedom of information requests and proposed that material subject to those requests be deleted. He has been spared a criminal investigation only because the time limit for prosecutions has expired.

The emails I read gave me the impression that Phil Jones had something to hide. Now we know what it might have been. The Guardian has discovered that Jones appears to have suppressed data that undermines a paper he published in Nature in 1990. The paper claimed that Chinese weather stations show that local heating caused by urbanisation has very little effect on the temperature record. It now seems that much of the data they used is worthless and the documents required to validate it do not exist.

UN Climate Chief Contends Framework by Global Body Still Best Way Forward

U.N. climate chief de Boer says, despite what he termed several "perceived errors" brought to light in IPCC documents, the basic facts remain the same, still compelling the world to act.

China Edges U.S. in 2009 Wind Installations

At 13,000 megawatts of new wind energy installed, China led all nations in adding wind turbines in 2009, according to the Global Wind Energy Council.

The U.S. installed 9,922 MW worth, followed by Spain at 2,459 MW, Germany at 1,917 MW and India at 1,271 MW.

Kulongoski, Oregon lawmakers seek to scale back energy tax credits

Big wind energy projects no longer need state incentives, Gov. Ted Kulongoski said today, as lawmakers explored a plan to rein in the soaring costs of Oregon's tax breaks for green energy.

At a meeting with newspaper editors from across the state, Kulongoski said the $11 million in state tax credits routinely given to 10 megawatt-plus wind farms has "run its course."

Calif. turbines frozen in Minn. wind

Like a lot of California transplants, 11 newcomers to Minnesota are having a hard time adjusting to our winters.

The refurbished, 115-foot towers had operated on a California wind farm, where they didn't have to worry about cold hydraulic fluid turning to gel and oil lubricants getting too sluggish.

Long delays, poor responses from Westinghouse, Areva:UK regulator

The UK nuclear regulator said Thursday that it is experiencing "longdelays" and "poor quality" responses from Westinghouse and Areva in the safety reviews of their reactor designs, the AP1000 and EPR, respectively.

The HSE had previously raised a "Regulatory Issue," the highest of three levels of concern, on the EPR's instrumentation and control system. That remains unresolved.

In its newest report, HSE said it was "likely to raise" an RI over the safety qualification of the shield building on the AP1000, the outer structure Westinghouse says is designed to contain any radioactive releases after an accident.

Gas Sites Spur Air Fears

The city of Fort Worth, Texas, one of the biggest beneficiaries in the natural-gas boom, is questioning its largely supportive stand of the industry after a study found high levels of hazardous chemicals in the air near production sites.

On Tuesday, Fort Worth's mayor said the city would follow up on the state-sponsored study with its own air-quality tests and could consider rewriting rules that allow drilling in residential neighborhoods.

Administration moves on corn and coal

Administration officials also announced a revamped strategy to put the nation on track to meet the congressional mandate of 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022, in hopes of fixing a government effort that officials admit has fallen short in its attempts to wean cars and trucks away from fossil fuels and move toward ethanol, biodiesel and other crop-based fuels. The nation currently produces about 12 billion gallons of biofuel, mostly corn ethanol, and the federal government projects the country will not meet the 2022 goal.

And Obama issued a presidential memorandum to speed the development of technologies that capture and store the carbon dioxide emissions from coal plants, with a goal of bringing five to 10 commercial-scale projects on line by 2016.

EPA biofuels guidelines could spur production of ethanol from corn

The nation's farmers got a big boost Wednesday when the Obama administration issued new biofuels guidelines that could open the way for large increases in the production of corn-based ethanol.

The Environmental Protection Agency said new data showed that, even after taking into account increased fertilizer and land use, corn-based ethanol can yield significant climate benefits by displacing conventional gasoline or diesel fuel.

The new renewable-fuel standard issued by the EPA drew criticism from some environmentalists as well as oil industry representatives, who accused the Obama administration of catering to farm interests.

Iraqi Officials Lament Failure To Refine More Oil

Iraqi officials say several factors have resulted in the country needing to import some 60 percent of its refined oil despite having huge reserves, RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq reports.

Ali Hassan Ballu, chairman of the parliament's Oil and Gas Committee, told RFE/RL on February 2 that a huge increase in demand from Iraqi consumers along with outdated refineries, a lack of investment, and insurgent attacks on oil resources have forced Iraq to import a majority of its oil by-products.

Russian markets have recovered with the oil price

Since the middle of 2008 the Russian market has tracked the oil price; the rule of thumb that the Russian RTS Index is the oil price times 20 has been the somewhat uninspiring reality. Given that both price earnings (PE) multiples and index earnings are highly oil-price dependent, there were good reasons for this link in a world where oil prices and markets were volatile. But greater oil price stability should encourage investors to look afresh at Russian markets as a high-growth, low-debt story, linked to the Asian boom. Provided oil stays near current levels, we expect the RTS index to end the year at 2,000, up over 30 per cent from today and still 20 per cent below its peak.

Concrete coverups and others at nuclear construction site

“It is incredible what that crazy [supervisor] kept talking about. It was impossible to work with him, but he was responsible for building the reactor”, says Polish builder Zbignew Mulczynski, describing his foreman hired by the French construction company Bouygues.

Olkiluoto 3, Finland’s fifth commercial nuclear reactor, is in its sixth year of construction. The facility, which is being built under the supervision of the French company Areva, was supposed to have been churning out electricity for Finns already in 2009. Now cautious estimates are for a startup in late 2012, and even that might prove to be too optimistic.

Oil Hovers Below $77 Amid Sluggish US Crude Demand

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 3 cents at $76.95 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 25 cents to settle at $76.98 on Wednesday.

Crude has traded in the $70s since touching $84 last month as investors wait for signs of a demand rebound before bidding prices higher. Demand for distillates, such as diesel fuel used for shipping, has remained subdued in the U.S. and Europe.

Norway joins energy grid

The Norwegian Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Terje Riis-Johansen, has signed a political declaration on strengthening the regional cooperation on development of an offshore energy grid in the North Sea region. This means that Norway, although not a member of the EU, now forms the cooperation on an electricity grid in the North Sea together with Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland and the UK.

Dubai Discovers New Oil Field Amid Debt Woes

Dubai announced Thursday the discovery of a new offshore oil field in the Persian Gulf that could boost its economy at a time when the United Arab Emirates' second-largest sheikhdom is struggling with a multibillion-dollar debt pile.

"I can confirm that oil has been discovered and expect production to start within a year," Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the chairman of government-owned Dubai Petroleum Establishment, or DPE, told Zawya Dow Jones, confirming local media reports earlier Thursday that a new offshore oil field had been discovered in the emirate.

Sheik Ahmed, who is also chief executive of Emirates Airline, declined to comment on the size of the find.

Shell Cuts Deeper As Profit Drops On Refining Loss

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) Thursday promised further cost cuts and job losses after it posted a 28.7% fall in adjusted profit for the fourth quarter, as lower oil and gas production and a big loss in refining offset higher crude oil prices.

Chief Executive Peter Voser said Shell's refining and marketing division is enduring the toughest times he has seen in his 25 years at the company.

"We are not assuming that there will be a quick recovery, and the outlook for 2010 is uncertain," Voser said.

Tesla's Roadster Sport saves the electric car

How often do police take your picture just because they like your car? Not very often, presumably. In which case, try driving the latest electric sportscar from Tesla Motors, the Roadster Sport.

Being the first British newspaper journalist behind the wheel of this £87,000 superstar new model – one that has been Anglicised with a right-hand drive – is a strange experience. Driving it around London, people literally stop, stare, gawp and nudge their friends and children.

Alaskan Natural Gas line realities

When Sen. Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico asked if Alaska gas can be competitive, Persily said yes -- provided there's soon a project approved and under way. If markets know Alaska gas is coming, we should be able to sell it. And demand is expected to keep rising, both in the U.S. and abroad.

Conoco's Alaska profits drop

Conoco Phillips' profits from its Alaska oil production dropped last year but stood out as the biggest single contributor to the company's global oil production income, according to new financial statements.

Honolulu rail plan gets $55M in Federal Transit Authority budget

The Federal Transit Administration gave Honolulu a $55 million vote of confidence yesterday in the city's planned commuter rail line from East Kapolei to Ala Moana.

The support helps build momentum for the rail project just days after Gov. Linda Lingle raised concerns about whether the city could afford the estimated $5.35 billion price tag.

City officials have been hoping the FTA will contribute $1.55 billion toward building the line, and yesterday FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff said they can count on it. The FTA plans to sign an agreement before October 2011 to provide the money, Rogoff said.

CNPC projects crude import rise

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) expects China's crude oil imports to increase 9.1% from a year earlier to 212 million tonnes in 2010, or 4.24 million barrels per day (bpd), a company report showed.

Victoria confirms Cooper shut ins

Australia’s Victoria Petroleum has confirmed that the Growler, Snatcher and Mirage oil fields on the northern Cooper basin in South Australia have been shut in as heavy rains have made the roads in the area impassable.

Boston Harbour cleared for Yemen LNG

The United States will receive its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from Yemen this month over the objections of Massachusetts officials who have said the vessels may be targets for terrorists.

40 billion RUB for shelf exploration

Russia will spend about 40 billion RUB on exploration works at the country’s ocean shelf by year 2020, Minister of Natural Resources Yuri Trutnev said. In 2009, shelf exploration dropped following the financial crisis.

Total forced to invoke force majeure after swordfish attack on oil pipelineJoin our fan community today.

Swordfish punctured part of an oil loading pipe in Angola, causing a three-day delay to tanker shipments of Girassol crude, traders said yesterday. French oil company Total SA, which operates the crude stream, declared force majeure on shipments, but lifted it on Monday. In general, force majeure frees an operator from supply obligations due to extraordinary circumstances. "It was caused because of swordfish. Now the swordfish have passed, so the force majeure has been lifted," said one trader, who buys the crude on a regular basis.

Indian Petrol, LPG may cost more

New Delhi: Consumers will almost certainly have to pay more for fuel from next week as all pieces fell into place on Tuesday for raising prices of cooking gas and liquid petro-fuels.

The committee on petrol pricing, headed by former Planning Commission member Kirit Parikh, made out a strong case for removing subsidies on petrol and diesel and reducing them for cooking gas and kerosene.

The recommendations include imposition of an additional excise duty of Rs80,000 per diesel car to recover higher subsidy provided to the fuel.

India to face gas crisis if Iran, Turkmenistan gas pipeline is scrapped

New Delhi: India could face ``an acute shortage’’ of natural gas if proposed pipeline from Iran and Turkmenistan are scrapped due to deteriorating relations with Pakistan, according to an Assocham study. As political tension with Pakistan heightens, disrupting gas pipeline talks, clean energy option for Indian economy can become all the more challenging with demand and supply gap widening at 5.7 per cent. Energy hungry India needed Iran- Pakistan- India and Turkmenistan- Afghanistan- Pakistan-India pipelines as indigenous production target of 42.28 billion cubic meter for current fiscal was likely to be missed, Assocham claimed. “Scrapping two proposed international gas pipelines involving Pakistan could aggravate already grim gas supplies.

Gas Flows Again To Russia, While Discontent Simmers

Natural gas may be flowing again from Turkmenistan to Russia, but the two countries' pricing dispute is not over, analysts are predicting.

Turkmen gas exports to Russia resumed January 9 after a nearly nine-month hiatus, due to a pricing dispute. Under the Turkmen-Russian settlement, the Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom will only buy 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually compared to 50 bcm in previous years, and will pay in the region of USD 250 per thousand cubic meters (tcm), Russian news sources reported.

Investment Dollars Flow to Green Energy Start-Ups

In the third quarter of 2009, clean energy received 19% of venture capital investment in the U.S., second only to biotechnology, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association.

"There are multiple drivers," said Neil S. Suslak, managing partner of Braemar Energy Ventures. Among them: a desire to cut greenhouse gas emissions, upgrade aging power systems and find domestic sources of energy.

Chavez turns to Cubans for help with energy crisis

President Hugo Chavez has turned to his friends in Cuba for help in tackling Venezuela's energy crisis, drawing criticism Wednesday from opponents who say that the communist-led island is notorious for its own electricity woes.

The socialist leader announced that Cuban Vice President Ramiro Valdes had arrived on Tuesday to head a Cuban team advising Venezuela on its efforts to reduce energy consumption.

Obama pulls plug on Yucca

Energy Secretary Steven Chu said the Obama administration will seek to immediately suspend licensing for the Yucca Mountain repository and within 30 days withdraw completely the bid to build a nuclear waste repository in Nevada.

The actions, coupled with a new White House budget that essentially zeroes out federal support for the site, means the end could be near on more than two decades of debate over storing radioactive spent nuclear fuel a few hours drive from Las Vegas.

Ofgem: energy bills will be 'unaffordable' unless £200bn spent, watchdog warns

Families face "unaffordable" energy bills and power cuts unless radical action is taken to improve the crumbling state of Britain's power stations and pipelines, a report has warned.

The dire state of Britain's energy market has been laid bare in an alarming report by Ofgem, the industry regulator.

The country is too reliant on ageing coal-fired power stations, does not have enough nuclear power stations to fill the gap, is only able to store enough gas to cover a few days' supply and is forced to pump or ship in gas from around the world during cold snaps.

Energy regulator warns of power blackouts and renationalisation

Britain’s energy regulator yesterday warned of power blackouts and spiralling consumer prices and raised the prospect of partial renationalisation of the industry.

In a damning report, Ofgem says Britain’s power industry is in a dire state and in desperate need of investment. The regulator raised the prospect of direct government intervention that would wind back the clock on 20 years of deregulation.

British Gas to cut bills by 9% for 7.5m homes

Britain’s largest domestic energy supplier is expected to announce plans today to reduce its gas prices by about 9 per cent from February 19.

The cut, which will extend to about 7.5 million households on British Gas’s standard tariff, follows steep falls in the wholesale price of gas since 2008 and is the first of its kind by one of the UK’s “big six” energy suppliers since 2007. It could open the floodgates to reductions from rivals E.ON, EDF, ScottishPower, Scottish and Southern Energy and RWE npower.

Crude Falls on Weak U.S. Demand

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed demand falling 2% from a year earlier in the four weeks ended Jan. 29. Demand has yet to bounce back from year-ago levels, despite months of slow improvement in economic conditions and now with some of the worst weeks of last year's recession as a basis for comparison.

Obama pushes energy plan that GOP may support

Looking for a political and policy victory, President Barack Obama on Wednesday pushed energy proposals designed to attract allies and opponents alike, calling for increased ethanol production and new technology to limit pollution from the use of coal.

In his meeting with the governors, Obama also announced a new task force to study ways to increase the use of coal in meeting the nation's energy needs without increasing the pollution that contributes to global warming.

New Tumult Roils a Battered Sudan

A key issue between the rival sides is oil, most of which is produced in the south. Sudan is heavily dependent on oil revenue. Under the peace pact, the two sides share the oil revenue from the southern fields, but that deal has to be renegotiated next year when the agreement expires. . .

The conflict, coupled with a drought, has worsened the humanitarian crisis in southern Sudan. This year 4.3 million people—about half the region's population—are in need of food aid, up from one million last year, according to the United Nations.

U.K. Eyes Energy Reforms as Regulator Warns on Future Supply

The U.K.'s deregulated energy market, the most liberalized in Europe, should be reined in so the country can attract the billions of pounds in investment necessary to ensure an adequate power supply and meet tough climate-change targets, the country's energy regulator said Wednesday.

A new report from Ofgem, which regulates the gas and electricity market in England, Scotland and Wales, portends what could be a significant shift in U.K. energy policy. It said the country's energy-deregulation policy has delivered choice and price competition to consumers, but hasn't provided enough incentive for new investments. Utilities operating in the U.K. need to invest £200 billion ($320 billion) over the next 10 to 15 years to replace retiring nuclear and coal power plants with new and costly low-carbon generation, the regulator said.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/fIfch9_hBrI/6169

Mr. Gabrielli, the CEO of Petrobras, gave a presentation in December 2009 in which he shows world oil capacity, including biofuels, peaking in 2010 due to oil capacity additions from new projects being unable to offset world oil decline rates.

Gabrielli states in his presentation that the world needs oil volumes the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates.

This is a stronger statement than the one he gave in January 2009 in an interview with Business Week when he said the following.

According to the company's projections, production from existing fields will fall from a little over 80 million barrels a day to maybe half of that even if new techniques are used to slow their rate of decline. So just keeping global production flat is going to require lots of new fields and requires the world to replace one Saudi Arabia per three years.

Gabrielli is clearly concerned about declining future world oil production. His statements are now in alignment with those of other oil company executives including Sadad al-Husseini, former Aramco executive, who states that world oil production is on a peak plateau, and Total's CEO, Christophe de Margerie who doesn't see global oil production ever exceeding 89 million barrels per day (mbd). World oil production in December 2009 was only slightly lower at 86 mbd.

Gabrielli shows world oil capacity peaking in 2010 as shown in the translated version of his chart below. He shows historical world oil production to 2008. Next, he applies a decline rate of 5% per year to existing production represented by the lower light blue area. He then forecasts capacity additions from sanctioned projects estimated from Wood MacKenzie's Global Oil Supply Tool. These oil capacity additions are in four categories: OPEC new projects, OPEC expansion projects, non-OPEC new projects and non-OPEC expansion projects. In 2010 the biggest contributor is OPEC expansion projects which includes about 1.3 mbd from Khurais and 0.8 mbd from Khursaniyah. These additions include both crude oil and natural gas liquids and are sourced from Saudi Arabia's official statements which lack independent verification.

He also shows three demand scenarios ranging from low demand to high demand. For the BAU scenario, the required new capacity, in addition to sanctioned project capacities, is about 29 mbd in 2020. Unsanctioned projects from Brazil and Iraq should be able to provide some of this capacity but other capacity additions will be needed to meet demand. Biofuels can also help but there will probably not be enough new oil capacity additions to meet demand in 2020.

It is important to note that Gabrielli's capacity additions exclude additions from unsanctioned projects and from oil yet to be discovered. Thus many Iraq projects and Brazilian Santos basin projects would be excluded. Iraq might produce another 8 mbd by 2020 according to recent estimates by BP's CEO. Brazil's production is forecast by Petrobras to increase by about 2 mbd by 2020. Thus, additions from non sanctioned projects from Iraq and Brazil might add another 10 mbd capacity by 2020. However, this still leaves a required lower capacity addition of 19 to 24 mbd in 2020 to come from other sources. This capacity addition is equivalent to production from about two Saudi Arabias which is an enormous challenge.

Gabrielli's observed decline rate appears to be about 5% per year and he applies it to the entire liquids production in 2008. Part of the liquids production, such as ethanol and Canada oil sands, is increasing rather than declining. The use of separate decline rates for each component of liquids production would be better, but the peak oil capacity year of 2010 would probably not change. Instead, the forecast production curve decline profile would be slightly different.

Fig 1 - World Oil Capacity and Demand to 2030 - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands, natural gas liquids, biofuels and refinery processing gains)

On another slide, Gabrielli plots cumulative decline in existing fields against time. Consequently, the world needs one Saudi Arabia every two years just to keep production constant. Fortunately, new oil capacity from sanctioned projects can offset some of cumulative decline of 30 mbd in 2015. However, the chart above still shows a gap of over 5 mbd which needs to be filled by projects yet to be sanctioned or development of undiscovered oil. If this gap cannot be filled then demand cannot be met and prices will increase to reduce demand down to supply.

Fig 2 - One Saudi Arabia Needed Every Two Years - click to enlarge

Gabrielli also shows few new large discoveries being made recently in the chart below. However, these discoveries can have significant lag periods before production reaches meaningful levels. Petrobras' recent discovery at Tupi may be about 5 billion barrels of oil and gas, but production is expected to grow slowly with capacity increasing to 100,000 barrels per day possibly by the end of this year. This capacity is planned to remain constant until 2012 as part of the Tupi pilot project. If full commerciality is declared, then Tupi might reach 1 mbd by 2022. Gabrielli also shows the large Kashagan discovery in 2000 which was supposed to start production in 2005, but the earliest start date is now 2013.

Additional constraints on world oil production are weaknesses in the production, refining and logistics systems. In addition, Gabrielli points out that refineries need to be matched to the type of oil being produced. Recently, world oil production is becoming heavier and more sour which requires suitable refineries. The construction of these refineries can take several years. Limitations of known reservoirs are an additional constraint as many existing fields are very old and cannot produce more oil easily. Mexico's Cantarell field is in decline and Kuwait's Burgan field has passed peak production.

Fig 3 - Recent Large World Oil Discoveries - click to enlarge

In October 2009, Gabrielli gave a different presentation which showed a forecast of world oil demand based on the IEA WEO 2008 and the EIA IEO 2009 shown below. Note that the additional capacities required for 2020 and 2030 are larger than the ranges given in his December 2009 presentation. For example, in 2020, Fig 1 shows additional required capacity of 29 to 34 mbd while Fig 4 shows required capacity of 42 to 51 mbd. This difference is due to Fig 4 excluding sanctioned project additions, whereas Fig 1 includes sanctioned project additions as sourced from Wood MacKenzie. Gabrielli expresses concern about future oil supply as he states in the slide below that world oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth.

Fig 4 - World Oil Demand to 2030 - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas liquids)

Another source of capacity addition data is Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects. If an annual decline rate of 4.5% is assumed for existing production then the chart below also shows 2010 as peak oil capacity, excluding biofuels and processing gains. The blue line represents the decline for existing production. The oil production in 2030 in the chart below is just over 40 mbd which is higher than Gabrielli's estimate from Fig 1 above. This is due mainly to Gabrielli using a higher annual decline rate of 5% and the Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects data including additional projects which are highly likely to be sanctioned.

Fig 5 - World Oil Capacity to 2030 based on Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Data - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas liquids)

The capacity addition data from Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects can also be plotted from 2003 to 2020 as shown in the chart below. Additions from yet to be sanctioned projects and yet to be found oil have also been added. The bulk of these additions are estimated to come from Iraq, Brazil deepwater, Russia, Saudi Arabia, USA deepwater and some West African deepwater. The text in the chart indicates that world oil production has passed peak. In addition, capacity additions in 2010 and 2011 should be only slightly less than the decline of existing production. However, an oil supply crunch is shown for 2012/13 as new capacity additions in those years are less than natural global decline from existing fields. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA has also stated that an oil supply crunch could occur by 2014. One of the reasons for this crunch is that many projects were delayed when oil prices fell to under $US40 per barrel in late 2008.

Gabrielli says that the world needs the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years just to keep production constant by offsetting natural oil decline rates. In 2008, Saudi Arabia produced 9.3 mbd of crude oil which is also represented by Gabrielli's red line in Fig 2 above. For the two years 2008/09, the chart below shows capacity additions of 9.2 mbd which is just less than one Saudi Arabia. If biofuel additions are also included, then the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia of capacity was added in 2008/09. However, it will be a big challenge to keep on adding a Saudi Arabia equivalent capacity every two years. 2010/11 capacity additions, including biofuels, will be less than one Saudi Arabia and in 2012/13, additions will be only about one half of a Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the IEA's World Energy Outlook has stated that decline rates are accelerating which means that in the future more than one Saudi Arabia equivalent capacity would be needed every two years to offset world oil decline rates.

Fig 6 - World Oil Capacity Additions to 2020 based on Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Data - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas liquids)

Gabrielli's concerns about peak oil capacity in 2010 and future declining world oil capacity should be taken seriously. In Fig 1 above, he shows that by 2012/13 the world oil capacity will only just meet world demand, based on Wood MacKenzie's data, highlighting the risk of a potential oil supply crunch. If Wikipedia Oil Megaproject data are used then peak oil capacity is also indicated in 2010 as well as an an oil supply crunch in 2012/13. The IEA's Fatih Birol has also stated that an oil supply crunch is likely to occur by 2014. In other words, the world does not have enough future Saudi Arabia equivalent capacity additions to stop world oil production from declining, causing an inevitable supply crunch within the next few years.

A special thanks to Oil Drum contributors Luis de Sousa for translating Gabrielli's slides (Figs 1 to 3) from Portuguese to English and to Sam Foucher for updating the world oil supply forecast chart (Fig 5) based on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject database.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/Ffxr-jJ7Vhk/3060-a-safe-w

The media coverage of the health dangers of BPA has really reached a fever-pitch these days and, thanks to that coverage, many companies are removing it from their products.  While that is wonderful, there are still many BPA-containing plastics out there and 2.7 million tons of it being made every year.  How do we make sure all that plastic is disposed of safely?

Scientists have come up with a way that they believe decomposes polycarbonate plastic without releasing BPA.  The scientists, Mukesh Doble and Trishul Artham, pretreated polycarbonate with ultraviolet light and heat and then exposed it to three types of fungi known for their pollutant remidiation abilities.

After 12 months, the pretreated plastic had substantially decomposed without releasing any BPA, while the control plastic that was not pretreated before being exposed to the fungi showed almost no decomposition.

via Science Daily

 

 

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/NY_ReBI2hZQ/3059-smaller-

While the BLM is facing a virtual clog of large, desert-based solar project proposals, smaller, distributed solar projects are popping up at an impressive rate.  In just the past few weeks, 1,300 MW worth of these projects have been announced or approved, which could equal about the same energy output of a big nuclear power plant.

The larger, more ambitious solar power plans have many environmental and land-use hurdles to clear, while these smaller plans, set to occupy commercial and residential rooftops, areas near electrical substations and urban areas, don't have the same obstacles in their way.  Also, the smaller projects are cheaper, meaning more utilities can afford to implement them as they're scrambling to meet renewable energy mandates.

Arno Harris, the CEO of Recurrent Energy, a company that has signed a contract with Southern California Edison for 50 MW of small-scale solar, summed it up like this:

“Distributed solar is faster on permitting, on environmental issues and interconnection to the grid.  It offers a safety valve for utilities who don’t want to put all their eggs in one basket.”

The projects, anywhere from 50 to 500 MW each, are mainly concentrated in California, though New York Power Authority is planning 100 MW installation around the state as well.

via Green Inc.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/k35CiWRaK4A/6182

WORLD FOREX: Euro Sinks As Oil Plunges On Drop In Risk Demand

The euro fell against the dollar midday Friday in New York as a slump in oil prices further erased demand for riskier assets at a time of growing investor anxiety over deteriorating finances of some European countries.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, jumped to its highest level since July, while the euro sank to a fresh eight-month low against the dollar, with the common currency dipping briefly below $1.36.

The sharp decline in oil prices is feeding additional pressure on the currency markets, said Marc Chandler, global head of foreign exchange at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "It's a vicious cycle that hasn't been broken."

Oil fell nearly 4%, while silver and gold prices also dropped.

Marcellus Coalition Posts Facts on Flowback Water Treatment

"The industry currently treats or recycles all of its flowback water. Recycling accounts for approximately 60 percent of the water used to complete Marcellus Shale wells, with greater percentages predicted for the future. There are more than a dozen approved water treatment facilities available to treat flowback water, with plans for additional capacity in the future.

"Companies are working with international water quality experts and are funding research and development projects to develop mobile and permanent treatment technologies such as evaporation and crystallization. These efforts will enhance the Commonwealth's overall water treatment capabilities, while bringing more commerce into Pennsylvania. We're also researching and developing deep underground injection well technology, which is a proven, safe disposal method in other regions of the country.

"Claims about elevated levels of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) in the Monongahela River from natural gas development have been refuted by studies that attribute a minimal amount of the total TDS levels to Marcellus Shale drilling activity.

Micro-inverters vs. Central Inverters: Is There a Clear Winner? (podcast)

In recent years, the solar industry has seen radical change in the inverter space. On the utility side, inverters have been getting bigger in order to accommodate massive, multi-megawatt projects. On the residential side, they've been getting smaller and more adaptable, opening up the market for "plug and play" systems. This has created more choices for consumers and installers. But it also raises the question: Is one technology better than the other?

PV Analysts: Cautious Optimism for 2010

The global economy, however, has thrown many of these incentives into a tailspin. Spain, a fast growing market, has reduced its feed-in tariff (FIT) by 30%, which has resulted in lower expectations for growth. The German government is considering a steeper cut to FITs for solar energy, which could also result in lower growth. And in the U.S., many states are already burdened by the recession and plan to lower tax credits; we think the federal government will extend its tax credit to eight years, which will provide some relief. The Administration is also proposing a $3.4 billion stimulus package to improve the grids.

The reduction in incentives takes away from the growth of solar PV systems. We think that the industry will continue to grow in 2010, but perhaps not as fast as in previous years. Incentives help to expand PV installations, which, in turn, reduce cost. PV has come a long way, and we feel that its benefits, especially in today's energy environment, will overcome the loss of incentives and, in the long run, continue traditional growth. When recovery is more evident, some incentives may return.

Electricity 2.0: Unlocking the Power of the Open Energy Network (OEN)

In a major new policy paper, Green Project Director Michael Moynihan argues that America must upgrade to Electricity 2.0, an open, distributed network, to unlock the potential of clean technology and unleash a renewable revolution.

Read the full paper (.pdf)

(Economist)

A refreshing dose of honesty: Maria Cantwell and the politics of global warming

Of all the bills that would put a price on carbon, cap-and-dividend seems the most promising. (A carbon tax would be best of all, but has no chance of passing.) Ms Cantwell has a Republican co-sponsor, Susan Collins of Maine, and says she is hearing positive noises from a few other Republicans, such as Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The most attractive thing about the bill is that it is honest. To discourage the use of dirty energy, it says, it has to be more expensive. To make up for that, here’s a thousand bucks.

This challenges the conventional wisdom in Washington, DC, that the only way to pass a global-warming bill is to disguise what’s in it. Leading Democrats try to sell cap-and-trade as a way to create jobs and wean America from its addiction to foreign oil. (It’s about “jobs, jobs, jobs and jobs,” said Nancy Pelosi, the speaker, last year.) Focus groups say this message ought to resonate. Frank Luntz, a pollster, released a study last month showing that voters are unswayed by melting ice caps but will support an energy bill that sticks it to the Saudis and creates American jobs.

Peak oil in Davos: Oh yes it is, oh no it isn’t. (Kjell Aleklett)

The fact that nobody from ASPO was invited to discuss energy security in Davos shows that they are not interested in anyone bearing unpleasant news. The fact that the journal Energy Policy accepted our paper “Peak Of The Oil Age” for publication last November could have been a good reason for an invitation but one never came.

The bearer of unpleasant news became, instead, Thierry Desmarest, the chairperson for Total. In his speech he said that oil production would never exceed 95 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and in his press release he clarified his view by saying, “peak oil is still a problem; it will be reached in ‘about 10 years’, but not today”. Total has previously mentioned 100 Mb/d and that they are now saying 95 Mb/d shows that they are approaching the conclusion that my Ph.D. student Fredrik Robelius presented in his thesis. That scenario had a maximal production of 93 Mb/d in 2018. The requirement for that level of production was that production from 7 giant oil fields in Iraq would commence immediately. The fact that this has been delayed makes it all the more difficult to reach that production level.

Crack Spreads Widen as Refineries Close in the U.S. (Update3)

“We expect the U.S., Europe and Japan to continue running at low utilization rates as demand is not picking up yet,” said Brynjar Erik Bustnes, an analyst at JPMorgan in Hong Kong. “This will leave the Asian refiners capable of maintaining a higher run rate and also enjoying slightly better margins.”

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s biggest crude producer, is exporting about 1 million barrels a day to China, more than to the U.S., Chief Executive Officer Khalid al-Falih said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland.

“Asia is really the only one with all the economies pulling out of the recession and with industrial activity increasing,” said Vivek Mathur, an analyst focusing on Asian oil and petrochemicals at Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield, Massachusetts-based energy research firm. “The overarching view is that this increasing economic activity is bolstering crack spreads.”

How Nigeria is sabotaging the global oil market

Nigeria's oil industry is about to implode. . .

It's not just Chevron. Royal Dutch Shell dominated oil production in Nigeria for 50 years. But since 2008, bandits have destroyed 50,000 barrels per day of Shell's production. Now, it's had enough. The company will put 10 onshore fields up for sale, worth between $4 billion and $5 billion.

Since Shell's announcement, rumors came out that its partners, French oil company Total and Italian oil company ENI, would soon follow. Both companies cite problems in Nigeria for their poor performance in 2009.

Shell and Total currently produce around 10% of Nigeria's oil and gas. If they leave, there will be a vacuum of talent and expertise. We saw the same thing happen in Mexico, Venezuela, and Ecuador. When the giant Western oil companies leave, all the experts go with them.

With those companies gone, Nigerian oil production will collapse before the paint dries on the new company logos.

OIL FUTURES: Oil Plunges 5% On Debt Fears, U.S. Jobs Data

Crude oil futures plunged 5% Thursday as jitters over a rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims and euro-zone debt led investors to flee riskier assets and move into the safe-haven of the dollar.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled $3.84, or 5%, lower, at $73.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was the lowest settlement since Jan. 29 and the biggest one-day loss in crude since July 29.

Peak oil never sleeps

Even while so many of us are wringing our hands over the Copenhagen Collapse, the dwindling chances of getting anything even remotely resembling the action we need from China, India, or the US on CO2 emissions, and all the other flavors of angst currently suffusing climate chaos land, we’re still using roughly 85 million barrels of oil every day, worldwide. You can do our own math to convert that into gallons per various time units (at 42 gallons/barrel, of course) and scare yourself spitless without any help from me.[1]

But that whole awful peak oil thing is still really, really far away, like in the science fictional year of 2015, right? Well, it seems yet another notable source is saying nope, we’re there:

World Oil Capacity to Peak in 2010 Says Petrobras CEO:

Oil, gas output rise in Colorado

Colorado oil and gas production is on the rise, despite a global recession and tighter state rules on drilling.

Natural-gas production rose by 4.4 percent last year to 1.6 trillion cubic feet. That's according to the Colorado Oil and Gas conservation commission.

Tony Hayward: BP's straight-talking chief on evolution not revolution

Tar sands are part of a wider diversity of supply of energy sources that the world is going to require, Hayward argues, dismissing the idea that the growing pressure on the US military not to use these imports will bear fruit. By 2015 BP could be providing 100,000-200,000 barrels a day from this source for which the company is preparing two US refineries specially to process the crude.

"The likelihood of the US army not using a secure local supply of energy is quite low … Canadian heavy oil is going to be a very important part of America's energy," he argues.

He rejects the suggestion that exploiting tar sands contradicts the "beyond petroleum" mantra, seeing it instead as just another fuel source on top of its wind, solar and biofuel investments.

Obama's Nuclear Giveaway

But as Mother Jones has reported, there will be no nuclear renaissance unless the US taxpayer covers the tab. While the country's 104 nuclear power plants currently produce nearly 20 percent of American electricity, growth has flatlined in the past three decades. Even as public opinion toward nuclear power has warmed, projected construction costs for new plants have soared, with a single reactor now estimated to cost as much as $12 billion. In fact, the outlook for nuclear plants looks so dire that even Wall Street banks have balked at financing them unless the government underwrites the deal.

Of course, that means the government would also assume almost all the risk. The chances of default on the government-backed loans are "very high—well above 50 percent," according to the Congressional Budget Office. "If they go belly-up, taxpayers get to pay it," said Kevin Kamps, radioactive waste specialist at Beyond Nuclear. "With hundreds of billions in bailouts already on the shoulders of US taxpayers, the country cannot afford to move forward with a program that could easily become the black hole for hundreds of billions more," wrote the heads of the National Taxpayers Union, Taxpayers for Common Sense, the George C. Marshall Institute, and the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in a letter to the administration [PDF] this week.

Obama's nuclear power policy: a study in contradictions?

Obama wants to triple public financing for new nuclear power plants, even as he nixes funds for storing commercial radioactive waste. The policy may be calculated to win votes for climate change legislation, but critics say it's not 'coherent' and carries new security risks.

The Department of Energy recently proposed $36 billion in new federal loan guarantees on top of $18.5 billion already budgeted – for a total of $54.5 billion. That's enough to help fund six or seven new power plants.

It's a full-speed nuclear-power gambit that many say is largely a bid to win votes from pro-nuclear senators for legislation to address climate change. But his strategy is generating a firestorm of opposition, amid warnings that much more is at stake than a political calculus.

From environmentalists to fiscal hawks to nuclear security experts, the Obama plan is sparking near-open revolt. The nuclear-power expansion is not accompanied by any plan to store commercial radioactive waste, they note, and includes a new push by the Department of Energy into spent-fuel reprocessing and small "pocket nuke" reactor research, which they see as a proliferation risk. The Obama nuclear policy is at cross purposes to his nonproliferation goals, they add, and might even cement his energy legacy as the president who revived a moribund industry that hadn't built a nuclear plant in decades because of the financial, environmental, and security risks involved.

Energy Interests Fretting Over Obama's Budget

But Obama’s budget also calls for imposing roughly $40 billion in new and additional taxes on the U.S. energy sector over a 10-year timeframe. The bulk of the windfall would come from eliminating two accounting practices that have been in place since the first two decades of the 1900s: the percentage depletion of oil and gas wells and the expensing of intangible drilling costs.

Critics contend these changes would disproportionately impact independent oil and gas companies, which drill 90 percent of domestic wells and produce 82 percent of U.S. natural gas. “The elimination of these two accounting procedures would overwhelmingly impact smaller independent oil and gas explorers, not big oil,” says U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-New Orleans. “The result would be putting thousands more Americans out of work at a time when we should be creating, not eliminating, jobs. That is poor policy.”

High Hopes for Clean-Energy Jobs

The U.S. could add hundreds of thousands of jobs if Congress requires that part of the nation's electricity be derived from renewable sources, according to a study released Thursday.

The study, by Navigant Consulting, said a renewable-energy standard requiring utilities to produce between 20% and 25% of their energy from wind, solar and other renewable sources would create between 191,000 and 274,000 jobs.

More than half would be high-value manufacturing jobs that could help the U.S. boost exports and develop an advantage in technological innovation, said Navigant, a business consultancy that conducted the study for the RES Alliance for Jobs, a consortium of renewable-energy companies.

Absent such a federal mandate, the study found, many states would lose renewable-energy jobs in coming years and some industries, such as biomass, could collapse altogether.

Renewables 61% Of New EU Power Generation Capacity In 2009

Renewable?energy made up the bulk of new power generation capacity added in the European Union last year, the European Wind Energy Association, or EWEA, said Wednesday.

Renewables accounted for 61% of new electricity generating capacity in 2009. Of the total new capacity, 39% was from wind?power and 16% was from photovoltaic solar power, EWEA said.

Spending Backlog Vexes Energy Chief

Energy Secretary Steven Chu expressed frustration Thursday that most of the roughly $37 billion in stimulus money Congress gave his agency last year had yet to be spent, but said the agency could manage a new round of funding for clean-energy projects as part of an expected jobs bill.

At a hearing of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Dr. Chu said his agency had handed out only a fraction of the authorized stimulus funds. According to the agency's Web site, only $2.1 billion has been spent.

The disbursement has been slowed partly by the complexity of the review process the department must follow when determining which projects are eligible for support, he said.

Lawmakers propose region's highest renewable energy requirements

Gov. Bill Ritter (D-Colo.), lawmakers and renewable energy supporters introduced a new proposal on Thursday for energy standards.

The legislation would require large utility companies to generate nearly one-third of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2020.

Nigerian minister threatens to sack officials if fuel crisis persists

Nigeria's oil minister Thursday threatened to sack officials in his ministry if they failed to end an acute fuel shortage in a week.

Officials have attributed the fuel scarcity to the suspension of fuel imports by private companies late last year, the poor performance of the nation's four refineries, the sabotage of oil pipelines by militants and hoarding by marketers.

But analysts observe that official corruption and mismanagement in the industry were behind the scarcity.

Schlumberger warns drilling services shortage could emerge again

Schlumberger Ltd., the world's largest oilfield-services provider, said the pressure on costs from crude producers has passed and that a surge in oil prices may lead to shortages in drilling services.

Talks with producers to cut prices “are behind us,” Chief Executive Officer Andrew Gould said today in an interview in Oslo. “The whole industry worked very hard in 2009 to bring down costs and they've been reasonably successful. The danger is that if oil prices accelerate then in the supply industry, certain shortages will appear quite quickly.”

Argentina oil and gas output falls

Argentina's oil and gas production fell last year compared with the previous year, marking the third consecutive decline since 2006.

McClendon says shale tougher overseas

Large oil companies such as US supermajor ExxonMobil snapping up shale-gas acreage overseas will likely find it hard to develop that land due to constraints such as infrastructure availability, the head of US shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy said today

Bangladesh seeks $7 bln foreign investment for power

Bangladesh is seeking $7 billion of foreign investment to boost its electricity generation, a shortage of which has slowed the country's economic development, a government adviser said on Thursday.

Due to technical constraints and shortfalls of natural gas supply, Bangladesh can produce only around a maximum of 3,700 MW of electricity while peak hour demand reaches more than 5,500 MW, officials said.

Electricity demand has been growing by 7.50 percent annually since 1990.

Around 40 percent of Bangladesh's 150 million population has access to electricity, one of the lowest levels in the world.

Climate Change: The SEC Weighs In (Or Not)

OK, so right off the bat these "climate change" and "global warming" thingies get the finger-wiggling treatment. Why? Well Schapiro is wary of opining as to whether the world's climate is changing. Also, she's troubled about opining as to the pace of the climate change that she has no opinion about.

Moreover, she also seems worked up over the prospect of opining about the causes of the non-opined pace of the non-opined "climate change" or "global warming." For good measure, Schapiro gets in one last shot about how nothing the SEC does should be construed as weighing in on "global warming" or "climate change."

Wind power growth limited by radar conflicts

The most well-known obstacles to installing wind turbines are complaints over their visual impact and the potential for bird and bat deaths. But conflict with radar systems have derailed over 9,000 megawatts worth of wind capacity--nearly as much as was installed in the U.S. last year.

"We're not going to put up more wind (in many locations) without conflict because radar systems and wind systems love exactly the same terrain...which is where the wind is at," said Gary Seifert, a program manager for renewable energy technologies at the Idaho National Laboratories, during a presentation at the RETECH conference here on Thursday. "It's really causing a challenge to meeting long-term goals."

The problem is wind farms create "cones of silence" above them, making it difficult for primary radar systems to detect airplanes when they fly over them, Seifert explained. Planes with transponders can communicate with air traffic control towers, but smaller planes don't all have transponders.

Sales of the Smart Fortwo Plummet

When it comes to plunging car sales, all eyes have been on Chrysler. Car sales at the company now managed by Fiat dropped 44 percent in 2009 compared with 2008.

Smart USA doesn’t get the same attention, but its sales were just as bad. Now they’re getting worse.

The diminutive coupe, which is sold by Daimler AG, saw a 40 percent annual sales drop last year. And for the first month of 2010, sales have plunged off a cliff.

Rio Tinto hires new China boss to improve ties

Global miner Rio Tinto hired Ian Bauert, a fluent Mandarin speaker, to head its China business on Friday in an effort to improve relations with its largest customer after the arrest of a top executive there.

Hawaii's gasoline price average drops by a penny to $3.42

The statewide average for a gallon of regular was $3.42.

Honolulu's average price remained unchanged at $3.32 but 11 cents higher than last month and $1.04 higher than at this time last year.

Hilo's average was $3.47, two cents less than last week, but 17 cents higher than last month and $1 higher than at the same time last year.

Ukraine pays off January Russian gas bill

KIEV, Feb. 4 (Xinhua) -- Ukraine has paid off its January Russian gas bill, the country's state oil and gas company Naftogaz said on Thursday.

"We have paid in full for 2.55 billion cubic metres on time," Naftogaz spokesman Valentyn Zemlyansky told a news conference.

Gazprom to extend Polish contract on Europe gas transit till 2045

Gazprom said on Thursday it will extend a contract on gas supplies to Western Europe via Poland until 2045, while gas supplies to Poland may be increased to 11 billion cubic meters from this year.

China's New Silk Road geo-strategy in Asia

Old Silk Road routes offer China the prospect of growing relief from reliance on sea-based energy imports leaving the Strait of Hormuz (22 miles wide and patrolled by the U.S. Fifth Fleet) and the Malacca Straits (1.6 miles wide and patrolled by the U.S. Seventh Fleet.) For example, there are pipelines linking Kazakhstan (with 3% of the world’s proven oil reserves) to Chinese refineries. There are gas pipelines stretching from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and ending in China.

Gazprom’s Q3 Results Boost Shares

Gazprom reported Monday that its profit for the first nine months of last year declined to just two-thirds of what it earned in the same period of 2008, despite a spectacular recovery in sales that began in the summer.

The gas export monopoly's profit decreased to 479.3 billion rubles ($15.77 billion) in the period ended Sept. 30, a 36 percent drop year on year, it said in a statement.

Volumes of gas sold outside of the former Soviet Union and on the local market declined by 11 percent each in the nine months. They plunged by 50 percent in the former Soviet republics.

Gazprom Sees Asia as Rising Client

Gazprom expects its shipments to Asia eventually to reach the same level as those to Europe, where it has a quarter of the market, chief executive Alexei Miller said.

State-run Gazprom in 2012 will begin building a pipeline that will stretch from the Yakutia region of Siberia through Khabarovsk on the northeastern tip of China to the port of Vladivostok on the Sea of Japan, Miller said in a statement late Wednesday.

Construction of that link will follow one now being built from Sakhalin Island west to the far eastern mainland through Khabarovsk and on to Vladivostok, Miller said.

Gazprom consortium hit by weak demand

An oil consortium headed by Russia’s Gazprom is considering postponing its vast Shtokman liquefied natural gas project in the Russian Arctic due to depressed global demand for gas.

Russian Oil Flow To Kazakhstan Restricted

A person at a Russian oil company, who requested anonymity, said the dispute between Russia and Kazakhstan resembles the spat with Belarus, when oil supplies were reduced during negotiations over customs duties on Russian crude. The curtailment in oil supplies to Kazakhstan, however, are less vital because Kazakhstan has enough oil to feed its refineries and exports its own hydrocarbons, the person said.

Novatek steps on the gas

Russian gas output reached an all-time monthly high of 63.95 Bcm last month, driven by Novatek and other non-state producers. The country is looking to regain its status as the world's top gas producer after falling behind the US last year.

Novatek, Total To Develop Field In Russia's Yamal Region

Russian natural gas producer Novatek (NVTK.RS) and French oil and gas company Total SA (TOT) have created a joint venture for exploration and development of the Termokarstovoye gas condensate field in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region, Russia's Arctic region, Novatek said Thursday.

Total's share in Novatek's subsidiary, which holds the exploration and production license for the field, will increase to a total of 49% by the end of 2010, Novatek said. The Termokarstovoye field's reserves are estimated at 396.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, consisting of 47.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 10.3 million tons of liquid hydrocarbons according to Russian reserve classification.

Uzbekistan Worried About Tajik Power Plant's Effect On 'Frail' Environment

Uzbekistan's Prime Minister has sent a letter to his Tajik counterpart warning Dushanbe of potential damage by the Roghun power plant to Central Asia's "frail environmental balance.”

In the letter published in Uzbekistan's Russian-language "Pravda Vostoka" newspaper today, Shavkat Mirziyaev said that in a region facing water shortages and prone to earthquakes, the giant power plant project could bring catastrophic consequences.

U.S. Envoy For Eurasian Energy Explains Goals, Strategy For Region

Ambassador Richard Morningstar told a group at the Center for American Progress on January 28 that President Barack Obama's government is pursuing three fundamental goals. First and foremost, he said, U.S. policy is to encourage the development of new oil and natural gas resources across the Eurasian region while simultaneously promoting alternative technologies and the efficient use of all energy resources.

British Gas starts energy price war as bills fall for 8 million

Britain’s big energy companies are on the brink of a price war after British Gas cut its prices by 7 per cent.

The reduction, which will benefit about 8 million households, is expected to start a battle for customers with E.ON and RWE npower thought to be among the companies considering a cut as early as next week.

Energy prices: What does the future hold?

Ofgem has warned that energy bills will rise above £2,000 by 2020, while British Gas has just announced a 7% cut. What is going on in the energy markets?

Petrol: the biggest headache for Shell and BP

Refining – where crude oil is converted into the substance that powers vehicles – is sharply depressing overall earnings. Royal Dutch Shell, which on Thursday revealed the worst results in the energy reporting season, with a $427m loss in its refining arm, is far from alone. BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron have all been unveiling losses or severely depleted profits in their refining divisions.

How I cut my energy bill by £528

Kara Gammell has saved hundreds of pounds by making her household more efficient. Here's how.

Oslo considering major tunnel project

The Oslo City Council will now consider building a major joint tunnel which will lead all railway and subway lines under the centre of the capital. This was decided at the Council's meeting on Wednesday.

Statoil may sell off filling stations

Statoil's board of directors has unanimously decided to evaluate a new ownership structure for the group's energy and retail business, including the company's petrol and service stations.

Old mine may house garbage-burning plant

A controversial waste treatment project once slated for Liulitun, Haidian district, Beijing may be recycled and built instead in an isolated mountainous area far from populated parts of the city, a Beijing News report said yesterday.

Schweitzer, other governors discuss 'clean energy' push with president

Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who joined nine other governors Wednesday at a White House meeting with the president on energy issues, said governors from both parties recognize the need to advance "clean energy" in America.

"There was very little disagreement that we need to move forward on clean energy in this country, but we need to do it in a way that doesn't create costs for consumers and industry," said Schweitzer.

Qaim given briefing on coal-based power plant

Karachi: A nine-members delegation of a coal mining group of Korea called on Chief Minister Sindh Syed Qaim Ali Shah here at Chief Minister House and gave him a briefing on development of Thar coal and generation electricity from it. It said 167 million people would benefit form the proposed project of coal power plant. It also briefed on the conventional systems of hydel-electrical power, thermal power and nuclear power, and non-conventional systems of solar power, wind power, tidal power and biogas power.?They presented a project of setting up 1200megawatt mine-mouth thermal power plant for Thar coal.

Yanukovych to help Russia build pipelines bypassing Ukraine, double gas transit

Kyiv should persuade Moscow to nearly double Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine, Ukrainian presidential frontrunner Victor Yanukovych said on Jan. 27 while ruling out the sale of transit pipelines.

Bangladesh Govt to Invite Tenders for 9 Power Plants This Month

Dhaka , Feb 2: Under a mega plan to bring the country to a zero load shedding level from nagging crisis, the Bangladesh government is likely to invite tenders within the current month to set up more than nine power plants having total capacity of about 4,000 MW.

Australia Newcastle coal port cuts export quotas

Australia Newcastle port, the world's largest coal export terminal, said it has cut miners' export quota by 1.7 million tonnes to clear logjams and that it would spend A$670 million ($594.5 million) to expand capacity.

Traders said the cut in exports would likely affect some shipments that were due to sail to China, and may encourage affected buyers to source for alternative winter supplies.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/q08WarVNvjk/6181

This is a guest post by George Mobus, who is an Associate Professor of Computing and Software Systems at the University of Washington Tacoma.

Civilizations grow in complexity given the right circumstances. And all too often they end up collapsing. History is replete with examples. Joseph Tainter, among others, has examined collapse from the standpoint of decreasing marginal return on investment in increasing complexity, which he posits is the most common factor in collapsed societies. The key question one must ask is: What critical circumstance (if there is one factor above all others) enables a society to grow in complexity in the first place? If we find an answer to that question we may also find what causes the decrease in marginal returns as complexity increases. This is certainly a growing concern for our modern civilizations. I advance a systems theoretical and principled thesis, below, that puts the increased flow of energy as the key enabler of increases in complexity. And I examine what we might expect from declines in that flow rate when sources are depleted.

Joseph A. Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies

If you haven't read Tainter's 1988 (some would say prescient) book, The Collapse of Complex Societies (Cambridge University Press), or if you haven't read it recently, you would do well to do so at your earliest convenience. [Also see a speech he gave the 94th Annual Meeting of Ecological Society of America, posted on The Oil Drum, here.]

I had the great good fortune to meet Joe at the Second Annual Biophysical Economics Meeting in Syracuse, NY this last October. He came to give the plenary talk in which he connected energy return on energy investment with his theory of how evolving complexity in societies figures into collapses, when they occur. I then stopped over in Logan Utah on my way home to Washington state and spent some quality time talking with him that evening over a single malt scotch (a label I had never heard of before - very smokey!)

So I thought I'd dig out my copy of Collapse when I got home and re-read it. I remembered not being quite as interested in the details of Roman and Mayan societies in the way an archeologist would be (Joe's credentials) and had probably skimmed too much. His lecture at Syracuse piqued my interest now that I know a bit more about what seems to be going on in our modern societies in the post-peak oil world. Much to my chagrin I couldn't find my copy. Actually I vaguely remembered having borrowed it from the library (I wasn't rich enough in 1988 to have much of a personal library), so I quickly got it from Amazon, along with a few other classics on the topic, and read it again. This time with more informed, if not fresher eyes.

Joe's thesis boils down to this: Societies evolve greater organizational and technical complexity to solve social problems that arise due to external forces or population pressures or overuse of natural resources, etc., and at some point, the marginal beneficial returns (problems solved) begin to decline leading to lowered margins of error for dealing with possible catastrophic impacts. Societies collapse when increasing complexity no longer has a payoff and something else bad happens.

As I read this anew I thought about other areas that I have been developing some expertise in, namely the evolution of complexity in dynamical systems (from general systems science) under the influence of the flow of high potential energy. I felt inspired to write more about that since I think there are some general principles that we could use to decipher what is going on in the world today and have some sense of what to expect from tomorrow.

Energy Flow and the Evolution of Internal Complexity

The term complexity has become somewhat problematic over the last several decades because of the difficulty researchers and authors have had in coming to some kind of consensus on its meaning. Of course it is like pornography, right? We know it when we see it. I have attempted to provide a more concrete treatment of the subjects of complexity and its evolution elsewhere, so I won't go into that in detail here. Readers who want a more precise definition should take a look at those works. For our purposes a brief summary follows.

There are really two kinds of complexity, potential and realized. Potential complexity comes from the a priori existence in a semi-closed system of myriad raw components, both in absolute numbers and in types. Types, here, refers to components that have different personalities or interaction potentials with other component types. The more different types and interaction potentials there are, the more realized complexity might obtain within the boundaries of the system.

Realized complexity is what most of us think about when we come across something that already has organization and appears to be functioning through myriad actual interactions among the components. When we see multiple kinds of arrangements of components that appear to be regular and strongly interacting, we apprehend the system as complex. We can view a system from outside, say when we run into a complex piece of machinery (perhaps looking inside to see the workings), or from the inside, as when we try to grasp the complex nature of our own society. Either way, realized complexity is characterized by organization, stability of interactions, many kinds of interactions and often recognizable subsystems, which may be, themselves, complex. A good example of a complex system with complex subsystems is a living cell, especially a protist such as a Paramecium.

A central question of the evolution of organization asks: How does an unorganized collection of components (potential complexity) actually develop over time into an organized, functioning (realized complexity) system?

This question lies at the heart of the still somewhat mysterious (though not mystical) issue of the origin of life on Earth. Life emerged from non-living components perhaps some 2 to 3 billion years ago. And once the basic formula of complex metabolism in cells developed, life proceeded to evolve further, eventually producing simple multi-cellular organisms, and then, in a much shorter time frame, to us.

Harold Morowitz (Energy Flow in Biology, 1968, Academic Press), following closely on the heels of Erwin Schrödinger, who famously asked the seminal question, "What is life?", provided an important insight into the nature of evolution of organization in semi-closed systems. He demonstrated that when energy of the right kind flows from a source of high potential, through the system, and exits at a lower potential (heat), that work is accomplished within the component milieu and structures obtain. He coined the phrase made famous by Stuart Brand on the back cover of the Last Whole Earth Catalog, below the famous picture of the Earth taken from the moon: "The flow of energy through a system acts to organize that system."

Morowitz was working on molecular organization in an attempt to be more precise about the origin of that organization in natural processes. He detailed quite nicely the way in which photons of the right frequency could enter at one point in a semi-closed system (being closed to material inputs or outputs), be absorbed by simple molecular or atomic components in which electrons were thus excited and new bonding arrangements could occur. Energy that ended up in thermal modes would tend to excite molecules at the entry end of the system and cause material cycling (convection) to organize the molecules dynamically. Thus both structure and motion ensue from the influx of the right photons. He went on to analyze things like the information flow due to changes in structure and function, important to our understanding of life.

As any good disciplinarian scientist, he felt uncomfortable with too much generalization from his basic insights (personal communication). But I am not constrained by good disciplinarian constraints since I like to find generalizations that do seem to apply across disciplinary boundaries. In this case I argue that the energy flow principle is, indeed, quite general and a good explanation for the evolution of organization and complexity in all systems, not just molecular in nature.

When Morowitz says "acts to organize a system" I would amend this to "enables the organization of a system to emerge". The energy flow doesn't so much cause a specific organization to evolve as it is simply a necessary condition for any organization to emerge. In fact any given system of some nominal potential complexity might evolve in any number of ways toward higher realized complexity. The energy flow supplies the needed potential for work to be accomplished. Here, by work, I mean all manner of reconfiguration of matter as new associations and movements are enacted. Work is what energy enables, but exactly what work depends on what materials are in the neighborhood at the same time the energy is available.

For that we have to rely on something that resembles chance but in fact is itself inherently organized, and that is chaos. Ilya Prigogine, at about the same time that Morowitz was wrestling with the internal mechanics of organization evolution, had an equally useful insight into the nature of systems in which there was no apparent organization of components, but tended to evolve organization over time. He called these (what I have labelled potentially complex) systems as chaotic. On close examination one finds that such systems are not truly random. They actually do have some kind of structure, like a waterfall; the pathway of the falling water, in bulk, is readily predicted, or the boundaries of the waterfall are observable, but the fate of any given molecule of water as it approaches the fall is completely unpredictable. Turbulence in a stream is another example of chaotic systems. If you ever stare at a rushing stream you will see that eddies appear quite regularly at certain points due to the underlying rock formations. But you can't predict with any accuracy when an eddy will appear (or even exactly where within some general boundary).

Chaos in a semi-closed system imposes some kind of overarching organization, generally limiting the kinds of interactions that can happen. It is inherent in Morowitz's convective cycles; organization of flows and possible sorting (say by weight differences) of components lead to higher probabilities of certain interactions over just any arbitrary ones, a concept touched on by Dan Dennett in Darwin's Dangerous Idea, (1995, Simon & Schuster) which he called "forced moves". Thus, the argument that order (or I prefer organization) can emerge from chaos (the concept led Prigogine to get a Nobel Prize in Physics!)

The key, however, remains the flow of the right kinds and amounts of energy through the system. Solar influx through the Earth's atmosphere and hydrosphere power a large majority of organizing work on the surface of the planet, with contributions from geothermal and tidal forces. And the Earth went from a hot ball with poisonous gasses swirling around it to the blue green dot that graced the back of the Last Whole Earth Catalog.

Realized complexity obtains from the on-going pumping of energy flows through the system. Over a sufficiently long time, and assuming there is a steady-state flow of those energies, components tend to organize and reorganize generating increasing complexity at a given level. Evolution is the emergence of some new subsystem, at that level, followed by active selection for or against that subsystem by the rest of the whole system. After a while, the fittest subsystems come to dominate even while chaotic variations still give rise to new variants. Occasionally a new variant is 'more' fit under the general circumstances and it survives. When these subsystems are, themselves, capable of replication, as a living system is, then the newer variety will displace the older ones.

And then, at times, with the continuing flow of energy in which there are energies not completely used for work processes (they just pass through as it were), the subsystems will have a tendency to discover yet new interactions with one another that give rise to a new level of organization. This is exactly the case when single celled organisms evolved into multi-cellular ones. New econiches are just organizational gaps where new energies are made available and a new subsystem can exploit those energies to develop new structures. In one sense we see complexity at a given level go down when this happens. Individual cells in a multi-cellular organism can begin to specialize, thus not needing to maintain all of the internal metabolic mechanisms for doing everything themselves. They can get some of what they need from nearby cells that have specialized to produce that particular product. Cells became simpler while organisms became more complex. This process gives rise to hierarchies of organization. In general, the net realized complexity of the whole goes up. More energies that formerly may have escaped untransformed by work to heat are now used for new work. Some of those previously unused energies end up captured in new structures (conformational energy) as the whole system develops greater realized complexity.

Multi-cellular organisms continued to evolve up the phylogenetic tree of life and way out on one of the newest branches of that tree sits an ape that has a spectacular brain and something we call second order consciousness. They are conscious of being conscious. They have abstract communications both spoken and written. And they start to exploit all kinds of previously inaccessible energies to supplement their normal biological food. They evolve complex social interactions because they have an increasing wealth of energy from these external sources. The potential complexity for these beasts is staggering. And they proceeded to evolve as many as they could given the chaotic constraints on their clustering.

A new level of organization appeared as societies. Culture captures the degree of complexity, but look at what happens for individuals. Just as cells in multi-cellular organisms could become 'simpler' by specializing, individual humans could simplify by specializing in the work that they performed. As they did so the total realized complexity of society increased but the life of an individual tended to become less complex. At least for a while.

This brings us full circle to Joe Tainter's point. At any given flow rate of energy available to do work, a social system reaches the maximum complexity that solves problems for the system as a whole.

In Morowitz's model, we need to ask, what happens when you reduce the flow of energy through an organized system? The reason this question is crucial is that that is exactly what is happening to our human societies. The peak of oil production represents something even more pernicious to society, the peak of net energy to do useful work in our economy (see: "Economic Dynamics and the Real Danger"). What happens to Morowitz's systems when energy flow declines? The simple answer is they go back to chaos.

Tainter documents how societies that reach the limits of marginal returns on increased complexity and then something bad happens. They collapse. What about a world in which we have 'artificially' increased the flow of energy by using fossil fuels (far above real-time solar influx) so that we can evolve much higher orders of realized complexity than can be sustained once those fossil fuels start to decline? Have we not reached our point of maximum complexity where every investment in more complexity brings less actual return in benefits? And might it not be due to the fact that we have reach some kind of maximum flow of energy?

That is the problem we face as a global civilization. We are running short on oil and as a consequence we are going to find it harder to extract other energy and mineral resources. Our net energy is already in decline and that is at the root of the global economic problems we are seeing. The simple truth is that you cannot have a growing economy when the basis of all economic wealth production is in decline. You cannot make up the difference with efficiency gains (and in reality there really aren't many actual efficiency gains to be made). The scope of energy flow due to fossil sunlight is just unbelievably huge. Neither will we make up the difference with alternative, sustainable sources (like real-time solar influx) because we can't build out the scale of infrastructure that would be required in any reasonable time frame.

We can only start simplifying our societies and giving up the many discretionary expenditures of energy that we currently enjoy without much thought. We can learn to once again live on real-time solar influx via our food raising systems. And even then we are talking about an ability to support only a small fraction of the current population. Ironically the simplification of society involves the increasing complexity of individual lives. What this means in practice is that each individual must start to become more of a generalist in terms of the functions that support life. Everyone will have to become a food grower! Believe it or not that isn't simple! Knowing how to grow your own nutrients is actually quite complicated and will demand a whole new set of cognitive skills.

I suppose it will be hard to see the similarities in the dynamics of molecules, or cells, and those of human societies for many people. It is a very abstract viewpoint. It might seem inhuman! But if there really is a correspondence, a general law of complexity evolution based on energy flow then we might be wise to pay attention.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/h8x4TvxC59Q/3061-vote-for

It's that time of year again!  The Greener Gadgets Design Competition has started and 18 cool, eco-friendly gadget ideas are waiting for your votes.

This year is the third year for the competition and the Greener Gadgets Conference, which is being held on February 25 in New York City, and I must say, this is the best crop of designs yet.  Some of the highlights include a kinetic-energy-harvesting rocking horse that fuels flashlights or nightlights called Rocco, a USB-outfitted, wall-mounted charger that is powered by indoor light called the Illumi Charger and a system of turbine-run highway lighting that would be powered by the air turbulence from passing cars.

Your votes will narrow down the pool to a handful of finalists that will be judged at the conference.  You have until February 12 to cast your vote for the best and most revolutionary idea.  Click here to vote and learn more about the conference.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/9F9hsnVZttY/6176

Major auto companies are now close to bringing their first electric vehicles onto the market. But in many cases these new vehicles are as big and heavy as their gasoline powered brethren, and consequently burn just as much energy even though they take it from batteries rather than a fuel tank. In the greater scheme of things, I’m not convinced that helps us very much.

I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).

Here is the full story from Team Trev's website (quoted with permission).

Trev, the idea

Conventional cars use a lot of energy. Try pushing one. The larger and heavier the car, the harder it is to move and the more energy it uses. Typically, less than 15% of the energy that reaches the wheels is used to move the occupants; the rest is used to move the machine.

Most of the time, we use our cars to travel short distances in slow city traffic with only one or two people in the car. But we do it in cars that are capable of carrying four or five people across a continent at 100 km/h or more, and towing a boat or caravan at the same time.

We need something new. Something appropriate for city mobility.

Staff and students at the University of South Australia have designed and built such a car, which we call Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).

Automotive companies are developing electric versions of conventional cars. But they are still large, heavy cars, and still use a lot of energy.

Rather than take a conventional car and try to make it clean, our approach has been to take a clean, low energy vehicle — a solar racing car — and make it practical. Solar racing cars can cross a continent at 100 km/h (60mph) powered only by sunlight, so it should not be too hard to build a clean, efficient vehicle that can transport someone to work and back each day.

Specifications

* two comfortable seats, since more than 90% of urban trips have only one or two people in the car;

* enough luggage space for at least two overnight bags;

* 300 kg (660 lb) mass (because using a 2.5 tonne vehicle for commuting is ridiculous);

* energy-efficient tyres, brakes and suspension;

* a clean, quiet and efficient electric drive system;

* compliance with road safety and worthiness regulations;

* good performance, with a top speed of 120 km/h; and

* 150 km of city driving before the car must be recharged.

Most importantly, it uses less than 1/5 of the energy required by a conventional car. And it doesn't look too bad either.

Features

* The tandem seating layout gives good aerodynamics, good balance, and good vision.

* The acrylic canopy gives the driver an unimpeded view of the road.

* The canopy and door open on the kerb side of the car.

* The electric motor gives smooth, quiet acceleration from 0–100 km/h (60mph) in under 10 seconds.

* A composite tub chassis, with foam and plastic body panels, gives a total car mass of 300 kg.

* A 45 kg lithium ion polymer battery gives over 150km of city driving.

* Low-energy tyres on low-mass alloy wheels give low rolling resistance.

* The single rear drive wheel simplifies the suspension, and allows a simple, efficient transmission.

Performance

In October 2007 we drove Trev from Darwin to Adelaide in the Greenfleet Technology Class of the World Solar Challenge. For most of the journey, we drove 80 - 120 km at speeds of 80 - 90 km/h before stopping to recharge from a generator. We completed the 3020 km (1900 mile) trip in just over six days.

Our energy consumption was 6.2 kWh/100 km. Electricity costs about AUD $0.18 per kWh. The cost of recharging Trev is 1.1 cents per kilometre [Approx 1.6 US cents per mile]. The entire 3000+ km journey cost us $33 of electricity.

It makes petrol (gasoline) look silly.

Trev, the team

Team Trev is a motley collection of EV enthusiasts, innovators, tinkers and travellers. We’re volunteering together to take Trev to the world.

The current challenge is the Zero Race - carry two people 30,000 km around the world, powered by renewable energy, starting in June 2010. To achieve this, we need to:

* place a larger battery beneath the floor, to give a range of 250 km

* improve the brakes and suspension

* make the back seat more comfortable

* get the car registered.

The key design concepts will not change.

Trev. Simple, efficient, clean.

There's a lot to like about Trev, and with batteries just a fraction of the size, it wouldn't have the price tag of a Chevy Volt either. Or if you can cope with the elements, the electric bicycle end of the spectrum will suit everybody's budget and still cover a fair bit of ground. Today's monsters could be kept in the garage, or shared with neighbouring houses, for the larger shopping and holiday trips where the larger capacity is actually required.

So for just 20% of your current energy use, Trev can keep you clean and dry while completing your commuting journey as quick as the roads allow. Now these smaller vehicles won't solve congestion, although they will help, so I'm also an advocate for a new mindset in city and suburban planning and long-term investment in public transport. But changing infrastructure is a slow response to peak oil.

Once fuel costs start to become a significant factor in people's driving decisions, a car like Trev that is super cheap to run will look pretty attractive. Given the simplicity and much lower resource use of a micro electric vehicle, it's not hard to imagine the Asian manufacturing industry churning these out once we realise the need for them.

Thanks Team Trev!

You can find contact details for Team Trev at teamtrev.com

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/Pi2jk-P5Sko/6187

OIL FUTURES: Oil Drops Steeply, Breaking Key Support Level

Crude oil futures fell sharply for the second day in a row Friday after breaking through a key support level that traders had been watching for a sign of whether the energy markets would continue to trend lower. The drop in crude prices spurred losses for other commodities, which worsened as the U.S. dollar gained strength.

Crude futures, which had been little changed throughout the morning after the release of anxiously awaited U.S. jobs data, fell below their January low of $72.43, which triggered further selling that pushed the benchmark March contract below $70 for the first time since mid December. Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled down 2.7% at $71.19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange closed down 3.8% at $69.36 a barrel.

"Instead of the news making the price, it's the price making the news," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. Evans said it was clear that crude's drop to a session low of $69.50 was triggered by a glut of pre-programmed orders to sell oil if it broke significantly below the January low support level.

When oil or any other financial asset marks a particular low price repeatedly, traders refer to it as a "support level," because it indicates that there are lots of buyers willing to buy at that level, often using pre-programmed trading strategies. But when an asset falls through a key support level - as oil did Friday - it indicates many buyers are no longer interested in buying at that price, triggering a sharp drop to the next support level down. For oil, this is around $70 a barrel.

Gazprom to delay Shtokman gas project three years

State-run Russian energy giant Gazprom will delay development of the giant Shtokman gas field in northern Russia by three years because of "changes in the market situation," shareholders said Friday.

Pipeline gas production is expected to start in 2016 while liquified natural gas production should begin in 2017, after final investment decisions in 2011, a statement issued by shareholders said.

Gazprom's original plan called for production, estimated at 23.7 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year, to begin in 2013.

Cnooc To Sign $2.5 Bln Deal With Tullow - Sources

Cnooc Ltd. (CEO) has agreed to buy a stake in the Ugandan oil assets of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) for US$2.5 billion, people with direct knowledge of the deal told Dow Jones Newswires on Friday.

The deal--due to be signed later Friday in London--strengthens the foothold of Chinese companies in East Africa's energy sector. Cnooc is exploring for crude oil in neighboring Kenya, while China National Petroleum Corp. and China Petrochemical Corp. have major producing oil assets in Sudan.

Endless Oil: Peak Production vs. Oil Price

"Endless Oil” is the title of a piece in BusinessWeek (Jan, 18, 2010) that was written by Stanley Reed. It was interesting for me because I remember a time when BusinessWeek would not have published a tissue of nonsense like that article. Perhaps even more important, I was surprised when I saw the names of some of the persons whose opinions were cited. All I can say is that my dream tonight might involve encountering them in a seminar room or conference; then they would find out the true state of the world oil economy.

Let me begin with the narrative that all of my energy economics students must know perfectly after my second lecture. The Russian oil output is probably close to peaking, and in any event the director of one of the largest Russian firms says that his country will never produce more than 10 million barrels per day (= 10mb/d). This number may be slightly wrong, but it happens to be one-tenth of the amount (= 100 mb/d) that the present CEO of Total (the French oil major) says is the absolute maximum for world production. (Another Total executive recently suggested 95 mb/d).

Iran May Be Near Uranium Deal

Iran might be close to a deal to have uranium enriched abroad, the country’s foreign minister said Friday. But he proposed a condition that might not be acceptable to the United States and other governments that have been trying to negotiate a compromise over Iran’s nuclear program.

Under such an agreement, Iran would send low-enriched uranium to the West and receive higher-grade uranium in return for use in a reactor that would produce isotopes for medical use.

Baker Hughes: US Oil, Gas Rig Count Up 18 To 1,335 This Week

The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas in the U.S. climbed this week as producers continued to ramp up output amid higher prices.

The number of oil?and?gas?rigs rose to 1,335, up 18 rigs from the previous week, according to data from oil-field?services?company?Baker?Hughes?Inc. (BHI). The number of gas rigs was 878, an increase of 17 rigs from last week, while the oil rig?count was 445, an increase of one rig. The number of miscellaneous rigs was unchanged at 12 rigs.

FACTBOX-Nigerian crude oil production outages

Nigeria has at least 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil shut in, more than 25 percent of its capacity, mainly due to sabotage attacks on oil facilities, according to oil companies and industry sources.

Petrobras CEO: Peak Oil Production is Now

On Thursday, the energy blog TheOilDrum.com reported on a December 2009 presentation by Petrobras CEO Jose Sergio Gabrielli in which he estimated that world oil production would peak this year. Gabrielli, head of Brazil’s national oil company, joined the ranks of other international oil honchos, including former Aramco executive Sadad al-Husseini and Total’s CEO Christophe de Margerie, in stating that the level of global oil production cannot keep pace with growing demand. The logical result of this trend is oil scarcity that will lead to quickly rising crude prices in the next few years.

An Interesting Presentation by Petrobras CEO

Sergio Gabrielli gave a presentation in December of last year on the topic of future oil production. His work showed a peak in 2010, the same year M. Hubert predicted it. Whether peak oil is real remains to be seen but this is the first big company I have seen predicting it before 2017 (BP's prediction), although Chevron has made noises about everything relating to peak oil, except the topic itself (to my knowledge their official prediction is 2020 or 2030).

In any case, I can't get a copy of the presentation in english and the best I can do is the writeup of what he said on the oil drum, so if you want to read the most dire predictions and implications of his talk, you can here. Personally, I am more interested in the charts, which are below (these are ones used in his presentation but translated to english):

The Quiet Energy Revolution

Two monumental shifts in the world of energy are underway right now: one technological, the other financial. They will change the way we power our lives (especially our cars), provide a real measure of energy security, and help curb greenhouse gas emissions. Neither shift has anything to do with the turn to a green renewable energy economy promised by President Obama. Physics ensures that will never happen, no matter how much wishful thinking (and government subsidy) is applied. Sorry, greens, carbon-based energy will continue to dominate our energy future, not windmills or solar panels.

The first profound shift was made possible by a little-noticed technological breakthrough in the last three years that has changed the way we extract natural gas. . .

The chief obstacle to developing a natural gas infrastructure capable of supplying service stations and highway rest stops is regulatory. If that is removed—and here we do need government action—we could expect to see trucks, buses, and cars running on natural gas in a relatively short period of time. The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would be considerable.

Banks Lured By ‘Sexy’ Solar, Wind Energy Projects

About 30 banks including BNP Paribas SA and Rabobank Nederland NV are being lured back into financing “sexy” U.S. renewable energy projects following an $80 billion government investment in the industry, a project manager said.

Debt financing may return to the 2008 level of about $6 billion in 2010, after falling to $3.2 billion last year, as banks lend more to wind and solar energy projects in the U.S., said Bruno Mejean, a managing director in New York at Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale AG, a state-owned German lender.

U.S. refiners brace for Mid-Atlantic blizzard

U.S. oil refiners were activating hazardous weather contingency plans at their East Coast refineries on Friday as a paralyzing major snowstorm took aim at the Mid-Atlantic region.

"Our Paulsboro refinery is making preparations, but has not reported any impacts to production," said Bill Day, a spokesman for leading refiner Valero Energy Corp. (VLO.N).

Valero's 195,000 barrel per day Paulsboro plant in New Jersey was among regional refineries potentially in the storm's cross hairs.

Tesoro CEO says expects more refinery closures

Tesoro Corp (TSO.N) Chairman and Chief Executive Bruce Smith said on Wednesday he expected that more U.S. refineries will close in 2010 and may include plants operated by major oil companies.

"I think you will see more closures," Smith said in a webcast of a presentation to the Credit Suisse Energy Conference in Vail, Colorado. "I think we'll even see some majors."

SEC Issues Guidance On Companies' Climate-Change Disclosures

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has provided public companies with interpretive guidance on existing SEC disclosure requirements as they apply to business or legal developments relating to the issue of climate change.

Specifically, the SEC's interpretative guidance highlights the following areas as examples of where climate change may trigger disclosure requirements:

- Impact of legislation and regulation. . .

- Impact of international accords. . .

- Indirect consequences of regulation or business trends. . .

Climate scepticism 'on the rise', BBC poll shows

The number of British people who are sceptical about climate change is rising, a poll for BBC News suggests.

Ballot measure targets Calif. climate-change law

Supporters of an effort to suspend California's landmark greenhouse gas law are now able to collect signatures to get a measure on the statewide ballot, officials said.

The measure championed by Republican state Assemblyman Dan Logue would suspend the state law that set increasingly stringent caps on greenhouse gas emissions, leading to a 25 percent reduction by 2020.

The proposed ballot measure would put the climate change law on hold until California's beleaguered economy improves.

Study: Stronger National Renewable Energy Standard Needed For Significant Clean Energy Job Growth

The Job Impacts of a National Renewable Electricity Standard study, conducted by independent firm Navigant Consulting Inc. and released by the RES Alliance for Jobs, found that a 25% by 2025 national RES would support an additional 274,000 renewable energy jobs over a no-national-policy option. This total is also significantly higher than the expected jobs supported in the current House and Senate provisions under consideration in Congress, according to the RES Alliance for Jobs.

In addition, the study found that without stronger near-term targets than currently envisioned, industries like wind will experience flat job growth and long-term stagnation, while the U.S. biomass industry could collapse altogether. The RES Alliance recommends raising near-term RES targets in federal legislation to 12% by 2014 and 20% by 2020.

The study emphasizes that while tax credits continue to play a critically important role in preserving the viability of existing facilities, an RES is needed in order to support both near- and long-term investments.

Proposal to tax wind power stirs debate

Under the proposal, which may be introduced during the legislative budget session that starts next week, wind energy producers would be taxed $3 per megawatt hour — a rate comparable to about a 5 percent severance tax on minerals. The revenue would be split 60-40 between the state and local governments respectively.

Freudenthal said the generation tax was a matter of fairness, because unlike the coal, oil and natural gas industries, the wind energy industry doesn’t have to pay severance taxes.

“It’s a business, and as such should be subject to the same expectations of every other business,” he said.

Heroux-Devtek sees promise of wind energy despite lower short-term sales

Wind energy projects, which are being built or planned across Canada and in other countries, remain constrained in the short-term by the lack of transmission infrastructure and tight credit markets.

"However, we remain very much committed to that sector given its huge potential as industrialized nations seek to increase their exposure to clean energy sources," Labbe told analysts.

25 Percent of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Are Leaking Radioactive Chemicals

Would you like a little radioactive tritium with your water?

As far fetched as it sounds, the Associated Press recently reported that at least 27 of 104 nuclear reactors across the United States are leaking potentially dangerous levels of tritium into the groundwater around the plants.

The scope of the problem surfaced after the recent discovery of a leak at the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant. According to the AP, new tests have shown that the levels of tritium in the wells at the Vernon, Vermont site are more than three-and-a-half times the federal safety standard.

So is it as bad as it sounds? That's up for debate.

U.S. Energy Dept cancels surplus uranium transfers

The U.S. Energy Department has canceled plans to put into the market during 2011 extra government-owned surplus uranium supplies, Energy Secretary Steven Chu told Congress on Thursday, but the uranium transfers will continue for this year.

The department had planned to transfer next year up to 1,125 tonnes, or about 2.48 million lbs, of its surplus uranium a year to raise money to pay for the cleanup of the Portsmouth uranium enrichment plant in Ohio. . .

Not only would business be taken away from domestic uranium producers, but the additional government supplies in the market could have depressed prices, making it difficult for producers to expand operations.

Mining Company Grupo Mexico Buys Oil Drilling Firm For $240 Million

Mexican copper mining and railroad company Grupo Mexico SAB (GMEXICO.MX) said Friday that it bought oil drilling services company Compañía Perforadora Mexico SA, or Pemsa, for $240 million.

In its fourth-quarter earnings report, Grupo Mexico said the acquisition "is aligned with our strategy to increase our participation in the infrastructure sector."

Mexico State Oil Monopoly Pemex Sells MXN15 Billion In Bonds

Mexico's state oil monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos, said Thursday that it sold bonds for 15 billion pesos ($1.14 billion) in three tranches.

In a press release, Pemex, as the company is known, said it placed MXN8 billion in five-year bonds at a spread of 70 basis points over the benchmark 28-day TIIE interbank rate.

It also sold MXN5 billion in 10-year bonds at a fixed rate of 9.1% and about MXN2 billion in 10-year bonds denominated in inflation indexed UDIs that yield a fixed 4.2%.

Mexico shuts two oil ports due to weather

Two of Mexico's main oil ports in the Gulf of Mexico were closed on Sunday due to poor weather, the government said.

Mexico, a major oil supplier to the United States, shut the Coatzacoalcos and Dos Bocas oil export terminals, the communications and transport ministry said in a statement.

Russia resumes oil flows to Kazakh refineries

Russian oil firms have resumed oil shipments to Kazakhstan after the Federal Customs Service abolished an oil export duty levied on crude supplies to Kazakh refineries from Feb. 1, industry sources said on Friday.

Serbia, Gazprom sign deal for South Stream storage

Serbian gas monopoly Srbijagas and Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) signed a deal on Friday formally creating a joint venture to manage a major underground gas storage as part of the future South Stream pipeline. . . . .

The storage will be a part of a wider Gazprom-led South Stream pipeline project that has been designed to bypass Ukraine to transport Russian gas under the Black Sea to Bulgaria and onwards to Serbia and Europe.

Oil Output Swells 2.8% As Rosneft Pumps More

Production grew to 10.04 million barrels a day, the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit said in an e-mailed statement. Oil output was down slightly from December, when the country produced 10.05 million barrels a day.

Producers exported 4.78 million barrels of oil a day to countries outside the former Soviet Union, a decline of 0.5 percent from a year earlier and 1.4 percent from December. Total exports were 5.22 million barrels a day, excluding supplies to Belarus, for which CDU-TEK said it didn’t have data.

Halliburton May Gain From Norway’s Oil Spending Push

The government is urging producers such as state-controlled Statoil ASA and ConocoPhillips to improve recovery rates from the country’s oil deposits. Output has almost halved in the past decade after 40 years of pumping oil and natural gas from fields such as Ekofisk, Oseberg and Troll.

Statoil aims to spend 8 billion kroner ($1.4 billion) on upgrading installations this year, while Conoco is planning more platforms at Ekofisk, Norway’s largest oilfield. The Petroleum Directorate estimates 54 percent of crude in existing fields may be left underground if companies fail to improve recovery by speeding up drilling for harder-to-reach deposits.

Energy regulatory body hikes wind power tariff

The Gujarat Energy Regulatory Commission (GERC) has hiked the tariff for procurement of power generated from wind energy sources to Rs 3.56 per unit from earlier 3.37 per unit. This is a second order in a row where the regulator has supported the non-conventional energy players.

Utilities seek long-term green deals

For the first time, the state’s major power companies will make long-term commitments to buy green energy like wind and solar power. The four investor-owned utilities in Massachusetts - National Grid, NStar, Western Massachusetts Electric Co., and Unitil Corp. - are soliciting bids from producers of energy from renewable resources. Bidders have until Feb. 19 to submit proposals for 10- to 15-year contracts to sell power to the utilities, which do not make their own power, but rather buy and distribute it.

Wind Power in Europe Grows, but Credit Remains Tight

For the second year in a row, more wind power capacity was installed in the European Union than any other power technology, according to data compiled by the European Wind Energy Association.

The association reported that 39 percent of all new capacity installed last year was wind power. Runners-up were natural gas, which accounted for 26 percent of new capacity, and solar photovoltaics, which accounted for 16 percent.

CEZ To Sell Its Chvaletice 800MW Coal-Fired Power Plant

Czech power company CEZ AS (BAACEZ.PR) Friday said it has transferred its Chvaletice power plant into a separate joint stock company for its likely sale.

The coal-fired, 800 megawatt plant faces rising costs for fuel supplies and carbon emissions and isn't near any coal mines. As such, it is one of the most expensive power plants CEZ operates

Pa. wants last Centralia holdouts gone as town's coal mine fire, ignited in 1962, smolders on

After years of delay, state officials are now trying to complete the demolition of Centralia, a borough in the mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania that all but ceased to exist in the 1980s after the mine fire spread beneath homes and businesses, threatening residents with poisonous gases and dangerous sinkholes.

More than 1,000 people moved out, and 500 structures were razed under a $42 million federal relocation program.

North Energy rings bell on debut

North Energy, which has its headquarters in Alta, is focusing on Norway's northern play and already boasts a small but high-profile portfolio.

Reserve Potential Remains Positive in Norwegian North Sea

Five countries bordering the North Sea produce oil in its waters. The British and Norwegian sections are believed to hold the largest North Sea oil reserves. Experts estimate that the Norwegian sector contains about 55% of the North Sea's oil reserves and 45% of its gas reserves.

AWEL Looking for Jackup to Drill Offshore Mumbai Block

Adani Welspun Exploration Limited (AWEL), the Indian based independent Oil and Gas E & P company with assets in India, Thailand and Egypt, is planning to drill in January, 2011 in its Mumbai offshore Block MB-OSN-2005/2, situated on the west coast of India

No proposal to takeover ONGC's Assam fields

State-owned Oil India today said it will look at taking over Oil and Natural Gas Corp's Assam oilfields when an offer is made and will decide on the acquisition after due diligence. In a statement, OIL said there was no directive from the government to it to take over ONGC's Assam oilfields.

Severe ice situation costs Finland dear

The current severe ice situation will cost Finland dearly, as large masses of ice have packed together in the Gulf of Finland. Many cargo vessels have been forced to wait for several hours for icebreakers to assist them, sometimes even for a whole day. Moreover, the Nordlandia, an Eckerö Line ferry carrying hundreds of passengers, also got stuck in the ice at the end of January, having to wait for help for several hours. . . . . . The daily rate for the use of one icebreaker including fuel will be EUR 10,000 to 20,000.

Bodies of miners killed at coalmine in Luhansk region recovered

The bodies of three miners who died at a former coalmine in Luhansk region have been brought to the surface, and another miner died en route to hospital, the Ukrainian Emergencies Ministry's press service reported on Feb. 5. A gas explosion occurred at a disused coalmine, No. 153 in the town of Krasny Luch in Luhansk region, at a depth of 980 meters during unauthorized work to extract coal.

Ukraine poll may deliver oil to Europe

Ukraine's run-off election between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and rival Viktor Yanukovich, to be held on Sunday, may decide the future of a pipeline that could be used to deliver Caspian Sea oil to Europe, bypassing both Russia and Turkey. The pipeline was originally intended to carry crude oil originating in Azerbaijan in an east-to-west direction from terminals at the Black Sea Ukrainian port of Odessa to Brody, near Ukraine's border with Poland. In 2004, after Ukraine built the pipeline, it was decided for reasons discussed below to instead send Russian oil in the reverse of the originally intended direction, that is, from the southern branch of Russia's Druzhba pipeline and then northwest-to-southeast domestically within Ukraine. The possibility of again reversing the direction of oil flow, so that the fuel it carried would supply Europe as originally intended, was discussed last month.

Turkey believes Azerbaijan would accept natural gas price proposal - energy minister

Turkey believes that Azerbaijan will agree to the proposed price for natural gas from Shah Deniz field, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told reporters on Wednesday, Anadolu Agency reported."We have offered a reasonable price (for natural gas from Shah Deniz) to Azerbaijan and our offer has been accepted," said Yildiz.

Strong demand for LNG set to make Qatar a leading player

Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to remain strong in the medium to long term, thus making Qatar a vital player in the global energy security, according to Shell. “In spite of a short-term dip in demand due to the global financial crisis, global demand for LNG is expected to remain strong in the medium to long term,” Qatar Shell vice president Wael Sawan (pictured) told the Chatham House in London.

Recurrent Energy, California utility in solar pact

Solar power company Recurrent Energy said on Tuesday it signed long-term power contracts with California utility Southern California Edison for electricity generated by 50 megawatts of small-scale solar power systems. Financial terms of the deal were not released.

Maine Poised For Green Energy Future?

A top U.S. Department of Energy official says green jobs could help lead the country and Maine out of the recession. David Sandalow, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Energy met with business and enviromental leaders Thursday. He says Maine is poised to benefit from proposals supporting increased biofuel and ethanol production. Those programs could be a boost to the state's forestry and papermaking industries which are currently suffering.

Slipping energy sales lead developer to drop out of ISO New England queue

Citing a lack of demand for additional energy generating stations, Joe Fitzpatrick, CEO of DG Clean Power, has announced a plan to build a peaking power plant in Billerica has been removed from a list of proposals. Fitzpatrick said the proposal for the Billerica Energy Center, a 384-megawatt peaking plant slated to be built in North Billerica, has been taken off a queue of projects organized by ISO New England. Fitzpatrick said based on the current market, there is simply no demand for additional facilities.

Obama's New Nuke Plant Plans Stir Old Fears Over Waste Storage

President Obama is calling for $54 billion in loan guarantees for a "new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants." His administration also announced this week that it is dropping plans for underground storage of highly radioactive nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain. The position is drawing mixed reactions from around the country, including Maine, where waste from the decommissioned Maine Yankee plant will have to stay for the indefinite future, and in the rest of New England where nuclear power already makes up about 30 percent of the region's energy supply.

Palmer annouces Australia's "biggest" export deal with China

MINING magnate Clive Palmer says his company has secured Australia's biggest export deal with a $A69.39 billion agreement to sell coal to China.The Resourcehouse chairman on Saturday said the company's proposed China First coal mine and infrastructure project in central Queensland had reached a 20-year agreement with one of China's largest power companies, China Power International Development, the flagship company of China Power Investment Corporation (CPI).

THE TEN ESSENTIAL RENEWABLE ENERGY STORIES THIS WEEK

Big winds were blowing, fast wheels were spinning, and good grades were flowing for renewable energy this week. Early in the week it was announced that global wind power increased 31% in 2009. Although this growth was spurred by the European Union, United States and China, it was not limited to the industrial giants. Turkey, Chile, and Morocco each increased their capacity by at least 30%.

Gloom mining towns are boom towns thanks to housing frenzy

THE world's unquenchable thirst for energy has come to the rescue of the dying towns of southern Queensland. Chinchilla, Wandoan and Dalby are now in the middle of a housing boom that developers say is not just a once-in-a- lifetime but a once-ever opportunity that will see the population of the three towns double within the next five years. Wild estimates of investment topping $100 billion are thrown about by locals, and wages for the lucky ones will easily exceed $100,000 in towns where unemployment is already below 2 per cent.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/good-news-fo

Guest Commentary by Jim Bouldin (UC Davis)

How much additional carbon dioxide will be released to, or removed from, the atmosphere, by the oceans and the biosphere in response to global warming over the next century? That is an important question, and David Frank and his Swiss coworkers at WSL have just published an interesting new approach to answering it. They empirically estimate the distribution of gamma, the temperature-induced carbon dioxide feedback to the climate system, given the current state of the knowledge of reconstructed temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration, over the last millennium. It is a macro-scale approach to constraining this parameter; it does not attempt to refine

our knowledge about carbon dioxide flux pathways, rates or mechanisms. Regardless of general approach or specific results, I like studies like this. They bring together results from actually or potentially disparate data inputs and methods, which can be hard to keep track of, into a systematic framework. By organizing, they help to clarify, and for that there is much to be said.

Gamma has units in ppmv per ºC. It is thus the inverse of climate sensitivity, where CO2 is the forcing and T is the response. Carbon dioxide can, of course, act as both a forcing and a (relatively slow) feedback; slow at least when compared to faster feedbacks like water vapor and cloud changes. Estimates of the traditional climate sensitivity, e.g. Charney et al., (1979) are thus not affected by the study. Estimates of more broadly defined sensitivities that include slower feedbacks, (e.g. Lunt et al. (2010), Pagani et al. (2010)), could be however.

Existing estimates of gamma come primarily from analyses of coupled climate-carbon cycle (C4) models (analyzed in Friedlingstein et al., 2006), and a small number of empirical studies. The latter are based on a limited set of assumptions regarding historic temperatures and appropriate methods, while the models display a wide range of sensitivities depending on assumptions inherent to each. Values of gamma are typically positive in these studies (i.e. increased T => increased CO2).

To estimate gamma, the authors use an experimental (“ensemble”) calibration approach, by analyzing the time courses of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere T estimates, and ice core CO2 levels, from 1050 to 1800, AD. This period represents a time when both high resolution T and CO2 estimates exist, and in which the confounding effects of other possible causes of CO2 fluxes are minimized, especially the massive anthropogenic input since 1800. That input could completely swamp the temperature signal; the authors’ choice is thus designed to maximize the likelihood of detecting the T signal on CO2. The T estimates are taken from the recalibration of nine proxy-based studies from the last decade, and the CO2 from 3 Antarctic ice cores. Northern Hemisphere T estimates are used because their proxy sample sizes (largely dendro-based) are far higher than in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the results are considered globally applicable, due to the very strong correlation between hemispheric and global T values in the instrumental record (their Figure S3, r = 0.96, HadCRUT basis), and also of ice core and global mean atmospheric CO2.

The authors systematically varied both the proxy T data sources and methodologicalvariables that influence gamma, and then examined the distribution of the nearly 230,000 resulting values. The varying data sources include the nine T reconstructions (Fig 1), while the varying methods include things like the statistical smoothing method, and the time intervals used to both calibrate the proxy T record against the instrumental record, and to estimate gamma.

Figure 1. The nine temperature reconstructions (a), and 3 ice core CO2 records (b), used in the study.

Some other variables were fixed, most notably the calibration method relating the proxy and instrumental temperatures (via equalization of the mean and variance for each, over the chosen calibration interval). The authors note that this approach is not only among the mathematically simplest, but also among the best at retaining the full variance (Lee et al, 2008), and hence the amplitude, of the historic T record. This is important, given the inherent uncertainty in obtaining a T signal, even with the above-mentioned considerations regarding the analysis period chosen. They chose the time lag, ranging up to +/- 80 years, which maximized the correlation between T and CO2. This was to account for the inherent uncertainty in the time scale, and even the direction of causation, of the various physical processes involved. They also estimated the results that would be produced from 10 C4 models analyzed by Friedlingstein (2006), over the same range of temperatures (but shorter time periods).

So what did they find?

In the highlighted result of the work, the authors estimate the mean and median of gamma to be 10.2 and 7.7 ppm/ºC respectively, but, as indicated by the difference in the two, with a long tail to the right (Fig. 2). The previous empirical estimates, by contrast, come in much higher–about 40 ppm/degree. The choice of the proxy reconstruction used, and the target time period analyzed, had the largest effect on the estimates. The estimates from the ten C4 models, were higher on average; it is about twice as likely that the empirical estimates fall in the model estimates? lower quartile as in the upper. Still, six of the ten models evaluated produced results very close to the empirical estimates, and the models’ range of estimates does not exclude those from the empirical methods.

Figure 2. Distribution of gamma. Red values are from 1050-1550, blue from 1550-1800.

Are these results cause for optimism regarding the future? Well the problem with knowing the future, to flip the famous Niels Bohr quote, is that it involves prediction.

The question is hard to answer. Empirically oriented studies are inherently limited in applicability to the range of conditions they evaluate. As most of the source reconstructions used in the study show, there is no time period between 1050 and 1800, including the medieval times, which equals the global temperature state we are now in; most of it is not even close. We are in a no-analogue state with respect to mechanistic, global-scale understanding of the inter-relationship of the carbon cycle and temperature, at least for the last two or three million years. And no-analogue states are generally not a real comfortable place to be, either scientifically or societally.

Still, based on these low estimates of gamma, the authors suggest that surprises over the next century may be unlikely. The estimates are supported by the fact that more than half of the C4-based (model) results were quite close (within a couple of ppm) to the median values obtained from the empirical analysis, although the authors clearly state that the shorter time periods that the models were originally run over makes apples to apples comparisons with the empirical results tenuous. Still, this result may be evidence that the carbon cycle component of these models have, individually or collectively, captured the essential physics and biology needed to make them useful for predictions into the multi-decadal future. Also, some pre-1800, temperature independent CO2 fluxes could have contributed to the observed CO2 variation in the ice cores, which would tend to exaggerate the empirically-estimated values. The authors did attempt to control for the effects of land use change, but noted that modeled land use estimates going back 1000 years are inherently uncertain. Choosing the time lag that maximizes the T to CO2 correlation could also bias the estimates high.

On the other hand, arguments could also be made that the estimates are low. Figure 2 shows that the authors also performed their empirical analyses within two sub-intervals (1050-1550, and 1550-1800). Not only did the mean and variance differ significantly between the two (mean/s.d. of 4.3/3.5 versus 16.1/12.5 respectively), but the R squared values of the many regressions were generally much higher in the late period than in the early (their Figure S6). Given that the proxy sample size for all temperature reconstructions generally drops fairly drastically over the past millennium, especially before their 1550 dividing line, it seems at least reasonably plausible that the estimates from the later interval are more realistic. The long tail–the possibility of much higher values of gamma–also comes mainly from the later time interval, so values of gamma from say 20 to 60 ppm/ºC (e.g. Cox and Jones, 2008) certainly cannot be excluded.

But this wrangling over likely values may well be somewhat moot, given the real world situation. Even if the mean estimates as high as say 20 ppm/ºC are more realistic, this feedback rate still does not compare to the rate of increase in CO2 resulting from fossil fuel burning, which at recent rates would exceed that amount in between one and two decades.

I found some other results of this study interesting. One such involved the analysis of time lags. The authors found that in 98.5% of their regressions, CO2 lagged temperature. There will undoubtedly be those who interpret this as evidence that CO2 cannot be a driver of temperature, a common misinterpretation of the ice core record. Rather, these results from the past millennium support the usual interpretation of the ice core record over the later Pleistocene, in which CO2 acts as a feedback to temperature changes initiated by orbital forcings (see e.g. the recent paper by Ganopolski and Roche (2009)).

The study also points up the need, once again, to further constrain the carbon cycle budget. The fact that a pre-1800 time period had to be used to try to detect a signal indicates that this type of analysis is not likely to be sensitive enough to figure out how, or even if, gamma is changing in the future. The only way around that problem is via tighter constraints on the various pools and fluxes of the carbon cycle, especially those related to the terrestrial component. There is much work to be done there.

References

Charney, J.G., et al. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (1979).

Cox, P. & Jones, C. Climate change – illuminating the modern dance of climate and CO2. Science 321, 1642?1644 (2008).

Frank, D. C. et al. Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate. Nature 463, 527?530 (2010).

Friedlingstein, P. et al. Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the (CMIP)-M-4 model intercomparison. J. Clim. 19, 3337?3353 (2006).

Ganopolski, A, and D. M. Roche, On the nature of lead-lag relationships during glacial-interglacial climate transitions. Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 3361-3378 (2009).

Lee, T., Zwiers, F. & Tsao, M. Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods. Clim. Dyn. 31, 263?281 (2008).

Lunt, D.J., A.M. Haywood, G.A. Schmidt, U. Salzmann, P.J. Valdes, and H.J. Dowsett. Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modeling and data. Nature Geosci., 3, 60-64 (2010).

Pagani, M, Z. Liu, J. LaRiviere, and A.C.Ravelo. High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations. Nature Geosci., 3, 27-30

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/k1S6qjzbfYo/6186

Below the fold is a guest essay from a friend of mine who posts on The Oil Drum as 'Rock climber'. The post is a shortened version of a longer essay on the interrelationships between health care, human health, human happiness and resource use. As the healthcare sector makes up fully 17% of the GDP of the USA and therefore a significant fraction of our resource throughput, this is an important topic. If medical care is as inefficient as Rock climber thinks, focusing on basics might save considerable energy and other resources. The author is an internal medicine M.D. practicing in East-central Minnesota. Though this is an abridged version of a longer paper, he would welcome comments and feedback.

Abstract

I’ve been working on problems completely removed from Peak Oil, but the ignorance of big problems and the solutions turned out much the same. “Medical Dark Matter” is my metaphor for ignoring the causes of our relatively poor health.

Astronomers looked right past most of reality (96% invisible “dark matter”) until recently. Doctors looked only inside the body and thereby missed about 85% of what really makes people sick or healthy.

Although doctors can save some sick people, they have no power to make most people live longer.  Despite over $2 trillion a year of modern medical care, US life expectancy has dropped to 50^th in the world (CIA 2009) behind all of Europe and behind some very poor countries.  It seems to me that societal factors account for about 85% of differences in life expectancy, with genetics and individual health care accounting for the remainder.

Social factors- differences in our artificially created everyday living conditions- are the real keys to human health. Health is improved by money, social status, healthy early childhood, education and a good job.  Poverty and lack of control hurt health. Chronic stress boosts hormones that may harm health. Health choices (diet, exercise, and smoking) are shaped by the neighborhoods we live in, which are influenced by powerful business interests. Income equality is an interesting and controversial factor influencing health. The health of the wealthy may depend in part on the well being of the rest of society.

Money buys health for individual rich Americans, but has failed to make average Americans healthier. What we decide about healthcare reform will have no effect on US life expectancy, since doctors have so little influence on health.

Our American lifestyle takes years off our lives and cannot be sustained indefinitely by available energy resources.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: POPULATION HEALTH IS not individual health I practice conventional medicine; you should keep seeing your doctor.

Introduction: Biology doesn’t determine health

I am an internal medicine doctor and on really good days I save someone’s life.  But in the past 20 years I discovered two facts:

1. On the whole medical care has little effect on average lifespan.

2. Social factors can produce 5 year differences in life expectancy.

(Important warning: Population health, is different than individual health.)

At first I thought this had nothing to do with Peak Oil. But I realize the different questions have much the same answers.  Unless we realign our lives toward healthy sustainability we’ll continue to wreck both our health and the planet.  Individuals and societies are largely blind to both our unhealthy lives and our dangerous oil dependence for much the same reasons.  We think the status quo is fine and industry “experts” are happy to tell us to keep giving medical and oil corporations trillions of dollars.  Like everything else in our artificial modern world, healthcare and energy problems are really economic and social policy issues.

Science is the most powerful way to look at the world. But science once missed the biggest part of reality. In grade school we learned everything in the universe is made of atoms. But in the 20^th century astronomers discovered invisible, exotic ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ actually make up 96% of the universe. (At least science corrects itself; “experts” may not.)

American medicine might be the best in the world.  We buy more drugs and spend far more money than anyone else. Then why is our life expectancy (according to CIA statistics) 50^th in the world, behind every other industrialized country and some poor ones?

My paper is about life expectancy and population health. Lifespan is more accurate to measure than how well you feel, and usually correlates well with general health. Population studies allow us to figure out average effects (but “your mileage may vary”).

Population statistics explain how I save lives at the hospital, and yet doctors can’t do much for our national health. There are big differences between your individual health and national population health. Consider smoking as an example. If you are really lucky you can smoke cigarettes and still live to be 101.  If you get unlucky you might drop dead from a heart attack at age 50. When we look at a large group of smokers, we find smoking takes 5 years (60 months) of life away from the average individual pack a day smoker. Consider a country where 10% of people smoke a pack a day. The national average effect of smoking would be 6 months (10% of 5 years). All these numbers describe smoking risks.

Our very best drugs reduce the fatal heart attack risk in very sick patients from about 6% to 4% over 5 years. That’s a relative 33% less (4/6) or 2% absolutely less (6-4), or a 1 in 50 (100/2% = 50 = number needed to treat to save one) chance of being saved in 5 years, or up to 2 months average life extension. All these different numbers are accepted estimates for our best cholesterol drugs.

Luckily, having a truly life threatening problem is very rare. Most people see doctors for aches or colds, or a chronic problem like cholesterol. Over half my 3000 HMO patients never saw me for years. (Most healthcare is received by “frequent fliers”). Since most people seldom see doctors, the number of lives saved by modern medicine turns out to be far lower than I (and everyone else) once assumed. (Population health is not individual health!  If you die it’s tragic, but just a 1 in 300 million statistical fluke).

Medical journals since the 1980’s show that social factors are the real keys to human health.  The Whitehall study of British civil servants reported doormen at the bottom died an average 7 ½ years earlier than the bosses at the top. 60% of that gap persists when adjusted for “medical factors”: smoking, obesity, exercise, and blood pressure.  More studies followed with similar results.

Social factors produce big differences in life expectancy:

-50 plus year gaps between some poor and rich nations

-4 years gaps between US counties, 6 years between US states

-7 ½ years span from the janitor to the top boss

-6 year gap between high school dropouts and college educated

-5 or 6 year differences between different developed nations 

-5 year gap from black race in US, or from male gender

-5 years individual smoking status; few months population average

Medical factors produce very small differences in lifespan:

-Up to 3 month average individual effect of our very best drugs

-few days or no average effect of common preventive healthcare

-I estimate less than 2 months average from all health care effects

The basic circumstances of daily life are the main causes of health and disease. 

Is it so surprising people living in tin shack ghettos have different health than inhabitants of Hollywood mansions? Anthropologists know undisturbed hunter gatherers (now extinct) had lifespans in the 70’s.  We are genetically identical to our hunter gatherer ancestors, but our cultures (the sum of all beliefs and material goods) are very different. Our genes confirm we are all the same inside but live very differently. Social factors make up our everyday lives: food, shelter and the computer I sit at tonight (and the open sewers of Monrovia’s ghettos).

No research is published about how much total medical care affects our lives. I estimate the effect is probably less than 2 months average. If we had no advanced medical care we might live to an average of 78 years instead of 78.1. I estimate 45% social factors (money, education, work and geography), 40% neighborhood shaped choices (exercise, diet and smoking), 12% ‘fixed’ biology (gender and genetics), and no more than 3% healthcare determine average health in rich countries.  Society, not biology, underlies 85% of human health. Healthcare may make a 2 month difference, while social factors make 5 year differences in lifespan.

Doctors looked only inside our bodies, when they could have looked outside. “Medical dark matter” points out our blindness:

Only 4% of the universe is made of visible atoms- DARK MATTER is 96% of total reality

Healthcare determines about 3% of longevity in rich countries- Social Factors (MEDICAL DARK MATTER) are 85%

This is dark material. Some doctors have trouble believing what we do is as powerless as I believe.  Medical journals present convincing evidence that our profession ignores. It’s hard to admit what we do does so little good. But our tests and medicines might be undone if the patient is poor, stressed out at work, and has no chance to get fresh fruit or walk in fresh air. After hard questioning, I have come to believe the scientific data presented here.

Dark Matter in the Universe: 96% invisible, 4% atoms NASA

Medical Dark Matter: 85% social, 12% biology, 3% healthcare Ed Ward

Healthcare’s 2 months is 3 % of the 5 year lifespan gaps from social causes in rich nations.

DISCLAIMER: This paper is not about the overall relative merits of American medicine or of American society. Health is shaped mostly by other factors, irrespective of the inherent quality of medical care. Social factors likely excuse our poor outcomes. America leads the world in individual freedom and prosperity, which may trump years of lost life expectancy.

II. Social Determinants of Health

1. Social Status: Money, Education, Work

-Money (Poverty)

Simple income is the biggest determinant of average life expectancy. Differences between poor and rich countries can be over 50 years and show the importance of basic living conditions to human health.

Health vs. Money is a ‘Preston Curve’. In 2009 there is a 52 year gap between Swaziland (31.9 years) and Macau (84.4 years).

Poverty inside rich countries also harms health. Average people in the worst US county (a South Dakota Indian reservation) die 16 years before those in the longest living county. These maps show poor counties (top) are usually unhealthier (bottom):

-Education

Graduating from college doubles income (to $56,118) and adds 5.9 years to life compared to high school dropouts.  Educated people tend to have and make better choices in life. School dropouts are prone to smoking, dead end jobs, and poor health.

Globally, educating girls may save the human race. In the developing world, literate women choose to have far fewer children (the demographic transition). This should continue to slow down the growth of the human population so it doesn’t ruin all planetary resources and wipe out our species in 40 years.

-Work

Workers at the bottom have less control and face more hazards, then get a smaller check, fewer benefits and die 7 years sooner.

 

Occupational Class differences in Life Expectancy, England and Wales 1997-1999. Whitehall results.

2. Socially Influenced Choices: Smoking, Exercise, Diet

-Recreational Drugs

Smoking is the number one easily preventable cause of death. The poor, uneducated and mentally ill smoke and abuse drugs more. (Rich people drink more alcohol, but more poor people become alcoholic). Doctors’ advice has not been proven to help. Powerful, politically connected businesses heavily promote the use of recreational chemicals, legal and otherwise.

Preventable causes of death in US. Data from McGinnis 1993

People with rich, fulfilling lives are probably less likely to abuse drugs, analogous to Alexander’s 1970’s animal experiments. A caged rat will repeatedly press a lever for a narcotic high until it starves to death. But if you put a bunch of rats in a big room with interesting toys, they’ll ignore an open bowl of sugar flavored morphine. The #1 prescribed drug in America is now the narcotic pain killer hydrocodone (written 121 million times in 2008).

Opiates are now the opiate of the masses. Are our lives now like lone caged rats?

-Exercise, Diet, Obesity

76% of Americans are overweight or obese. Obesity is painful (arthritis) and shortens life (heart attacks, cancer, diabetes). Obesity cost the US $147 billion in 2008, and diabetes cost $174 billion. As bad as it is, obesity is not the biggest cause of Americans dying too early.  Whitehall found job status was more important than obesity and other “medical” factors.  Greeks are the second most obese people, but eat healthy food (the Mediterranean diet) and live long lives.

These maps show how much fatter we’ve become state by state in 24 years:

I worked in Africa with people who all wanted to be fat. It looks “rich and comfortable,” but they can’t afford enough food. When I explained that most Americans are fat but wish to be skinny, they asked if Americans have a lack of willpower. It’s not quite that simple. Obesity is a social problem, and especially affects poor and minority people inside rich countries. Powerful government subsidized industries including agribusiness (cheap sugar) and petroleum (cheap gas, compared to elsewhere) influence how easily people can find healthy food or walk in their neighborhoods. See HJ Kunstler’s ‘Big and Blue in the USA’ to laugh and cry.

3.  Social/Gene Interaction: Racism, Gender

Gender and race are social definitions. Gender is unique in the oppressed outliving the oppressor (rarely biology trumps society).

Racism is one of our oldest and most emotional social problems. 200 years ago we brought one fifth of our ancestors here as slaves in chains. We put them to work on a continent that was already inhabited. African Americans and Native Americans still don’t get their full shares of the American dream. Race rarely affects health, but racism, poverty and living conditions do.

4.  Place, Environment

Our neighborhoods combine other social factors with soil, air and water that might be clean or polluted. 10,000 years ago humans were hunter gatherers living in pristine woods. Then we invented agriculture, towns and cities. Modern poor places have far more physical (lead, cockroaches) and social cigarette billboards) hazards. “Choosing” a healthy life is hard if you live in a city of a million people with bad schools, no jobs (auto industry imploded), and not a single chain supermarket in town since 2007 (Detroit) and all but impossible during two decades of civil war (Liberia, where I worked in 2004).

The diplomatic neighborhood in Monrovia, Liberia. photo by author 2004

Consider how differently some peoples live, and how it affects health:

(click for larger image)

III. Income Inequality

“As I’ve often said, this (increasing income inequality) is not the type of thing which a democratic society- a capitalist democratic society- can really accept without addressing”

What flaming liberal is so worried about income inequality?

-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, testifying before congress June 2005.

Countries (like Sweden) and US states (like Minnesota) that more evenly divvy up the money tend to be much healthier.  Income inequality causes or correlates with many social evils:

Shorter life expectancy, high infant mortality, obesity, teen pregnancy, mental illness, imprisonment, crime, low educational scores and less social mobility are correlations noted in The Spirit Level published 2009 by Wilkinson and Pickett.

I note apparent correlations with military spending, pharmaceutical advertising and spending, rampant consumerism, corporate power, television watching, low voter turnout, absence of labor unions, automobile use, gun ownership, fast food, sedentary indoor lives, living alone, younger and more mixed populations, and non-denominational religion. A mix of factors including inequality may make some populations dysfunctional. Some societies will decide costs of inequality are worth the gains for those on top.

US inequality worsened in the past 30 years. In 2008 the top 10% of the US population got 48.5% of total income, the top 1% got 23%, and just the top 1/100 of 1% (14,988 families) took 6% of it all.

The authors of the following chart are liberal social scientists, but they might be right about income inequality. I’m uncertain.

Correlation does not equal causation, but there are plausible theories how position in social hierarchy could harm health. The 1.4 billion people living on less than $1.25 daily have trouble getting water, food and shelter. The poor in rich countries are “only” relatively poor. Still the poor, minorities and low level workers have more stress and shorter lives. Stress and feeling lack of control boost neuroendocrine hormones that could shorten life. Sapolsky found wild baboons have graded social stress too. Stress hormones (epinephrine and cortisol) levels fall and lifespans increase step wise up the social ladder to the alpha male, the CEO of baboons. He’s cool as a cucumber, bosses every one else around, and outlives everyone else by years.

Sapolsky found baboon neuroendocrine stress hormone levels vary dramatically with rank in the social hierarchy

IV. The American Paradox: we spend so much for so little

The United States tries to have the best medical care in the world. Yet, in 2009 American life expectancy dropped again to 50^th in the world (CIA).  We were just surpassed by Wallis and Fatuna (a terribly poor South Pacific territory).

This happened before:

A fable of total 2006 healthcare spending (public plus private):

-Cubans spent $363 per person average (7.1% of GDP); life expectancy was 76 years men and 80 years women.

-Americans spent $6714 per person (15.3% of GDP back then); life expectancy was 75 years men and 80 years women.

-statistics from the World Health Organization 2009.

American healthcare costs $2.1 trillion and one year did not quite match the results of a tiny country that spent only 5% as much per person. This outdated fact is totally anecdotal and totally true.

Almost all other industrialized nations and some poor ones now outlive us.  Since rich populations generally do better, this is particularly puzzling.  Our lifespan has slowly increased to 78.1 years, but is about 3 or 4 years behind Sweden, Australia and Japan.

The social factors we’ve been discussing plus the fact medical care does not prolong life much on average explains our relatively poor health outcomes. It’s not the fault of doctors. American medical care saves some sick people’s lives, but is just overwhelmed by the negative bigger effects of social problems. The US is very rich, but near the bad end of many other social determinants including income inequality, education (ours kids have lower scores), and jobs (our workers work longer for less benefits). American lifestyle takes years off our lives (and cannot be indefinitely sustained by available energy resources).

V. Conclusion: Healthcare average effects are minimal

Medical Dark Matter is summarized in an outlandish true claim:

Only 4% of the universe is atoms, and healthcare causes only about 3% of health variation- a 2 month difference

Money helps individual rich Americans live longer, but it has not helped our relatively poor national health. We spend $7000 a year per person on healthcare and live no longer for it. Our annual $2.1 trillion dollars is misdirected by believing health is determined inside our bodies.  Without modern doctors Americans would probably live to an average 78 years instead of 78.1. How long we live is instead determined by real living conditions:  our schools, workplaces, neighborhoods and other social factors.

Disclaimer: My remarks apply only to populations, not to individual health. I share my findings only to help you think about choices our society will make about health and social policy (with or without you).

VI. Consequences

Healthcare’s impotence has consequences for doctors, society and individuals.

The bad health of Americans isn’t doctors' fault. It would be nice to focus on what works best, but retired major journal editors confirm published research has often been skewed by profit interests. Basics like vaccines, sick care and trauma surgery might save more lives than giving more pills to diabetics, but who knows. Good schools and workplaces, and neighborhoods that assist good choices will improve health far more than medical care. It would be cheaper and more effective to treat many diseases as the social problems they really are. Good societal living conditions are the ultimate preventive medicines. Teach girls to read, thus saving the world.

Americans pay to cling to life (average medicare cost $46,412 in the last six months), but we don’t buy anything that might really make us live longer. Why? The medical industry is 17% of GDP and rising. Doctors fail to do basic healthcare analysis and industry supported “experts” gladly fill the gap. Turning over medical care over to corporate interests had the expected results. Deciding whether we want longer lives or bigger profits could be a good start. Unfortunately healthcare reform may happen without any examination of whether medical care works and what it costs.

As a privileged American, I enjoy freedom (I can write this paper) and money. I think everyone should get affordable access to basic healthcare and we should also improve peoples living conditions. Some reasonable people will decide we should continue to maximize individual freedom and material prosperity over other values. The doctor has informed you of benefits and risks. You can decide whether what we get (more money overall) is worth the price (shorter average lives) of American lifestyle and healthcare.

Whatever we decide about healthcare is not very important for lifespan, which is determined by socially created living conditions. Don’t worry (stress is unhealthy). Healthcare reform is an important political and economic issue, but it can’t much affect the health of Americans.

For individuals, the biggest health factor is luck. In the ER I sometimes see a 95 year old man who hasn’t seen any doctor in 30 years, still rides a horse and is healthier than all my other patients. There are no guarantees, but living right (good choices and good neighbors) can improve your odds. Being born to wealth and privilege helps. Working hard for money and an elusive CEO job may be counterproductive. Downsizing your life can be quite satisfying, healthy, and good for the planet. Whether your neighborhood is favorable or not, make yourself exercise a lot (outside if possible) and eat healthy (vegetables, grains, whole foods, not to excess).  Working and playing outside with friends deeply satisfies my own hunter gatherer genome.

Please don’t just buy a bunch of guns and hole up.  I’m planning on some of you smart TOD people to realign our world financial system so I’ll still have a 401K account in 20 years (and so all the people in Asia don’t live just like us and kill the planet).

Optimists take heart: the global human lifespan probably grew 35 years last century.  US life expectancy is also growing slowly, and in 20 years may be where Sweden’s is today (they hit 78 years in 1989).  Healthcare does little, but global human living conditions (outside Africa) are improving rapidly, and world population growth is slowing.  I believe humans overall will do just fine.

Liberians lived on less than a dollar a day, but were happier than most Americans. Some things could be more important than health or money.

Final Disclaimer: Population Health is not Individual Health. Doctors save the lives of many people every day. I practice conventional medicine; keep seeing your doctor! You can decide if America’s social policies are worth the costs.

Appendix

Ranked Life Expectancy in years, at birth (total both sexes)

Source: 2009 CIA World Fact Book

You can start your own research here. Selected nations; comments mine. Higher gini means more unequal income distribution.

*depends on if you count from Doe (top) killing Tolbert (bottom) in 1980.

Selected Bibliography (over 300 references available)

Adler, N; Stewart, J; et al. Reaching for a healthier life: Facts on socioeconomic status and health in the US. The John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation, online at http://www.macses.ucsf.edu/News/Reaching%20for%20a%20Healthier%20Life.pdf

Central Intelligence Agency of the United States Government, CIA World Factbook 2009 data for 224 countries, online at cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

Kunstler, James Howard, Big and Blue in the USA. Orion Magazine 2003.online at http://newcities.org/files/iic/BigAndBlue.pdf

Lynch JW, Smith GD, Kaplan, GA, House, JS. Income inequality and mortality: importance to health of individual income, psychosocial environment, or material conditions. BMJ 2000; 320:1200-1204 (24 April)

Marmot, Michael, Social determinants of health inequalities. Lancet 2005; 365: 1099–104.

Marmot, Michael; Wilkinson, Richard; Social determinates of health: the solid facts. 2003 World Health Organization. Regional Office for Europe, WHO Healthy Cities Project, WHO International Centre for Health and Society, online at http://www.euro.who.int/DOCUMENT/E81384.PDF

McGinnis JM, Foege WH. Actual causes of death in the United States. JAMA. 1993;270:2207-2212.

Sapolsky, Robert M, Review: The Influence of Social Hierarchy on Primate Health. Science29 April 2005:Vol. 308. no. 5722, pp. 648 - 652DOI: 10.1126/science.1106477.

Wilkinson, Richard; Pickett, Kate. The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger. American version in press, Bloomsbury Press (December 22, 2009)

World Health Organization, Commission on the Social Determinants of Health- final report Closing the gap in a generation: Health equity through action on the social determinants of health 2008 executive summary online at http://whqlibdoc.who.int/hq/2008/WHO_IER_CSDH_08.1_eng.pdf

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/54tD1IaSToI/6188

Racking up miles? Maybe not.

Within a few years, a driver who pulls up to the gas pump may pay two bills with a single swipe of the credit card: one for the gas and the other for each mile driven since the last fill-up. That may be the result of what many transportation experts see as an inevitable revolution in the way Americans pay for their highways.

The flow of the gas tax pipeline that has poured cash into one of the world's premier highway systems has slowed as some people drive less and others choose more fuel-efficient vehicles. Maintaining that aging network and tackling the rush-hour congestion afflicting most cities will require billions of dollars.

Gas production drops due to cold weather

The cold spell over Norway has also affected the export of natural gas. The Ormen Lange plant was closed dowwn last wekend, and the Kårstø plant is working at only one third capacity. The reason is the icing down of pipes and equipment. Norske Shell says it is uncertain when the Ormen Lange plant will re-open.

Gas drilling in Appalachia produces a foul byproduct

A drilling technique that is beginning to unlock staggering quantities of natural gas underneath Appalachia also yields a troubling byproduct: powerfully briny wastewater that can kill fish and give tap water a foul taste and odor.

With fortunes, water quality and cheap energy hanging in the balance, exploration companies, scientists and entrepreneurs are scrambling for an economical way to recycle the wastewater.

Wastewater from drilling has not threatened plans to develop the nation's other gas reserves. Brine is injected into deep underground wells in places such as Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma, or left in evaporation ponds in arid states such as Colorado and Wyoming.

However, many doubt the hard Appalachian geology is porous enough to absorb all the wastewater, and the climate is too humid for evaporating ponds. That leaves recycling as the most obvious option.

A fracking quandary for EPA

IF THE United States is going to curb its greenhouse gas emissions, it desperately needs a replacement for the high-carbon coal that fuels almost half the nation’s electricity. Unfortunately, there are downsides to all the alternatives, from nuclear power, which carries a high cost and emits toxic waste with no place to store it, to wind turbines, which also have a high cost and require extensive transmission lines to link windy areas with cities.

Now new deposits of natural gas previously locked in shale formations are making that fuel look like a possible transition to a low-carbon future. Federal and state regulators have to ensure, however, that the rush to exploit this new source of gas does not cause severe environmental damage. The US Environmental Protection Agency could have been an effective referee over this process. Yet the gas industry managed to slip into the 2005 energy bill an exemption from EPA review of the special drilling that shale formations require. Congress should repeal that provision.

US GAS: Futures End Higher On Cold Weather Expectations

Natural gas futures ended higher Friday on forecasts for cold weather that is expected to drive demand for the fuel.

Natural gas for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 9.9 cents, or 1.83%, higher at $5.515 a million British thermal units. The front-month contract climbed as high as $5.598/MMBtu in earlier trading.

Meteorologists were predicting cold winter weather that can stoke demand for gas to heat homes and businesses. The National Weather Service is forecasting below-normal temperatures across the Midwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Feb. 12-18.

Turkey requests Iran, Russia to revise ‘take-or-pay’ conditions

Searching for ways to increase sales amid a contraction in natural gas demand, Turkey has asked Russia and Iran, two of the country’s biggest natural gas suppliers, to revise their “take-or-pay” conditions.

Turkey’s natural gas consumption has dropped noticeably in the past few months. This contraction followed hikes in gas prices during 2009. The government, therefore, does not take kindly to paying money for unused gas.

Iran discovers new oil, gas fields

Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mirkazemi announced two oil and gas fields have been discovered respectively in western Kermanshah and southern Fars provinces.

Soumar oilfield with 475 million barrels of in-situ crude oil reserve, 70 million barrels recoverable, and Halgan gas field with the daily production capacity of 50 million cubic meters of gas have been recently discovered, the Mehr news agency reported.

Peak Oil Exploration Stocks

In the absence of takeovers, exploration group valuations are starting to look stretched at current oil prices. Tullow's stock is trading at a 2% premium to net asset value while the rest of the sector is trading at a modest 12% discount, based on an oil price of $79 a barrel, according to UBS research.

In such a shifting competitive landscape, further share price rises will depend not only on the independents' ability to maintain recent exploration success rates and control costs, but also much higher oil prices

Crude Oil Leads A Broad Selloff

"A lot of people piled in [the oil market] at the beginning of the year, and at the beginning of this week," when investors held a more-optimistic economic outlook, said Andy Lebow, senior vice president for energy with MF Global in New York. "There's a sense of uneasiness about … how robust the recovery's going to be."

The main concern this week was that tentative signs of economic growth will evaporate if governments begin to dial back stimulus measures. In Europe, investors fear Greece, Spain and Portugal will need deep spending cuts and other punishing fiscal measures to bring debts under control. The U.S. is grappling with its own deficits, making a repeat of last year's stimulus spending unlikely, while China began restricting lending last month to prevent high inflation.

Nature inadvertently produces its own oil spills

Then where do oil and gas in U.S. waters come from? A report from the National Academy of Sciences published in The Economist found that petroleum exploration and extraction causes 1 percent of the total, while spillage from ships accounts for three percent.

Thirty-one percent comes from land runoff including leakage from our vehicles, boats and power lawnmowers. Where does the rest originate?

A whopping 61 percent comes from "natural seepage." Just like the La Brea tar pits in California, oil and gas arises from petroleum deposits below the seabed. Ironically, offshore drilling reduces pressure and actually decreases levels of natural pollution in the ocean.

Iraq plans to become OPEC's top oil producer

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Al Shahristani said his country would steadily increase oil production over the next seven years.

Al Shahristani said this would make Iraq the world's top oil producer over the next six to seven years.

Arctic climate changing faster than expected

"(Climate change) is happening much faster than our most pessimistic models expected," said David Barber, a professor at the University of Manitoba and the study's lead investigator, at a news conference in Winnipeg.

Models predicted only a few years ago that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by the year 2100, but the increasing pace of climate change now suggests it could happen between 2013 and 2030, Barber said

Black Carbon a Significant Factor in Melting of Himalayan Glaciers

The fact that glaciers in the Himalayan mountains are thinning is not disputed. However, few researchers have attempted to rigorously examine and quantify the causes. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory scientist Surabi Menon set out to isolate the impacts of the most commonly blamed culprit -- greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide -- from other particles in the air that may be causing the melting. Menon and her collaborators found that airborne black carbon aerosols, or soot, from India is a major contributor to the decline in snow and ice cover on the glaciers.

"Our simulations showed greenhouse gases alone are not nearly enough to be responsible for the snow melt," says Menon, a physicist and staff scientist in Berkeley Lab's Environmental Energy Technologies Division. "Most of the change in snow and ice cover -- about 90 percent -- is from aerosols. Black carbon alone contributes at least 30 percent of this sum."

New errors in IPCC climate change report

The United Nations panel on climate change is facing fresh criticism today as The Sunday Telegraph reveals new factual errors and poor sources of evidence in its influential report to government leaders.

Climate change research bungle

The research institute run by the head of the UN’s climate body has handed out a series of environmental awards to companies that have given it financial support, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose.

Arizona Renewable Energy Standard Under Attack From Right

Arizona was one of the healthy energy states, with a requirement for 15% renewable energy by 2025. But now a Republican state representative in the Arizona state legislature is challenging the right of the Arizona Corporation Commission to set a requirement that utilities add more renewable energy, with a bill that would strip them of the responsibility.

China's edge in renewable energy

In the United States, power companies often face the choice of buying renewable energy equipment or continuing to operate fossil-fuel-fired power plants that have already been built and paid for. In China, power companies have to buy new equipment anyway, and alternative energy, particularly wind and nuclear, is increasingly priced competitively. Interest rates as low as 2 percent on bank loans — the result of a savings rate of 40 percent and a government policy of steering loans to renewable energy — have also made a difference.

As in many other industries, China's low labor costs are an advantage in energy. Although wages have risen sharply in the past five years, Vestas still pays Chinese assembly line workers only $4,100 a year.

Irish OceanEnergy and US Dresser Rand start partnership on innovative wave energy technology

Under the agreement, Dresser-Rand will develop and supply the turbines needed to transform wave energy into electricity using the OceanEnergy Buoy (OE Buoy). A scaled version of the OE Buoy has been tested in Atlantic Ocean waters during two years at a government test site on Galway Bay. The concept is the result of 7 years of research and development. An important characteristic of the device is that it only has one moving part: the turbine.

This is an original, simple and radical change when compared with other wave energy generators that usually have multiple parts in motion. The OE Buoy is hollow. It has a chamber inside. The bottom is open to allow the flow of ocean water inside in one direction: up or down. It is also open on top where the turbine is placed. It transforms the energy from the waves moving vertically inside the buoy which displaces the air within the chamber. The displaced air is used to move the turbine to generate electricity. Here is where Dresser-Rand turbines are used, the only moving element of the OE Buoy.

Ireland hopes to generate 600MW of electricity with these OE Buoys deployed on its coast. This will be enough energy for almost half a million homes.

Nuclear renaissance could stall, Canada group says

Expectations of a sharp rise in nuclear generating capacity over the next two decades are likely overblown, a Canadian think tank said on Thursday, disputing conventional wisdom that a nuclear renaissance is in full swing.

Standing in the way of new construction are costs that can run up to $10 billion per new reactor, competition from other, cheaper, energy sources, the problem of safely disposing of nuclear waste, and concern about the spread of nuclear weapons, the report said.

"On balance, a significant expansion of nuclear energy worldwide to 2030 faces constraints that, while not insurmountable, are likely to outweigh the drivers of nuclear energy," it said.

In D.C. area, outages, snow plowing conspire against normal week ahead

"We think it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before people can think about getting to work," said Sean T. Connaughton, Virginia's secretary of transportation.

It might be almost as long before power is restored to thousands of homes and businesses after the heavy snow and high winds conspired to topple trees across power lines throughout the region. Streets impassable even for utility companies' massive vehicles amplified the challenge.

Riding the Rails, Until the Weather Caught Up

When the powerful Mid-Atlantic winter storm grounded all flights and shut down highways in the Mid-Atlantic region, Amtrak’s Capitol Limited, bound for Chicago from Washington, seemed to offer 115 passengers the perfect cozy alternative as it sped through the snow-swept countryside on Friday night.

But around 2:45 a.m. on Saturday, the train made an unscheduled stop just outside the former coal-mining town of Connellsville, Pa., 57 miles southeast of Pittsburgh. There, downed trees and power lines blocked the Capitol Limited, stranding and infuriating passengers who said they were not updated about the situation.

Electric Motors, Made to Order

Tailoring electric motors for duty in vehicles has necessitated the development of new materials, sophisticated electronic controls and some clever design variations, said Heath Hofmann, an associate professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Zoom Replaces Missing Vroom

As more hybrid and battery-electric vehicles enter the marketplace, though, the maxim is being transformed. Returning to a role in propelling vehicles that largely disappeared decades ago, electric motors are attracting attention from automakers, who see the need for hybrids and E.V.’s to have personality and character that parallels their brand’s image.

Toyota tells dealers it'll send them plans for fixing Prius brakes

Toyota sent a message to its beleaguered dealers Friday night saying they would be getting details of a plan this week to deal with brake-system problems on the 2010 Prius. But there was no word on what that plan might be, or whether there would be a recall.

Centralia, Pa., coal fire is one of hundreds that burn in the U.S

Approximately 200 underground coal fires burn in about 20 states, according to Glenn Stracher, a researcher at East Georgia College in Swainsboro, Ga., A separate tally shows 112 fire sites in 21 states, according to Office of Surface Mining data analyzed by Dr. Stracher and fellow researcher Ann Kim.

Centralia, Pa.: How an underground coal fire erased a town

There's not much left of the northeastern Pennsylvania coal town these days. Even in the early 1980s, some two decades after the underground fires began, more than a thousand people called Centralia home. But as the poisonous gases continued to seep from fissures in the ground, and as the sudden sinkholes threatened to cast people into the smoldering depths, the town emptied out.

Low-flow toilets have improved

I’ve become immersed the history and recent technological advances of the toilet. (For instance, did you know the derivation of the word? It’s from the word toile: “French for ‘cloth’ draped over a lady or gentleman's shoulders whilst their hair was being dressed, and then … by extension … the whole complex of operations of hairdressing and body care that centered at a dressing table.”

That helped me understand something that has puzzled me since childhood: the difference between eau de toilette and perfume

Green firewood: A chimney sweep's view of danger

A Fairbanks chimney cleaner has given the News-Miner photos of some of the most creosote-clogged chimneys he's recently seen in hopes of preventing death by chimney fire. It's a problem Charlie Whitaker says is getting worse as dry firewood gets harder to come by in the city. Besides clogging chimneys, wet firewood has been blamed for a good part of Fairbanks' intractable winter air pollution problem.

Rebate on solar water heater cut to $750

(Honolulu) The rebate available to homeowners for installing solar water heaters has been cut to $750 from $1,000 because high demand is depleting the amount in the ratepayer-funded program, officials said yesterday.

Electricity rates going up

February residential electricity rates will rise for customers of Hawaiian Electric Co. and its sister subsidiaries because of higher fuel costs. Hawaiian Electric Co. said the typical 600-kilowatt-hour bill for O'ahu residential customers will rise to $148.23 from $145 in January. The effective rate for electricity in Honolulu is 23.60 cents per kilowatt hour, up from 22.66 cents last month.

All-electric car appears as city gets charged up

Nissan's new all-electric vehicle, the Leaf, made a quiet appearance on Friday, showing off its nearly silent motor as it rolled about the Reliant Stadium parking lot and signaling what the city hopes may be the start of an electric movement on Houston's streets.

“With ongoing research and development of wind, solar and electric fuel sources, we are on the cusp of becoming the alternative energy capital of the world,” Parker said. “It is fitting that the city be a leader in increasing public awareness of environmentally friendly transportation alternatives like the Leaf.”

Shtokman postponed 3 years

A press release from the company confirms that a final investment decision in the project's pipeline part will be taken in March 2011, while the decision on the LNG part will be taken before the end of 2011, newspaper Vedomosti reports.

Pindiites face low gas pressure

The low pressure of Sui gas again hit many parts of the Rawalpindi City making it difficult for the residents even to cook their meals.

They urged the concerned authorities to address the problem as dealers of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) selling the gas in black and charging from Rs150 to 170 per kilogram while many using firewood and kerosene oil as alternatives.

Tajiks Buy Into State Power Plant Initiative

With the Tajik government desperately seeking funds to finish a pet project of national importance, the people appear to be buying into the country's dream of being an energy exporter.

Government officials, religious figures, and citizens have been lining up behind the presidentially inspired effort to generate enough cash to complete the long-unfinished Roghun power plant by issuing shares in the state company directly to individuals and organizations.

Find the best energy deal as price war looms

About 8 million households will benefit from a surprise decision by British Gas to cut prices by an average of 7pc last week – but it still makes sense to check that your fuel bills are as low as possible.

Green light for show homes to sell eco-town project

One hundred "eco-show homes" are to be built to allow people to "test drive" green living as ministers try to convince the public that controversial eco-towns can work.

This week the Housing minister, John Healey, will announce the start of building work on the properties in towns near to the four sites earmarked for Britain's first zero-carbon developments. Work will start next year on a further 10,000 eco-homes that will be for sale in the areas.

Decision on Shtockman postponed

The development of the giant Russian offshore gas field Shtockman in the Barents Sea has been postponed. The Board of the Shtockman Development has voted to delay investment decisions until next year.

Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail starts operation

XI'AN: A high-speed railway linking central China city Zhengzhou and northwestern city Xi'an, went into operation Saturday. The 505-km Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed railway, the first of its kind in central and western China, cut the travel time between the two cities from former more than six hours to less than two hours, said local railway authorities Saturday. The train traveled at 350 kilometers per hour, said Long. A total of 14 trains would be traveling between Zhengzhou and Xi'an every day, said Long.

Minivans drive up auto sales growth

China's automobile market continued its robust growth in January, with sales surging 84 percent from a year earlier, heavily boosted by minivans, China Passenger Car Association said on Friday.

Rao Da, the association's secretary-general, said a total of 1,218,722 cars, sport-utility vehicles, multi-purpose vehicles and minivans were sold last month, an increase of 84.2 percent year-on-year and 5.1 percent from December.

Shandong's efforts to clean up clogged waterways prove futile

The Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, one of the world's largest water projects, has been delayed by about five years due to problems associated with water pollution, officials in east China's Shandong province said on Friday. Construction of the Eastern Route of the project, which aims to divert water from China's rainy south to its dry north, is now expected to be completed in 2013.

Ukraine to Buy 8.5 Billion Cubic Meters of Gas in 1Q

Ukraine will import 8.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia this quarter because of freezing temperatures, said Ihor Didenko, first deputy chief executive officer at NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.The country will keep its plan to import 27 billion cubic meters from Russia in all of 2010,

Iran's Azadegan Oil Field Output at 40,000 bpd

Daily output at Iran's Azadegan oil field has reached 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) and will soon hit 50,000 bpd, Deputy Oil Minister Seifollah Jashnsaz was quoted.

"The daily output of the Azadegan oil field reached 40,000 barrels following an increase of 13,000 barrels after the completion of seven new wells," Jashnsaz, who also heads the state National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), told the semi-official Mehr News Agency.

Power Import From India To Start Thru' Kushtia Border

Ramkrishnapur under Bheramara upazila in Kushtia has been primarily selected for setting up of 250KV power sub-station aiming electricity import from India.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/0jEGRWx1NEE/6183

For a while, when I was a student, I had an attic bedroom that was heated by a small coal fire, with a relatively short chimney up to the roof. I learned, fairly early on, that in starting the fire you needed a fairly high velocity air flow across the coals, and underlying firewood strips. And to get this I would rest a shovel over the front of the fireplace, and try and seal off the sides. I kept a small bellows beside the fire to help when this wasn’t particularly successful. When you are starting a fire underground the provision of air is critical, but when you are trying to burn the residual coke that is left, after the heat has cracked the rest of the oil and caused it to flow away, keeping that air flowing at a high enough rate to sustain the high-temperature burn becomes somewhat critical to most efficient operation, particularly if the air has to get through a sand layer to reach the fire.

This is the post on THAI – Toe to Heel Air Injection for the recovery of heavy oils, which is part of the ongoing technical post (tech talk) series that I write on Sundays. It is a subject that has been described several times in the past at The Oil Drum. I first mentioned it back in 2006 when the first underground test was underway at White Sands.

I used this illustration at the time.

It is an artist’s impression of a side view of the site, with the blue dotted horizontal line representing the recovery well and air being fed in from a higher well into the formation. The test at White Sands in Alberta has been followed by a test at Lloydminster in Saskatchewan which got underway in a more conventional heavy oil last October.

The Kerrobert project followed much on the procedures from the earlier test, and the currently planned full scale production at May River (Large pdf file)

Petrobank, which is partnered with Baytex Energy Trust on the 50/50 joint venture, recently sunk two vertical air-injection wells and two horizontal production wells into the extensive Mannville conventional oil reservoir near Kerrobert.

Compressed air was added last week after a temporary steaming of the ground to mobilize the oil around the injector site. With the addition of the air, spontaneous underground combustion has begun.

"I think we will see some oil as early as today," Bloomer said.

Don and Gail described the THAI process in 2007 and have given some history on its use, THAI having been patented by Petrobank who have a 12 minute video on the process and the first trial and preparation for full scale production. It is well worth watching.

Dave Murphy had an update on the EROI costs in March of last year.

While watching the video is the best way to understand the process, it can also be illustrated with a picture from the plan for May River and I will lift some parts of that document to describe what is planned for that site.

Illustration of the key parts of the process.

The horizontal wells are drilled (a suite of eighteen wells, each with a 2,000 ft horizontal section, spaced 410 ft apart) some 7 ft above the bottom of the formation (or the water table if that becomes an issue). Above these the air injection wells are drilled directionally and offset from the toe of the well. (By using directional drilling air injection can be better controlled than with the original vertical wells).

Layout of the air injection (upper) and production wells.

Once the wells are in position steam will be injected and circulated for a period of 3 months to bring the sand and bitumen up to around 100 deg C, then air will be injected to start combustion. The part of the bitumen that burns as the process develops is the residual asphaltene that is left after the lighter fractions are either evaporated, flow away at reduced viscocity or are cracked by the high temperature (> 400 deg C). The residual material, apparently about 10% of the OOIP, provides the fuel, driving some 90% of the fuel into the production well.

To sustain production after ignition and flame front stabilization has occurred, the wells will carry some 4.4 million cf/day into the formation, and about the same amount of a mix of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and hydrocarbon gas will be released. As the video notes that gas will be used on site to generate electricity to run the air compressors, and to provide site power. Based on the earlier tests the site is anticipated to generate some 10,000 bd of cracked bitumen, and about twice that in water production. The flame front will move forward at between 5 and 10 inches a day. The oil is projected to be a significant upgrade of the original bitumen. The water has the potential for being sold to other operators in the area for use in SAGD production.

Comparison of bitumen with THAI produced oil.

The energy efficiency of the site is anticipated to be 85.7%. It should be noted that the document I have taken this information from also contains a conservation and reclamation plan. (But at 653 pages long for the whole document I have only noted key passages for the theme of the post).

In response to my SAGD post both Rockman and RockyMtnGuy commented about using underground combustion to help with getting the bitumen from the oil sand.

One of the things that they were concerned about, as was I, is the control of the flame front which becomes more difficult as the height of the production zone is around 70 ft. However at May River they plan on burning from the outside in, so this may control the extent to which the fire overburns. In addition, as I noted at the beginning of the post, it is rather difficult sometimes to sustain the right temperatures without a high flow of air, and that may provide a further control.

The conditions are somewhat different at Kerrobert where the oil is less viscous and the formation is around 100 ft thick. This has caused some problems since the well flows exceeded what had been anticipated:

the original plan was to use temporary hydraulic pumps on each well to create a drawdown pressure across the horizontal well and, as combustion gas production increased, pumping would cease and wells would flow by produced gas lift.

Initial fluid production volumes were tested at 180 to 300 barrels per day per well, with oil cuts ranging from zero to 40%. However, during the transition phase to gas lift it was learned that liquid inflow to the production wells exceeded the pump's capacity, which limited the ability to draw down the wells and caused frequent pump failures. On Dec. 21, the pump in KP1 was re-configured to improve its pumping capacity. Now KP2 is being re-configured and is expected to be producing at similar rates to KP1 within the next few days.

Since the re-configuration, fluid production rates from KP1 have ranged between 250 and 420 bbls per day with oil cuts averaging 36% and reaching as high as 65%. Also, the air injection rate was increased to 50,000 cubic metres per day and the produced gas rate has increased to 8,000 cubic metres per day.

Looks as though things are going quite well.

Oh, and the disadvantage of having a small coal fire in a garret flat is that during the night it went out, and in the morning I would occasionally wake up with snow in the grate.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/ggn04ocbyYM/6192

UK gas traders not worried by cold weather forecasts

Freezing temperatures in the UK this week are expected to tighten the gas supply-demand balance but gas prices will be capped by partially replenished mid-range storage and demand ceilings of around 420 million cubic meters/day, UK gas trading sources said Monday.

The Rough storage facility is down to 40% of capacity, and short-term storage capacity is also below 50%. The comparative levels held in storage now are far below levels seen even four weeks ago following prolonged heavy draws as the country dealt with the last spell of severe winter weather.

So far the gas market has absorbed the impact of the relatively cold winter without any significant impact on the curve, with summer 10 gas trading roughly stable at 33 pence/therm and winter 10 gas at 45.5 p/therm.

UK prompt power edges up on cold-induced hike in gas prices

UK power for delivery on the next working day inched higher Monday on a cold-weather induced increase in the price for natural gas, the fuel for over two-fifths of the country's power generation, although gains were limited on expectations that healthy margins could soak up any demand increase, traders said.

Working day-ahead baseload power rose 15 pence to GBP36.40/MWh ($56.67/MWh, Eur41.52/MWh) by 12:00 GMT, while day-ahead peak was flat around GBP40.25/MWh. . .

"There's so much plant out there right now that you could double demand and power would still trade off fuels," one trader said.

"We really need to see a chunk of cheap plant to come offline to see some action," the trader added.

Roundtable discussion of the top oil stories of the week (Podcast)

Peter Zipf, Beth Evans and Jeff Mower discuss the three top oil news stories of the week, including earnings results and how this relates to market developments, the new renewable fuels standard and biofuels approach, and the fiscal 2011 US budget, which may include a repeal of tax breaks for the oil and gas industry.

At least 5 dead in Connecticut power plant blast

Fire officials said a natural gas leak caused the blast during testing at the Kleen Energy Systems LLC facility, which was 95 percent complete and due to come online this summer as the largest electricity generating plant in New England.

As many as 200 workers were at the site on any given day and the exact number of dead and injured would not be known until each contractor provided a list of employees, Middletown Mayor Sebastian Giuliano told a press conference.

Credit Suisse survey finds bearish sentiment on US gas prices

Energy investors surveyed by Credit Suisse are bearish on US natural gas prices in 2010, but bullish on natural gas stocks, Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Wolf said Friday.

Financial and energy professionals believe gas prices will average between $5 and $5.50/MMBtu this year, slightly below pricing suggested by the NYMEX futures curve. Credit Suisse surveyed attendees at the bank's Energy Summit in Vail, Colorado earlier this week.

The reason for the gloominess? Liquified natural gas, respondents indicated.

Cape Wind fight goes on

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar journeyed out into Nantucket Sound on a Coast Guard vessel last week to signal the Obama administration's readiness to put some muscle behind wind energy. To do that, Salazar has to resolve a battle over building a wind farm on 25 square miles of open water that has driven a rift between environmentalists, infuriated local Native Americans and threatened one of the administration's cherished priorities.

Iran’s President Moves Ahead on Uranium Processing

Iran’s president ordered his atomic scientists on Sunday to begin enriching their stockpile of uranium in order to power a medical reactor, a move that accelerated Iran’s brinkmanship over its nuclear program by moving the country closer to producing weapons-grade fuel.

Earth, wind and wire: Going beyond solar panels

Not long ago, people who wanted to generate their own green energy at home had to content themselves with rooftop solar panels. But new technologies -- and hefty government subsidies -- are now allowing homeowners to tap the wind, the Earth and other renewable sources in their own backyards. Call it the green evolution.

The cost of heating and cooling with fossil fuels has nowhere to go but up, thanks to rising global demand and increased regulation of carbon emissions. Turning one's home into a clean mini-power plant is getting cheaper and easier all the time.

CTA's Doomsday service faces its first rush hour

Predictable as it was that the threat of previous CTA service cuts would not be carried out, it was even more obvious there was no stopping them this time.??The questions now are:??What will it take to forge successful negotiations between CTA management and the transit agency's labor unions (since neither the city of Chicago nor the state of Illinois is willing to put skin in the game)???How long will it take? Is Henry Kissinger or Al Sharpton available to help move things along???How soon could full service be restored?

Canal expansion may spur switch to shipping

Chinese toys and sneakers headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. on the U.S. East Coast may bypass Warren Buffett's $33.8 billion railway as the expansion of the Panama Canal slashes the cost of shipping them by sea. The deeper, wider canal will allow A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, China Ocean Shipping Group Co. and other lines to ship more cargo directly to New York and Boston instead of unloading it on the West Coast for trains and trucks to finish the journey east. That could save exporters 30 percent, the canal operator said.

Wind industry picks up, but jobs decline

America's wind energy industry enjoyed a banner year in 2009, thanks largely to tax credits and other incentives packed into the $787 billion economic stimulus bill. But even though a record 10,000 megawatts of new generating capacity was created, few jobs were created overall and wind power manufacturing employment fell — a setback for President Obama's pledge to create millions of new "green jobs." Obama has long pitched green jobs, especially in the energy, transportation and manufacturing fields, as a prescription for long-term, stable employment and a prosperous middle class.

But those jobs have been slow to materialize, especially skilled, good-paying blue-collar jobs such as assembling wind turbines, retrofitting homes to use less energy and working on solar panels in the desert.

Gas price slump stings BG

UK-based integrated gas giant BG Group saw profits from continuing operations slip 15% year on year to £592 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 amid a sharp decline in natural gas prices.

Blizzard bumps oil prices

Oil prices reversed some of last week's losses today and rose from a seven-week low to near $72 a barrel, spurred by bargain hunting and hopes that a blizzard in the US mid-Atlantic region would boost fuel demand.

Santos unveils reserves bonanza

Australian independent Santos said it had boosted total proved and probable reserve at the end of last year by 42%, or 427 million barrels of oil equivalent, year-on-year to a total 1.44 million boe.

The company said reserves were plumped by a 60% year-on-year increase in proved and probable coalbed methane reserves to 3748 petajoules (about 100 billion cubic metres), which included its first booked reserves after entering the Gunnedah basin in 2007.

EPA lowers cellulosic ethanol standard for 2010

The US Environmental Protection Agency published guidance for the second phase of the renewable fuels standard (RFS2) Feb. 3, directing refiners to ensure that the gasoline pool contains 8.25% ethanol. ??The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) required sales of 12.95 billion gal of renewable fuel in 2010. EISA created a second, expanded version of the RFS, known as RFS2. ??The RFS2 rules from EPA originally were scheduled for release Jan. 1, 2009, but EPA delayed the release until this year. ??For the first time, EPA announced volume standards for specific categories of renewable fuels. The 2010 cellulosic ethanol standard is 6.5 million gal, down from the 100 million gal that Congress established in 2007.

Cellulosic shortfalls of two companies led to RFS target cut: EPA

Two companies expected to produce the bulk of the earlier estimate, Cello Energy and Range Fuels, "have delayed or reduced their production plans for 2010," according to the EPA documents.

Cello and Range could not be reached for comment on Friday. . .

Uncertainties about Cello surfaced during a trial last summer where evidence was submitted that showed production from Cello's biodiesel plant did not contain any bio-based carbon. The company claimed it could turn cellulosic material, used tires and plastics into fuel, according to court documents.

US renewable, efficiency standard could save $113 billion: UCS

A federal renewable energy standard of 25% by 2025 combined with an energy efficiency standard of 10% by 2020 could save US electricity consumers $113 billion by 2030, the Union of Concerned Scientists said Friday in a new analysis.

The two standards also would boost renewable energy generation by 23%, the group said.

While job numbers proliferate, is 196,000 a good one?

The consulting firm Navigant said Thursday that by its estimates there are 196,000 people in the US currently employed in the renewable electricity industry.

Job numbers are often carelessly tossed around. Nonetheless, Navigant said in its study that if there is a 12% national RES established for 2014, there could be 67,000 more jobs in the sector by then. A 20% RES target in 2020 would add 191,000 jobs, and a 25% RES target for 2025 would add 274,000 jobs.

For 2025, with a 25% national RES, Navigant broke down the new jobs this way: 116,000 in the wind industry, 60,000 in biomass-related jobs, 50,000 in the solar sector, 34,000 in the hydro sector and 15,000 in the waste-to-energy area.

IADC/SPE: Project is devising autopilot drilling standards

A Research Council of Norway joint industrial project, AutoConRig, aims to develop standard communications for the drilling process, build a framework for autonomous machine control, and create and maintain explicit specifications of shared concepts among drilling centers, reservoir and production centers, operations and maintenance centers, environment centers, and field operations. ??AutoConRig, started in 2008, is part of a larger project, Integrated Operations in the High North, that plans to develop an advanced infrastructural framework of integrated operations off Norway.

Intervention boosts Beatrice field oil flow

he Ensco 80 jack up has moved off the field, which is in the Inner Moray Firth area, after refurbishing and restarting three wells tied into the Beatrice Bravo platform. Ithaca, operator of Beatrice field under a lease from Talisman Energy Inc., had expected the production boost to be about 500 b/d. ??The company attributed about 1,000 b/d of the incremental production to the B11 well, in which intervention included perforation across a previously untapped section of the Middle Jurassic Beatrice reservoir to access an undrained part of the field.

French refining industry situation 'critical'

The French refining industry faces a “critical” situation as part of a European system in which “between 10 to 15% of the 114 refineries should be shut down to restore a demand-supply balance,” says the leader of a trade group. ??Jean-Louis Schilansky, president of Union Francaise des Industries Petrolieres (UFIP), gave that assessment at a press conference Feb. 4 in Paris. ??In an industry outlook, Schilansky noted that demand for oil products in France last year dropped by 2.8% in a change he called “structural.” ??Refinery runs for all of last year fell to 72 million tonnes from 84 million tonnes in 2008 as margins diminished.

Valero buys Wisconsin ethanol plant

Valero Renewable Fuels Co. LLC has completed the purchase of a 110 million gal/year ethanol plant near Jefferson, Wis., from privately held Renew Energy. ??The purchase price is $72 million. Renew Energy filed for bankruptcy early last year after 6 years of operation.

Gas pipeline blown up in Quetta

Unknown miscreants have blown up a gas pipeline with explosives located on western bypass here in Quetta on Sunday, Geo news reported. According to police sources, the gas pipeline was under construction when unidentified men blew it up with explosives, but however, the explosion did not result in suspension of gas supply to area.

Nigerian militants say disabled Shell oil pipeline

A Nigerian militant group said on Sunday it had attacked a Royal Dutch Shell oil pipeline in the Niger Delta but the Anglo-Dutch company said it had no reports of any such sabotage.

The Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC), a coalition of ex-militants and community leaders, said in a statement it had disabled a trunk line in the Obunoma area of Rivers state connecting several flow stations to the Bonny export terminal.

Production in Dubai’s new oil field to begin in a year

The Media Office of the Dubai Government said today that the commercial production of oil from the newly discovered ‘Al-Jalilah’ oilfield will start in an year.

Research and initial exploration in the new deposit off the coast of Dubai located east of the existing Rashid oil field predicted the possibility of full scale commercial production within an year, said a statement from the Media office. Once operational the Jalilah Oilfield will be the fifth producing fields in the emirate since the oil was discovered in the sixties of the last century.

Fuel Subsidy: Governors Threaten Legal Action

Some state governments are preparing a legal action against the Federal Government for fuel subsidy deductions from the Federation Account which they claim are illegal and unconstitutional.

The past administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo had initiated the Petroleum Support Fund bill in 2006 to legitimise the deductions to fund the huge subsidy bill, but it is yet to be passed by the National Assembly.? Also, because of the deregulation programme of the government, the bill is not likely to be pursued any longer as government will no longer be involved in the pricing of petroleum products.

The 36 states of the federation, 774 local councils and the Federal Capital Territory contributed over N1.3 trillion to the subsidy fund between 2006 and last year, although only Lagos, Rivers and Abuja enjoyed the benefit of paying N65 per litre of petrol before the current fuel crisis crept in.

Addressing the food versus fuel debate in Ghana

The lines between energy and agriculture are becoming more blurred. As science advances, the use of biofuels in most parts of the world has continued to increase. One thing that has gradually come to stay and is in recently times attracting significant foreign investment in Ghana is energy crops. The last four years has seen Norwegian, Brazilian, Dutch, Swedish, German and British firms all competing for farmland to grow energy crops in different parts of the country.

The Iraqi oil conundrum

Speculation that Iraq's production could - in the not too distant future - exceed that of Saudi Arabia may still represent Washington's main strategy for postponing future severe global energy shortages.

Shareholder group calls on BP to rethink oil sands project

OIL giant BP is facing calls by a shareholder group to review its plans to invest in major oil sands projects in Canada. FairPensions, which lobbies for companies to adopt "responsible investment practices", has filed a resolution it hopes will be voted on at BP's general meeting in April.

The resolution calls for the risk and audit committees at Europe's second largest oil explorer to review factors such as future carbon prices, potential regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and possible risks to its reputation it might face from investing in oil sands projects.

China's economy set to grow 10%

AN OFFICIAL Chinese economic think tank has predicted the country's economy will grow by around 10 per cent this year. The Centre for Forecasting Science predicted that first quarter growth equivalent to 11 per cent in the first three months of the year would slow slightly during the rest of 2010.

Falklands oil prospects stir Anglo-Argentinian tensions

It does not look like much: a jumble of pipes, containers and drilling equipment sitting on a windswept jetty at Port Stanley. The hardware, however, signals an imminent search for oil and gas that could turn the Falkland Islanders into south Atlantic oil barons, a prospect that has already triggered a dispute between Britain and Argentina.

Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years

Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years.

The founder of the Virgin group, whose rail, airline and travel companies are sensitive to energy prices, will say that the ­coming crisis could be even more serious than the credit crunch.

Is diesel dead?

Diesel. Nasty oily stuff or thrifty saviour? Until fairly recently, you might have said that UK buyers were coming around to the second view.

In Europe, diesel's share of the new passenger car market has grown from 25 per cent to more than 50 per cent during the past decade, but in Britain, from a lower base, growth has been even faster during the same period (from 15 per cent to 43 and a bit). In recent months, though, Britain's love affair with diesel has lost its ardour.

China approves Gansu coal mining plan

Ningzheng mining region is located in eastern Gansu, covering an area of 1,100 square kilometers. The mining region was designed to produce 20 million tons of coal annually after construction, which will become one of the largest energy bases in Northwest China.

$60b Aussie coal deal inked

Australian coal and iron ore company Resourcehouse said over the weekend it had signed a record $60 billion coal supply deal with Chinese power stations, a move analysts said underscored Chinese companies' growing demand for energy to fuel the country's economic development.

Resourcehouse will supply 30 million tons of coal annually over 20 years to China Power International Development Ltd, a unit of major power producer China Power Investment Corp (CPI), Clive Palmer, chairman of the Australian company, said on Saturday.

China's railways send 5m passengers by Feb 6

China's railway network has transported 5.03 million passengers as of February 6, the eighth day of the country's annual Spring Festival transport peak lasting from January 30 to March 10 this year, said the Ministry of Railways (MOR) Sunday. The figure was 105,000 more than that in the same time last year, up 2.1 percent year on year, according to the MOR.

Coal exporters face low prices costly transport

Coal exporters face a tough year without the cushion of forward selling at higher prices that helped get them through 2009, and with their familiar problem of high rail transport costs persisting. Exporters may have to cut production as they did in 2008-09 if prices slump and they cannot shift coal to Asia.

Russia, one of the world's top five coal exporters to Europe and Asia, will ship about 8 percent more thermal coal in 2010 than last year but will battle for more than a slim profit margin, analysts and exporters said.

The Role of Oil in the Iraq War

In truth, the oil production level in Iraq has deteriorated during that period compared to its levels under the former regime. Also, Iraq’s recent openness to the international oil companies in 2009 was not matched by a noticeable openness to American companies. It was the Asian state-owned companies (especially from Malaysia and China) that had the lion’s share, and only two American companies, ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum, were awarded contracts. More importantly, the American companies did not broadly participate in two other Iraqi tenders. Their refrainment from competing with other companies was thus notable and remarkable, especially Chevron which withdrew in the last minute.

Government's switched on energy move

ALL Australian homes will soon have to undergo a mandatory energy-efficiency assessment costing up to $1500 per property. The assessment has to be done before any property can be sold or rented under new laws to tackle carbon emissions.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/s9SPu-M1aGM/6191

Back in October, I participated in the 2^nd International Biophysical Economics Conference at SUNY-ESF in Syracuse, New York. Charlie Hall had written to me, inviting me to come and give a talk. Specifically, he wanted me to go back to my post from January 2008 called Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008 and explain why my forecasts had turned out pretty close to correct, while many others widely missed the mark. The title he suggested for the talk was Delusions of Finance.

My financial forecast really has implications for beyond 2008, so I added some more forecasting thoughts as well. In this post, I would like to share this presentation with you. A download of the presentation, plus an audio recording, are available at the Biophysical Economics Conference Proceedings website under Gail Tverberg.

I am a casualty actuary by training and spent many years doing forecasting and modeling as an insurance company employee and later as a consultant to insurance companies. Many of these companies were small medical malpractice insurance companies that provided insurance for a group of hospitals or physicians. Medical malpractice claims are notoriously slow to be reported and to be paid, so we had to forecast many years of reporting and payments, (and corresponding investment income). These models were used both for determining appropriate insurance rates and for determining balance sheet reserves for these companies. Quite often I was involved in putting together models for proposed new companies in order to estimate likely capital requirements. I was also prepared a lot of estimates of the likely impacts of medical malpractice reforms.

All of this didn't really give me any special training for making financial forecasts relating to peak oil, but it did give me a lot of practice with making forecasts and trying to think outside the box. I needed to figure out what was unique to each situation, and figure out a way to model it. I hadn't gone through the standard MBA training, but I had bumped up against a fair amount of it along the way.

My background goes back far enough that I had a chance to see how badly insurance companies fared back in the 1974 period, when oil shocks affected insurance companies. One of my former employers went bankrupt, and another one nearly did. I could see that if a similar situation happened now, other financial companies would likely be affected as well.

Quite a bit of the rest of this presentation is fairly self-explanatory, especially if you have seen some of my other presentations, so I won't provide too much in the way of comments.

Slide 3

This is a link to the full post. You may want to read it, if you haven't previously.

Slide 4

My later slides explain these points more fully.

Slide 5

Slide 6

Slide 7

If you stop to think about it, there a quite a few differences in the way the economy functions in a period of economic growth and in a period of economic decline. The assumption of continued economic growth by traditional economists (who don't consider resources and their limits) has been so strong that most have not even considered what the economy would look like in a period of long-term decline.

Slide 8

Many have observed that there would have been defaults, even without peak oil, because of the reckless lending that had been done. I would contend that at least part of the reason the lending had been done was to give the illusion of growth, when there really wasn't much apart from that generated from very loose lending standards. Furthermore, even if loose lending standards were part of the problem, the problems related to peak oil made it worse (and can be expected to cause more problems in the future).

Slide 9

When there isn't a problem like peak oil (or limits to growth in general), debt defaults are in fact pretty much independent. That is why the system for determining insurance charges to be included in the interest rates charged for loans worked pretty well until peak oil came along. In the absence of peak oil, a homeowner or businessman defaults because of some particular problems he or she has. Past history is likely to be predictive of the future, because while there are different individuals defaulting, the average number of defaults will tend to be pretty stable from year to year.

Slide 10

It is possible that there will be some loans in a declining economy, but their use will be much less widespread than we see today. Their cost will also tend to be higher.

Slide 11

When lending is increasing, businesses have more money to invest in new plants and equipment and homeowners find it easy to get loans of new homes or for home improvements.

Slide 12

As countries cut back their stimulus funds, the decline in credit available may be especially severe. I noticed this article this morning:

Lenders warn of mortgage shortages

Britain’s banks and building societies have warned that they will have to slash mortgage lending and raise rates on home loans if the government insists on prompt and full repayment of the £300bn they have received in state support since 2008.

Slide 13

Slide 14

In the US, homeowners used their homes as a piggy-banks when home values were rising. They could refinance their homes, remove the built-up equity, and buy new cars, furniture, and other things. When there are fewer home buyers (because of less loan availability), and continually declining values, the effect is reversed.

Slide 15

Credit problems are really what are likely to spread the lack of oil to a much broader reduction in fuel use, essentially through growing recession. This recession may affect OECD to a greater extent than non-OECD, but there are such great links between the two that I expect eventually all will be affected. This reduction in fuel use is likely to be described in the press as "reduced demand"--which it is, but because of recession induced by credit contraction (ultimately going back to lack of growth in oil supply).

Slide 16

Slide 17

Slide 18

I am sure that some trade will continue, even if countries have financial problems. But it seems to me that a very large amount of trade is needed to keep up our system at the current level. High tech equipment would seem to be hardest to create with local materials alone. We can make simple things, like wheelbarrows and shovels with recycled steel, but it is not clear that precision parts for things like computers and other high tech equipment can be made without exactly the right imports from around the world, and factories set up with the right controls.

Slide 19

These changes could start very soon. It is hard to know precisely how things will play out.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/PlsuhHIE8eE/3062-federal-

A new federal agency charged with reporting on climate change is being formed.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will set up the Climate Service using members of the National Weather Service and other NOAA offices.

Climate operations have been spred out among NOAA offices, but with more and more requests pouring in for information concerning climate change, officials decided to combine those efforts into one main office.  The Climate Service will be headquartered in Washington, D.C. with six regional directors elsewhere in the country.

The agency will still have to be approved by congressional committee, but if it clears all necessary hurdles, it should be up and running by the end of the year.

via Huffington Post

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/kceveo66Cxo/6194

UK gas rises as suspected field faults hit gas supply: sources

A gas shortage caused by several suspected faults affecting UK North Sea gas fields lifted prompt gas prices toward 40 pence/therm, traders said.

The Britannia gas field in the North Sea was said to have tripped after flows into Mobil's St Fergus terminal halved to 12 million cubic meters/day although that was not confirmed. The sharp decline started at around 09:00 GMT, with flows stabilizing at the new level thereafter.

Another unconfirmed fault was said to have cutback supplies into the Bacton Seal terminal, where flows have reduced to around 16 million cu m/d from 20 million cu m/d earlier in the day. Further aggravating several UK supply glitches, the Norwegian Langeled pipeline scaled back flows by 10 million cu m/d to 60 million cu m/d.

National Grid showed the system was 6 million cu m/d short, with demand estimated at 410 million cu m/d--still far outstripping seasonal norms.

Will Energy Plant Explosion Mean Higher Electric Rates?

In order to make the project come together, the state authorized Connecticut Light & Power to promise 15 years' worth of payments to Kleen Energy — in essence locking ratepayers into a long-term deal.

According to the plant owners' website, that contract would guarantee a 'strike price' of $13.40 per kilowatt/month. So if the wholesale market is paying $10 per kilowatt, the utility would have to pay $3.40 extra to Kleen Energy. But if the wholesale market is paying $15.40, Kleen would, in effect, have to pay CL&P $2.

These payments would account for 60 percent of the plant's revenues. With that contract, Kleen Energy was able to secure $1.3 billion in financing, including a debt issue by Goldman Sachs, trade journal ProjectFinance reported last year.

Austin Energy Revamps Solar Incentive Program

The municipal electric utility said the new approach saves $2.4 million over the life of the program compared to the old way of administering the program for those customers.

Rather than provide an upfront rebate on the installation of solar systems, Austin Energy will pay for each kilowatt-hour of electricity produced over a 10-year period. This is known as a fixed performance-based incentive (PBI) and it achieves two goals. First, it provides a fixed payment flow to a system owner by which payback can be calculated and second, it encourages proper design and maintenance of systems to maximize their production.

Over the next five years, the PBI program is expected to pay, on average, 8 cents per kWh of solar energy produced with program funding sufficient for almost 260 solar systems, each up to 20 kW in size. Total PBI payments over the next 14 years under the plan are projected at $4.8 million.

Venezuela offers carrot or stick in energy crisis

Facing anger at a major shortfall in electricity supply, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez promised consumers and businesses big discounts for slashing energy consumption, but ordered fines if they do not comply.

Spain Power Grid Can Feed 10M Electric Cars-Iberdrola Chmn

pain's electricity system can supply power to some 10 million electric cars if charging were to be made at night when general demand is low, Ignacio Galan, chairman of electricity company Iberdrola SA (IBE.MC), said Tuesday.

A gradual buildup of an electric car fleet will help the European Union to reach its targets for greenhouse gas emission cuts and renewable power penetration, he added. Galan spoke during a meeting with European Union competition ministers in the northern Spanish city of San Sebastian, Iberdrola said in a release.

Galan cautioned, however, that electric cars still need to overcome hurdles related to batteries, the buildup of a recharge system, and regulation.

Global oil prices to rise, weak refining to continue: Barclays

Global oil prices are set to strengthen while refining margins will remain weak over the next several years, Barclays Capital said in its Global Energy Outlook Monday.

The report cites Barclays' "preference for crude oil- and upstream-biased investments, relative to natural gas and downstream oil," adding there is "price support for crude in 2010 and even more so in 2011 as demand recovers, inventories return to balance and new supply slows."

In contrast, Barclays analysts said they "expect refining capacity additions to exceed demand growth at least until 2012."

Peak Oil Is a Crock

The good news about supply? Peak oil is a crock. There’s plenty of oil. It’s just harder to get to it now than it was 20 years ago. By the way, there’s also plenty of natural gas. Problem is, the natural gas is trapped in shale rock. And the oil is deep underground or below miles of sea or mixed with sand or in places where the underground pressure to bring it up has fizzled out.

The question isn’t whether the technology exists to get hundreds of billions of barrels out of the ground. The technology is there. But in many cases, deploying it is an expensive proposition.

How to light a fire under the oil companies? The answer doesn’t lie in government subsidies and grants. That’s the last thing the oil sector needs. Let the marketplace motivate them. Let supply run low and prices run high. With fat profit margins to fall back on, new technologies will be unleashed.

Ghana Blocks Exxon Oil-Field Deal

The government of Ghana blocked the estimated $4 billion sale of a stake in a huge oil field, foiling months of talks between potential buyer Exxon Mobil Corp. and the stake's owner, Kosmos Energy LLC.

The government accused Dallas-based Kosmos of cutting Ghana's state-run oil company out of discussions about the field's development and then sharing information about the field with potential buyers without government permission. The government in recent months itself has scouted for partners to work with Ghana's oil company, including state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp.

Ghanaian Energy Minister Joe Oteng-Adjei said state-run Ghana National Petroleum Corp. would be the only entity allowed to buy the Kosmos stake in the so-called Jubilee field.

Equipment for oil production in Jubilee Field arrive in Ghana

The sub sea equipment required for the production of oil from the Jubilee Field off the Coast of Ghana in the Western Region, have begun arriving in the country.

"This is a strong indication that the operator of Jubilee Field, Tullow Ghana Limited, is ready to produce first oil by the last quarter of this year," the company said in a statement issued in Accra on Monday.

Using Smokestack Gases to Pump Oil

Denbury Resources, Seeking Source of Carbon Dioxide for its Fields, to Scrub Emissions From Dow Chemical Plant

By mid-2011, Denbury plans to treat and ship its first batch of industrial emissions from a Dow Chemical Co. factory in Plaquemine, La., to its oil fields in Texas via a pipeline network it is building. Although the U.S. government recently announced funding for a host of other "industrial carbon capture" projects, the Dow project is unique because itappears to be economically viable without government aid.

Denbury wants to capture the entirety of the Dow plant's annual carbon-dioxide emissions, taking a liability off Dow's hands equivalent to the annual emissions of 27,000 cars. Denbury even would pay Dow as much as a few hundred thousand dollars a year pegged to rising or falling oil prices. Dow—the world's largest producer of ethylene oxide, a chemical building block used in products from beverage bottles to aircraft de-icers—says it "is open to similar [carbon dioxide] capture arrangements," spokesman David Winder said.

It's Official: The Oil Export Crisis Has Arrived (Chris Nelder)

Last March, my study of the effect of peak oil on U.S. imports had brought Mexico to the fore (“The Impending Oil Export Crisis”). As our #3 source of imports, the crashing of its supergiant Cantarell field had put the future of our oil supply into serious jeopardy.

The possibility that Mexico’s oil and gas exports to the U.S. could go to zero within seven years looked very real. . .

Now Venezuela has appeared on my radar for similar reasons…only this time we’re really going to feel it.

Welder's torch may have been cause of gas explosion at power plant

Investigators are focusing on a welder's torch as the possible cause of Sunday's deadly blast at the Kleen Energy Power Plant, sources said.

The explosion that killed five and injured more than a dozen occurred immediately after the purging, or cleaning, of the underground, natural-gas pipeline that runs about 800 to 1,000 feet through the Kleen Energy plant.

Sources familiar with the investigation and with the purging operation said that welding work wasn't entirely halted during or immediately after the purging Sunday morning. This operation can result in an accumulation of natural gas that must be vented from rooms and enclosures before other ignition sources, such as a welder's blow torch, can be safely introduced, experts said.

Gas-pipe purging linked to seven big explosions since 1997

The cause of the explosion at the Kleen Energy natural-gas plant has yet to be determined. But a federal safety board had recently urged stronger safety codes for the process of gas-pipe purging, which was under way at the plant in Middletown, Conn.

US urged new safety standards days before Middletown explosion

The US Chemical Safety Board, citing seven instances where workers died purging gas lines, released urgent new recommendations just three days before the Middletown explosion in Connecticut Sunday that killed at least five people.

Peak Oil in 5 Years:Virgin Boss Branson's Warnings

Of course it should be taken into account that Branson runs a major UK rail operator when he talks of the urgency of government action on peak oil. Similarly, Solarcentury founder Jeremy Leggett is hardly an impartial bystander. . .

Only a few short years ago, Peak Oil seemed to be the topic of choice for paranoid bloggers, the more radical environmentalists and fringe survivalist groups. Now the conversation is getting decidedly mainstream. Heck, even some folks at the IEA say peak oil could come sooner than we think. Given the context of our recent financial upheavals, Branson and Leggett's warnings to play it safe rather than sorry seem timely indeed. How else are we supposed to vacation in space when the oil runs out?

Despite millions in tax credits, wind-energy firms aren't hiring

Despite the Obama administration's efforts to create jobs making wind turbines in America, some companies say that sluggish demand for wind energy is holding them back.

The growth in wind-farm installations in the U.S. was a product of federal stimulus spending. Nonetheless, wind-equipment manufacturers cut as many as 2,000 jobs last year. According to the American Wind Energy Association, a trade group, the drop in U.S. jobs is due, in part, to the lack of a long-term national policy that would require a certain percentage of American electricity to come from renewable sources.

About half the wind turbines installed in the U.S. were made overseas.

A check with some companies that want to get into the wind-manufacturing business found that even some qualifying for clean-energy-manufacturing tax credits aren't able to create jobs quickly because they don't see enough demand for wind energy.

China denies $US60bn coal deal with Clive Palmer's Resourcehouse

CHINA's largest power company has denied it has signed a $US60 billion ($69.4bn) deal with mining millionaire Clive Palmer.

Mr Palmer said on the weekend his company, Resourcehouse, had signed a $US60bn, 20-year coal export contract with China Power International Development.??Announcing the deal, Mr Palmer said it was Australia's biggest ever export contract and would bring Resourcehouse's giant China First thermal coalmine in Queensland a step closer to reality.??But China's state-controlled Xinhua news agency has reported that China Power International Development, a unit of major power producer China Power Investment Corp, has denied the reports that it had signed a $US60bn coal-supply deal with Resourcehouse.

Clive Palmer corrects 'error' as China denies price talks have begun

MINING millionaire Clive Palmer has corrected his announcement of a $US60 billion ($69.5bn) coal-supply deal with China, after a Chinese company official said price talks had not yet started. Mr Palmer had said on the weekend that his company, Resourcehouse, had signed a major, 20-year coal export contract with China Power International Development.

China Plans to Increase LNG Imports on Gas Shortage

China plans to increase its imports of liquefied natural gas to ease a domestic shortage of the fuel, the official Xinhua News Agency reported today, citing Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration.

China’s gas companies should sign more long-term LNG contracts in order to take advantage of a global surplus of the fuel, Zhang was quoted as saying in the Xinhua report.

More on Virginia's Quest to Explore for Oil and Gas

API is closed today due to the weather. The heavy snowfall has made travel - including commuting - to and from the nation's capital extremely difficult and even dangerous. Today, I'm working from a remote location where I have heat, electricity and connectivity, making me much more fortunate than many of my colleagues who live in areas with downed trees and power lines.

On the Internet today, I had the opportunity to read an interesting article in the Los Angeles Times, which describes some of the issues surrounding Virginia's desire to explore for oil and natural gas 50 miles off its coastline.

Energy realism: ExxonMobil and wind

In other words, wind power is already amongst the cheapest source of electricity, and if any minimal accounting for some externalities is put in place (such as a price for carbon emissions), it becomes the cheapest. Of course, as we know, "cheapest" does not necessarily translate into "most profitable."

Does peak demand = peak supply?

Last week’s post about Tony Hayward’s comments on ‘peak demand’ attracted some good comments. Here’s our response as a post - since it got rather long:

Firstly, audio of the Hayward interview is now online here. There are some other interesting comments that weren’t picked up in the print reports, including the world’s ability - and particularly China and India’s - to handle high oil prices.

The dirty fuel/developing countries conundrum

Despite the largely disappointing outcome of Copenhagen and the fact that worldwide emissions are growing apace, there are still optimists in the clean energy sector. These individuals would have us believe there is a kind of unassailable momentum made up of political sentiment, fear of regulation, and consumer and shareholder insistence.

There’s some evidence for this argument, though it’s mostly limited to developed countries, where demand for some types of energy are peaking anyway. For example: a couple of weeks ago we looked at a report about the death of US coal. The news flow since then on coal has yielded quite a few arguments in favour of the optimistic line. The chief executive of Alstom, which makes all kinds of power plant turbines, was reported as saying at Davos that renewables and nuclear growth will outpace coal.

Chavez declares "electricity emergency" in Venezuela

Despite its huge crude reserves, the South American OPEC member relies on hydro-electricity for 70 percent of its power needs, and a drought has hit supply since late 2009.

"We are ready to decree the electricity emergency, because it really is an emergency," Chavez said in the first edition of a show on state radio air waves called "Suddenly Chavez."

With electricity cuts weighing on Chavez's popularity ahead of important legislative elections in September, the government blames the shortages on the drought and soaring demand during five years of economic growth until 2008.

Amtrak cuts some Tuesday service

Amtrak has cut several routes for Tuesday in advance of the approaching snowstorm due to downed trees and power lines on railroad tracks along certain routes.

Iran says it will build 10 nuclear plants, beef up military

Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced that Tehran had informed the United Nations' nuclear watchdog that it intended to launch construction of 10 new nuclear-fuel plants in the Persian calendar year starting March 2010 and begin producing 20%-enriched uranium to provide fuel for a Tehran medical reactor.

Iran Starts Higher Uranium Enrichment

Iran says it has begun enriching uranium to a higher level, defying international efforts to curb its nuclear activity.

Iranian state media reports the process started at Iran's Natanz facility Tuesday in the presence of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.

Iran told the IAEA Monday of its plans to enrich uranium to 20 percent in order to fuel a medical nuclear reactor.

Western powers are concerned that if Iran is able to enrich uranium to 20 percent, it could eventually produce weapons-grade uranium through the same process.

Biggest Boeing plane; successful first flight for 747-8 freighter

Boeing Co.'s giant 747-8 freighter — the biggest plane the company has ever built — successfully completed its first flight Monday, a year later than originally planned. The huge plane took off from Everett's Paine Field shortly after noon and returned to Paine at 4:18 p.m. PST after an approximately 3½-hour flight.

Lookout deck of world's tallest tower in Dubai unexpectedly shuts a month after opening

Electrical problems are at least partly to blame for the closure of the Burj Khalifa's viewing platform — the only part of the half-mile high tower open yet. But a lack of information from the spire's owner left it unclear whether the rest of the largely empty building — including dozens of elevators meant to whisk visitors to the tower's more than 160 floors — was affected by the shutdown.

The CTA's cold truth

Chicagoland commuters have grown accustomed to going to sleep with the threat of massive service cuts under their pillows, only to wake and find their problems magically gone. When Monday's rush hour dawned, though, the Chicago Transit Authority's $95.6 million deficit was still there. The bus wasn't. The CTA has been to the brink of disaster many times. It was often a bluff; there was always a bailout. It's no wonder unions and passengers seemed to expect this year's deficit to disappear. As the deadline loomed, the usual cries went up for the mayor, the governor, the General Assembly to "get involved." But the state's broke. The city's strapped. The fairy's dead.

Federal government closes: Why can't they all work from home?

closing down the federal government costs $100 million a day in lost productivity. Why can’t bureaucrats, you know, telecommute? Like everybody else does in this Era of the iPhone.

The answer to that is, they do. At least, some of them do. About 9 percent of eligible federal employees have approved telework agreements that allow them to work from home, according to an Office of Personnel Management (OPM) report from August 2009.

Young joins Murkowski in seeking study of deep-water Arctic port

U.S. Rep. Don Young has introduced a bill aimed at studying the potential for an Arctic deep water port. The measure is a companion bill to one introduced in December by U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Hawaii charges ahead with electric vehicles

Starting this month, state and county agencies buying new vehicles are required to give priority to electric vehicles, alternative-fuel vehicles and hybrids. And by the end of next year, government and private parking lots open to the public must have at least one space for electric vehicles and a vehicle charger for every 100 parking spaces.

Oil weighed down by demand jitters

Oil sank below $72 a barrel today, after rising nearly 1% the day before, weighed down by nagging worries over an uncertain demand outlook and the fiscal health of some euro zone countries.

Petrobras steps up drilling at Reconcavo

Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) authorised Petrobras to start exploratory drilling ahead of schedule at Block REC-T- 168 in northern Brazil during a 2 February board meeting, the ANP said in a document on its website. Petrobras has found oil or natural gas at 11 exploration wells it has drilled in the basin since 2001, according to ANP data, Bloomberg reported.

Praxair Awarded ExxonMobil Contract for Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Under the new contract, Praxair will install a new production facility to meet ExxonMobil's requirements for nitrogen. Operations from the new supply network are scheduled for start-up in the second half of 2011. Praxair will produce 85 million cubic feet per day of high-pressure nitrogen and additional quantities of liquid argon.

"We are pleased to be working with ExxonMobil on this exciting EOR project" said John Panikar, vice president, South Region, North American Industrial Gases.

ExxonMobil currently uses Praxair's nitrogen gas to increase the amount of oil recovered from its Hawkins plant. ExxonMobil will utilize additional nitrogen to help them recover more oil and natural gas reserves.

Husky Energy announces third significant gas discovery in South China Sea

An exploration well in the waters south of Hong Kong tested natural gas at an equipment restricted rate of 57 million cubic feet per day, with indications the Liuhua 29-1 well could produce more than 90 million cubic feet of gas per day in the future.

Husky chief executive John Lau says the discovery, and two others in the same block, support earlier estimates of up to six trillion cubic feet of natural gas initially in place for the area.

ENI, PPL start offshore oil, gas exploration

Although Pakistan has never been successful in exploring oil and gas reserves in offshore areas in the country, it is once again making all efforts to achieve the goal in the Arabian Sea.

The ENI Pakistan and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) have joined hands and started drilling Shark-1 offshore well on January 17. Total cost of the project is estimated at $44 million. The Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Syed Naveed Qamar said this at a press conference on Monday after returning from the drilling site.

Shark-1 is located in Indus M Block in the Arabian Sea, which is 87 kilometres southwest of Karachi. The block is a joint venture between ENI of Italy having a 70 per cent working interest and PPL with 30 per cent share.

REpower signs turbine towers deal with Welsh firm

REPOWER UK, the British division of the German renewable energy giant, has signed an agreement to buy most of its wind turbine towers from a domestic manufacturer. Edinburgh-headquartered REpower previously sourced the towers from its German parent company but yesterday revealed a deal with Welsh manufacturer Mabey Bridge.

India likely to face coal shock

India could face a ‘coal shock’ sooner than later if the power utilities do not wake up to the fuel security risks from stagnating domestic production and start planning long-term coal imports to meet the fuel shortage. Although big power producers like NTPC are already meeting domestic coal shortages with imports, they have not shown any urgency to get into long-term import contracts.

New Ukraine leader may still drive hard bargain on gas

Ukraine's likely new president has a more pro-Russian tinge but Kyiv's desperate public finances may mean he drives just as hard a bargain on gas issues as his confrontational, Western-leaning predecessor.

Aramco's Laser Invention is Used to Fingerprint Oil

Occasionally scientists develop an invention that turns out to have far more applications than originally thought. The Research and Development Center (R&DC) has built a truly unique instrument designed to identify oil by using a laser. The laser is used to excite the fluorescence spectra of oil within extremely short time frames — two to five nanoseconds. All the fluorescence data is coalesced, and two dimensional diagrams are produced, which serve as oil spectral fingerprints.

Oil Climbs Above $71 on Weather, Geopolitical Tensions

Reversing a steep sell off after three consecutive sessions on the downside, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange saw an uptick in trading Monday as concerned investors abandoned the dollar's safe havens to bet on riskier markets.

Peak oil in Davos: Oh yes it is, oh no it isn’t.

The title above was borrowed from the Financial Times. Last week the World Economic Forum in Davos celebrated its 40th anniversary and one of the sessions addressed the world’s energy security. The chairperson for the session was Daniel Yergin, the founder of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates). Before his departure to Davos the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote: “All the world loves a bringer of good news, so energy guru Daniel Yergin should by all rights be guaranteed a warm welcome at Davos this week”. The news that he bore with him was that “the awful day of ‘peak oil’, when the world will have depleted its finite hydrocarbon resources to the point where it can never again increase production, is still a long way off”. If, in fact, it becomes apparent that oil production actually reaches a peak then Daniel Yergin has a cop-out, “The big determinants (to global energy supply) are the above-ground risks — politics, the quality of decision-making, and costs and so on”.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/EcoGeek/~3/JDeFsYwc8a8/3063-chicago-

The Windy City area is capitalizing on its most famous attribute with a new wind-powered electric vehicle charging station.  Located in Highland Park, 30 miles outside of the city, the charging station uses electricity generated by Illinois wind farms for law firm Emalfarb Swan & Bain.

The charging station is the second in the country and the first in the continental U.S. to be powered by wind.  The other station is located in Maui, Hawaii.

The charge port was installed by Carbon Day Automotive, a distributor of the EV-charging leader Coulomb Technologies.  Carbon Day has also created a Solar Charge-Port that not only juices up EVs, but also collects, filters and recycles storm water through a Grey water filtration system for irrigation use.

via Green Car Advisor

 

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theoildrum/~3/1FnmCw64Wqk/6193

This is a guest post by Oil Drum reader Carl Henn.

I spend a lot of time reading The Oil Drum. It helps me to understand the nature of the energy and economic problems we face. These problems are complex and important, so it is easy to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to understand them. But it has become clear to me that we will have to address our problems without fully understanding the mess we are in. The average Oil Drum reader understands our problems far better than the average citizen. The average Joe may yet not have heard of Peak Oil, let alone the Export Land Model. We need to do more to share our knowledge. We are at the point where the overall understanding of Peak Oil will increase if a few of us read a bit less Oil Drum and write a few more letters to the editor.

I know many folks here have worked hard for years to spread the word. I salute your effort, and write today only to promote a tool that is too little used – letters to the editor.

Letters to the Editor are free and reach thousands of people. We can use them to spread awareness and understanding of our energy problems. I’ve been writing L2Es for 30 years have had several hundred letters printed. A few tips for getting printed:

Read the coverage of the topics you intend to respond to. You are much more likely to be printed if you respond to their editorial or news coverage rather than submitting a letter that doesn’t relate to recent stories.

• Respond quickly, hopefully within a day, not later than a week.


• E-mail it. Snail mail is too slow and needs to be retyped after receipt.


• Put the letter in the body of the e-mail, not in an attachment. Newspapers fear viruses and don’t open attachments.


• Don’t send longer letters than that paper typically prints. Usually not more than 300 words and in some papers 150 is all they’ll take.


• Never use facts or figures you aren’t sure of.


• Include your name, address and phone number. Most won’t print anonymous letters, and they frequently call or e-mail to confirm authorship and exclusivity.

As an Oil Drum reader you have probably already taken one key step – becoming well informed about your topic. This will be enough to respond to any number of articles and editorials in your local paper or the magazines you subscribe to. You may need to do more research to get up to speed on relevant local issues. Your local or state government is probably trying to build a highway or parking garage near you, which provides many opportunities for explaining peak oil. Or they may still be converting farmland to sprawl development, or cutting transit while still providing free parking. We live in a target rich environment.

The Writing Process

There are many approaches. Use what works for you. I try to read the newspapers at lunch. Most are online these days. Mull over the topics while walking the dog or hanging the laundry. Think about the facts you need, the concepts you wish to present, and metaphors you might use.

1^st draft: Get it out into words; don’t worry about spelling or organization.

2^nd draft: Fix spelling & grammar, read to see if it makes sense.

3^rd draft: Let it rest a bit. Go get a snack or read some e-mail to get distracted a bit before coming back. Now read it again. Revise and improve.

Remember your word count. If it’s over what they are likely to print, cut it back. Better for you to cut it than for them to not print it. You can drop the softening words like “as I see it”, “I would suggest” and “in my opinion”. You can frequently drop adjectives and retain the core meaning. If you are well over the count, drop whole sentences. You may need to present just one idea rather than a few. Practice a concise writing style. Be Steinbeck, not Faulkner.

In school you were taught to begin with a topic sentence, give two or three sentences in support and a concluding sentence that summarizes what you just said. That can work as a letter to the editor, but isn’t necessary. It moves slowly and eats up a lot of words. Another approach is to use a logic chain. Show people a better way to think about the topic. You can start in one place and end in another.

They may have taught you in school to never start a sentence with “but”. Forget that. “But” is a fabulous sentence starter in letters to the editor.

You may use humor, but avoid sarcasm. People might not get it, or you may come off as a know it all or jack ass. Never make fun of someone’s name.

Attack ideas or proposals, not motives or people. It’s rarely helpful to ascribe evil motives to people.

Be sure to include the title and date of the article or editorial you are responding to in your first sentence. You can work it into the sentence, or put it in parentheses at the end.

Some newspapers just won’t print about Peak Oil. It’s still good to send them L2Es. Management may change hands, or maybe a letter will finally sink in someday. Or look for other outlets in the same paper. The Washington Post will rarely acknowledge Peak Oil except to deny it’s a problem on their opinion page, but I still managed to get it in through the “Dr. Gridlock” column. Don’t overlook newspapers that you typically disagree with. The more you disagree, the more opportunities you have for letters to the editor. I’ve had a boatload printed in the Washington Times with whom I typically disagree.

If you are printed, be sure to read the next few weeks' papers to see if they print a reply. Some papers will print a rebuttal to a reply. Even if they don’t, it's good for the editor to know you had a good reply.

Here are a few sample letters. Feel free to steal these words when sending in your own letters. You may find a few words that I took from you… (Thanks)

Washington Times

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/05/even-if-the-globe-isnt-w...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/may/13/20070513-100738-4097r/?p...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/23/oil-lamp-getting-darker/

Washington Examiner

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/Letters-from-Readers-8629405.html

http://www.examiner.com/a-1444895~Letters__June_17__2008.html

http://dev.www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/Letters-from-Readers-86294...

Baltimore Sun

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2007-03-26/news/0703260138_1_rosewood-c...

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2006-07-19/news/0607190228_1_icc-oil-su...

Atlantic Monthly

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200610/letters

Government Executive Magazine

http://www.govexec.com/features/1005-01/1005-01letters.htm

Gazette Newspaper

http://www.gazette.net/stories/06172009/montlet173628_32547.shtml